University of California at Davis '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.70 (fleet 0.96) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 4–10 (29%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 4–10 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (14 matches) the record is 4–10 against 1.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.5). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-02-10 | Cal Team Race | skipper | 0.23 | 1.84 | 4–10 | 1.5 | +1.61 | 3.2 | 4% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Peter Wenner Rainbow Invite | Skipper | B | 5 | 7.4 | 0.60 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Stoney Burke Varsity | Skipper | A | 11 | 11.1 | 1.91 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | A | 8 | 16.8 | 0.07 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Western Canada Cup | Skipper | B | 6 | 9.5 | -0.77 |
| Mustang Open Varsity | Skipper | A | 6 | 14.2 | 0.40 |
| Jeff Simon Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 14.0 | 0.33 |
| Anteater Open | Skipper | A | 9 | 7.9 | 0.92 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Frosh/Soph | Skipper | A | 9 | 13.9 | 0.98 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 11 | 13.5 | 1.05 |
| 2019 Rose Bowl Regatta | Skipper | B | 9 | 13.8 | 1.42 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Mustang Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 21.1 | 0.42 |
| Jeff Simon Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 10 | 23.0 | -0.32 |
| Cal Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 29% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| UCSD Frosh Soph Regatta | Skipper | A | 4 | 17.0 | -0.26 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship - 2 division | Skipper | B | 7 | 16.4 | 0.60 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 7 | 16.4 | 0.60 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Mustang Open | Skipper | A | 11 | 18.0 | -0.11 |
| Jeff Simon Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 8 | 16.4 | -0.08 |
| Anteater Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 18.0 | -0.64 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
