University of California at Davis '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.21 (fleet -0.29) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 4–10 (29%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 4–10 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (14 matches) the record is 4–10 against 1.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.5). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-02-10 | Cal Team Race | skipper | -0.19 | 1.42 | 4–10 | 1.5 | +1.61 | 3.2 | 4% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Mustang Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 24.5 | -0.07 |
| Jeff Simon Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 10 | 20.9 | -0.25 |
| Cal Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 29% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| UCSD Frosh Soph Regatta | Skipper | B | 5 | 13.0 | -0.31 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Champs - JV | Skipper | A | 7 | 12.9 | 0.05 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Mustang Open | Skipper | B | 11 | 20.1 | -0.57 |
| Jeff Simon Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 8 | 19.2 | -0.88 |
| Anteater Open | Skipper | B | 12 | 17.3 | -0.93 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Fall PCC - JV | Skipper | B | 2 | 15.0 | -2.12 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
