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Cal Team Race

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 7,339 team race matches sailed before 2017-02-11, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 20 of 20 matches (100%) with a log-loss of 0.278 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.80 ± 0.42: an orderly event, more orderly than 99% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Cal Poly University S.L.O.
Mustang		16.19
school +0.07		Ben Brough / Helen Payne 2.26
Liam Hood / Alyson Crowley
Joseph Lausten / Belle Lemoine 1.74 6–0
David Cornella / Haley Weber 1.88 2–0		79%8–0 (100%)+1.7
2University of California at Berkeley
Bears		25.93
school −0.28, home +0.23		Andrew Solomon / Cameron Juybari 2.29
Ian Markowitz / Ekaterina Goncharova 1.66
Elizabeth Hansen / Eric Witte		75%6–2 (75%)−0.0
3California Maritime Academy
Keelhaulers		34.68
school −0.17		Benjamin Rohr / Logan Allen
Julian Martinez-Prado / Ronan Lundegaard
Skylar Bayman / Kian Patrick		46%4–4 (50%)+0.3
4University of California at Los Angeles
Bruins		44.00
school −0.10		Nicholas Lenz Lenz / Laura Roudebush
Leah Ford / Maddy Kuhn
Abraham Dearden / Zoe Hessler 0–4
Abraham Dearden / Arjun Boddu 2–2		28%2–6 (25%)−0.2
5University of California at Irvine
Anteaters		53.69
school −0.11		Brian Maclean / Christian Parizea 1.67
Samuel Rohrbach / Christoph Steefel
Erika Barth / Sarah Imai		22%0–8 (0%)−1.8

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Cal Poly University S.L.O.6.199.198–06.3≥+3.002.713%
3California Maritime Academy4.684.904–43.7+0.220.156%
2University of California at Berkeley5.935.936–26.0−0.010.069%
4University of California at Los Angeles4.003.842–62.2−0.160.072%
5University of California at Irvine3.690.690–81.8≤−3.002.9>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Ben BroughCal Poly University S.L.O.2.265.268–06.3≥+3.002.713%
Joseph LaustenCal Poly University S.L.O.1.744.746–04.5≥+3.002.516%
Benjamin RohrCalifornia Maritime Academy1.661.884–43.7+0.220.156%
Andrew SolomonUniversity of California at Berkeley2.292.296–26.0−0.010.069%
Ian MarkowitzUniversity of California at Berkeley1.661.656–26.0−0.010.069%
Elizabeth HansenUniversity of California at Berkeley1.791.786–26.0−0.010.069%
Nicholas Lenz LenzUniversity of California at Los Angeles1.110.952–62.2−0.160.072%
Leah FordUniversity of California at Los Angeles1.171.012–62.2−0.160.072%
Abraham DeardenUniversity of California at Los Angeles1.291.132–62.2−0.160.072%
Brian MacleanUniversity of California at Irvine1.67-1.330–81.8≤−3.002.9>99%
Samuel RohrbachUniversity of California at Irvine1.15-1.850–81.8≤−3.002.9>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
12California Maritime AcademyUniversity of California at Irvine73%
13University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Los Angeles90%
14Cal Poly University S.L.O.California Maritime Academy83%
16University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Irvine91%
17California Maritime AcademyUniversity of California at Los Angeles70%
18Cal Poly University S.L.O.University of California at Irvine93%
110University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Irvine54%
112Cal Poly University S.L.O.University of California at Berkeley56%
114Cal Poly University S.L.O.University of California at Los Angeles90%
115University of California at BerkeleyCalifornia Maritime Academy78%
217California Maritime AcademyUniversity of California at Irvine73%
218University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Los Angeles87%
219Cal Poly University S.L.O.California Maritime Academy79%
221University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Irvine90%
222California Maritime AcademyUniversity of California at Los Angeles67%
223Cal Poly University S.L.O.University of California at Irvine92%
225University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Irvine57%
227Cal Poly University S.L.O.University of California at Berkeley55%
229Cal Poly University S.L.O.University of California at Los Angeles88%
230University of California at BerkeleyCalifornia Maritime Academy76%

Round 1

TeamRec.MustangBearsKeelhaulersBruinsAnteatersAggies
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang5–0✕WWWWW
University of California at Berkeley Bears4–1L✕WWWW
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers3–2LL✕WWW
University of California at Los Angeles Bruins2–3LLL✕WW
University of California at Irvine Anteaters1–4LLLL✕W
University of California at Davis Aggies0–5LLLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.MustangBearsKeelhaulersBruinsAnteatersAggies
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang5–0✕WWWWW
University of California at Berkeley Bears4–1L✕WWWW
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers3–2LL✕WWW
University of California at Los Angeles Bruins2–3LLL✕WW
University of California at Irvine Anteaters1–4LLLL✕W
University of California at Davis Aggies0–5LLLLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1-2-3 def. University of California at Davis Aggies 4-5-6
2 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-4-5 def. University of California at Irvine Anteaters 2-3-6
3 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1-2-6 def. University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3-4-5
4 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1-2-6 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 3-4-5
5 University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1-2-3 def. University of California at Davis Aggies 4-5-6
6 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1-2-5 def. University of California at Irvine Anteaters 3-4-6
7 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 2-3-4 def. University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1-5-6
8 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1-2-5 def. University of California at Irvine Anteaters 3-4-6
9 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1-2-3 def. University of California at Davis Aggies 4-5-6
10 University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2-3-4 def. University of California at Irvine Anteaters 1-5-6
11 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-3 def. University of California at Davis Aggies 4-5-6
12 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1-4-5 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 2-3-6
13 University of California at Irvine Anteaters 1-2-3 def. University of California at Davis Aggies 4-5-6
14 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1-2-4 def. University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3-5-6
15 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1-2-6 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 3-4-5
16 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1-2-3 def. University of California at Davis Aggies 4-5-6
17 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-6 def. University of California at Irvine Anteaters 3-4-5
18 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1-2-4 def. University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3-5-6
19 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1-2-5 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 3-4-6
20 University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1-2-3 def. University of California at Davis Aggies 4-5-6
21 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1-2-6 def. University of California at Irvine Anteaters 3-4-5
22 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-3-5 def. University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2-4-6
23 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 2-3-4 def. University of California at Irvine Anteaters 1-5-6
24 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1-2-3 def. University of California at Davis Aggies 4-5-6
25 University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1-3-6 def. University of California at Irvine Anteaters 2-4-5
26 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-3 def. University of California at Davis Aggies 4-5-6
27 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1-2-5 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-4-6
28 University of California at Irvine Anteaters 1-2-3 def. University of California at Davis Aggies 4-5-6
29 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1-4-5 def. University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2-3-6
30 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1-2-3 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 4-5-6

Conditions — 02/11/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 65%  ·  Pressure 1022.4 hPa

Temperature

53°F
↑ 60°F   ↓ 43°F
Feels like 49°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.5 kn
avg  ·  max 5.6 kn
Gusts to 15.4 kn
From NW (317°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover10% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity65% Pressure1022.4 hPa

What this breeze does at Berkeley — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Berkeley in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.09)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Berkeley by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (24 labelled fleet-race days at Berkeley).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →