Gaucho Team Race

HostUC Santa Barbara
Date01/27/2018
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos 1	13–0
2	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustang	7–6
3	California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers	8–5
4	University of Southern California	Trojans 2	5–8
5	University of California at Berkeley	Bears	4–6
6	University of Southern California	Trojans 1	5–5
7	University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos 2	3–7
8	University of California at Los Angeles	Bruins	1–9

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 9,224 team race matches sailed before 2018-01-27, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 31 of 46 matches (67%) with a log-loss of 0.452 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.11 ± 0.36: a typical event, more orderly than 55% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1	1	10.82 school +0.45, home +0.43	Sterling Henken / Elizabeth Moody 3.24 12–0 Christopher Weis / Samantha Obel 3.30 12–0 Neil Stapleton / Claire Hunt 7–0 Lucas Pierce / Robert Johnson 7–0 Kristopher Swanson / Samantha Obel 3.01 1–0	99%	13–0 (100%)	+0.2
2	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang	7	6.37 school +0.19	Ben Brough / Grace Carrick 2.53 Alyson Crowley / Grace Vandervort 6–6 Liam Hood / Maddie Roman 1.71 6–6 Josselyn Verutti / Grace Vandervort 1–0 Alyson Crowley / Helen Payne 1–0	34%	7–6 (54%)	+2.5
3	California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	6	6.71	Johannes Mcelvain / Bennett Zemke 2.47 Benjamin Rohr / Emi Stephanoff 1.98 Jacob Fisker-Andersen / Matthew Thomas	42%	8–5 (62%)	+2.5
4	University of Southern California Trojans 2	5	6.89 school −0.41	Nicholas Stefanoni / Mackenzie Freeman Grace Yakutis / Melissa Schem Will Paulsen / Georgia Channing 3–4 Will Paulsen / Hope Modugno 2–4	47%	5–8 (38%)	−1.1
5	University of California at Berkeley Bears	4	6.50 school −0.14	Ciara Dorsay / Megan Grosspietsch Drake Hayes / Paris Sato Andrew Solomon / Ekaterina Goncharova 2.47	48%	4–6 (40%)	−0.8
6	University of Southern California Trojans 1	2	6.95 school −0.41	Peter Wong / Lorea Mendiguren 2.44 Paul Chyz / Clifford Lester Sarah Alexander / Kai Otsmaa	59%	5–5 (50%)	−0.9
7	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2	3	6.48 school +0.45, home +0.43	Kerri Luttrell / Jack Holbrook 3–4 Sampson Reynolds / Aine Roonan 3–4 Madeline Kraus / Marina Fennell 2–4 Dylan Finestone / Olivia Beers 0–5 Julia Downey / Aine Roonan 0–2 Madeline Kraus / Mary Toomey 1–1 Jack Holbrook / Kerri Luttrell 0–1	49%	3–7 (30%)	−1.9
8	University of California at Los Angeles Bruins	8	5.04 school −0.19	Laura Roudebush / Maddy Kuhn Nicholas Lenz Lenz / Abraham Dearden 1.73 Leah Ford / Hallie Muller 1.48	15%	1–9 (10%)	−0.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1	10.82	13.82	13–0	12.8	≥+3.00	0.3	82%
3	California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	6.71	7.88	8–5	5.5	+1.17	2.0	10%
2	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang	6.37	7.43	7–6	4.5	+1.06	1.9	10%
5	University of California at Berkeley Bears	6.50	6.10	4–6	4.8	−0.40	0.2	82%
6	University of Southern California Trojans 1	6.95	6.52	5–5	5.9	−0.43	0.3	84%
4	University of Southern California Trojans 2	6.89	6.42	5–8	6.1	−0.47	0.4	86%
8	University of California at Los Angeles Bruins	5.04	4.53	1–9	1.5	−0.50	0.2	82%
7	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2	6.48	5.52	3–7	4.9	−0.96	1.3	95%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Sterling Henken	University of California at Santa Barbara	3.24	6.24	12–0	11.8	≥+3.00	0.3	83%
Neil Stapleton	University of California at Santa Barbara	3.53	6.53	7–0	6.9	≥+3.00	0.1	92%
Benjamin Rohr	California Maritime Academy	1.98	3.15	8–5	5.5	+1.17	2.0	10%
Jacob Fisker-Andersen	California Maritime Academy	1.86	3.02	8–5	5.5	+1.17	2.0	10%
Ben Brough	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	2.53	3.59	7–6	4.5	+1.06	1.9	10%
Alyson Crowley	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	1.79	2.85	7–6	4.5	+1.06	1.9	10%
Andrew Solomon	University of California at Berkeley	2.47	2.07	4–6	4.8	−0.40	0.2	82%
Peter Wong	University of Southern California	2.44	2.01	5–5	5.9	−0.43	0.3	84%
Paul Chyz	University of Southern California	2.52	2.09	5–5	5.9	−0.43	0.3	84%
Sampson Reynolds	University of California at Santa Barbara	1.62	1.17	3–4	3.6	−0.45	0.2	83%
Laura Roudebush	University of California at Los Angeles	1.79	1.29	1–9	1.5	−0.50	0.2	82%
Nicholas Lenz Lenz	University of California at Los Angeles	1.73	1.23	1–9	1.5	−0.50	0.2	82%
Leah Ford	University of California at Los Angeles	1.48	0.98	1–9	1.5	−0.50	0.2	82%
Kerri Luttrell	University of California at Santa Barbara	1.65	0.95	3–4	4.1	−0.70	0.6	90%
Madeline Kraus	University of California at Santa Barbara	1.90	1.09	3–5	4.4	−0.81	0.8	93%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2	49%	upset
1	2	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1	University of California at Los Angeles Bruins	100%
1	3	California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	University of California at Berkeley Bears	53%
1	4	University of Southern California Trojans 1	University of Southern California Trojans 2	47%	upset
1	5	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1	University of California at Berkeley Bears	99%
1	6	California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	University of California at Los Angeles Bruins	82%
1	7	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang	University of Southern California Trojans 1	38%	upset
1	8	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2	University of California at Los Angeles Bruins	78%
1	9	California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	University of Southern California Trojans 2	43%	upset
1	10	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang	98%
1	11	University of Southern California Trojans 1	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2	63%
1	12	University of Southern California Trojans 2	University of California at Berkeley Bears	61%
1	13	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2	99%
1	14	California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang	57%
1	15	University of California at Berkeley Bears	University of California at Los Angeles Bruins	81%
1	16	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1	California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	99%
1	17	University of California at Berkeley Bears	University of Southern California Trojans 1	40%	upset
1	18	University of Southern California Trojans 2	University of California at Los Angeles Bruins	87%
1	19	California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	University of Southern California Trojans 1	44%	upset
1	20	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang	University of California at Los Angeles Bruins	77%
1	21	University of Southern California Trojans 2	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2	54%
1	22	University of Southern California Trojans 1	University of California at Los Angeles Bruins	87%
1	23	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1	University of Southern California Trojans 2	98%
1	24	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2	University of California at Berkeley Bears	51%
1	25	University of Southern California Trojans 2	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang	62%
1	26	California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2	55%
1	27	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1	University of Southern California Trojans 1	98%
1	28	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang	University of California at Berkeley Bears	44%	upset
1	29	California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	University of Southern California Trojans 2	45%	upset
1	30	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang	99%
1	31	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang	California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	40%	upset
1	32	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1	University of Southern California Trojans 2	98%
1	33	University of Southern California Trojans 2	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang	62%
1	34	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1	California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	99%
1	35	University of Southern California Trojans 1	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2	61%
1	36	University of California at Los Angeles Bruins	University of California at Berkeley Bears	18%	upset
1	37	University of California at Berkeley Bears	University of Southern California Trojans 1	39%	upset
1	38	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2	University of California at Los Angeles Bruins	84%
1	39	University of Southern California Trojans 1	University of California at Los Angeles Bruins	88%
1	40	University of California at Berkeley Bears	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2	46%	upset
2	41	California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	University of Southern California Trojans 2	46%	upset
2	42	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang	99%
2	43	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang	California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	39%	upset
2	44	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1	University of Southern California Trojans 2	98%
2	45	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang	University of Southern California Trojans 2	37%	upset
2	46	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1	California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	99%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	1	Mustang	Keelhaulers	2	Bears	1	2	Bruins
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1	13–7	✕	W	W	L	L	L	✕	W
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang	5–5	L	✕	W	L	W	L	L	W
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	7–3	L	L	✕	W	W	W	L	W
University of Southern California Trojans 2	10–10	W	W	L	✕	L	✕	W	W
University of California at Berkeley Bears	4–6	W	L	L	W	✕	W	W	L
University of Southern California Trojans 1	10–10	W	W	L	✕	L	✕	W	W
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2	13–7	✕	W	W	L	L	L	✕	W
University of California at Los Angeles Bruins	1–9	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	1	Mustang	Keelhaulers	2	1	2
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1	3–0	✕	W	W	W	W	✕
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang	2–1	L	✕	W	W	W	L
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	1–2	L	L	✕	W	W	L
University of Southern California Trojans 2	0–3	L	L	L	✕	✕	L
University of Southern California Trojans 1	0–3	L	L	L	✕	✕	L
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2	3–0	✕	W	W	W	W	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Mustang	1-2-6	def.	Gauchos 2	3-4-5
2	Gauchos 1	1-2-5	def.	Bruins	3-4-6
3	Keelhaulers	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
4	Trojans 1	1-2-5	def.	Trojans 2	3-4-6
5	Gauchos 1	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
6	Keelhaulers	1-2-3	def.	Bruins	4-5-6
7	Mustang	1-2-4	def.	Trojans 1	3-5-6
8	Gauchos 2	1-2-6	def.	Bruins	3-4-5
9	Keelhaulers	2-3-4	def.	Trojans 2	1-5-6
10	Gauchos 1	1-2-3	def.	Mustang	4-5-6
11	Trojans 1	1-2-5	def.	Gauchos 2	3-4-6
12	Trojans 2	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
13	Gauchos 1	1-2-5	def.	Gauchos 2	3-4-6
14	Keelhaulers	2-3-4	def.	Mustang	1-5-6
15	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Bruins	3-4-6
16	Gauchos 1	1-2-5	def.	Keelhaulers	3-4-6
17	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Trojans 1	4-5-6
18	Trojans 2	1-2-3	def.	Bruins	4-5-6
19	Keelhaulers	1-2-5	def.	Trojans 1	3-4-6
20	Mustang	1-2-3	def.	Bruins	4-5-6
21	Trojans 2	1-2-3	def.	Gauchos 2	4-5-6
22	Trojans 1	2-3-4	def.	Bruins	1-5-6
23	Gauchos 1	1-2-3	def.	Trojans 2	4-5-6
24	Gauchos 2	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
25	Trojans 2	1-2-4	def.	Mustang	3-5-6
26	Keelhaulers	1-2-3	def.	Gauchos 2	4-5-6
27	Gauchos 1	1-2-6	def.	Trojans 1	3-4-5
28	Mustang	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
29	Keelhaulers	1-2-6	def.	Trojans 2	3-4-5
30	Gauchos 1	1-2-4	def.	Mustang	3-5-6
31	Mustang	1-2-6	def.	Keelhaulers	3-4-5
32	Gauchos 1	1-2-6	def.	Trojans 2	3-4-5
33	Trojans 2	2-3-4	def.	Mustang	1-5-6
34	Gauchos 1	1-2-5	def.	Keelhaulers	3-4-6
35	Trojans 1	1-3-4	def.	Gauchos 2	2-5-6
36	Bruins	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
37	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Trojans 1	2-3-6
38	Gauchos 2	2-3-4	def.	Bruins	1-5-6
39	Trojans 1	1-2-6	def.	Bruins	3-4-5
40	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Gauchos 2	3-5-6
41	Keelhaulers	1-2-3	def.	Trojans 2	4-5-6
42	Gauchos 1	1-2-6	def.	Mustang	3-4-5
43	Mustang	1-3-6	def.	Keelhaulers	2-4-5
44	Gauchos 1	1-2-6	def.	Trojans 2	3-4-5
45	Mustang	1-3-4	def.	Trojans 2	2-5-6
46	Gauchos 1	1-2-5	def.	Keelhaulers	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos 1	Christopher Weis '18 Kristopher Swanson '18 Lucas Pierce '21 Neil Stapleton '18 Sterling Henken '18	Samantha Obel '21 Robert Johnson '19 Claire Hunt '19 Elizabeth Moody '20
Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustang	Alyson Crowley '20 Ben Brough '19 Josselyn Verutti '21 Liam Hood '20	Grace Vandervort '21 Helen Payne '19 Grace Carrick '18 Maddie Roman '20
California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers	Benjamin Rohr '19 Jacob Fisker-Andersen '21 Johannes Mcelvain '18	Emi Stephanoff '21 Matthew Thomas '21 Bennett Zemke '19
University of Southern California	Trojans 2	Grace Yakutis '20 Nicholas Stefanoni '21 Will Paulsen '19	Melissa Schem '18 Mackenzie Freeman '18 Georgia Channing '21 Hope Modugno '18
University of California at Berkeley	Bears	Andrew Solomon '18 Ciara Dorsay '21 Drake Hayes '21	Ekaterina Goncharova '18 Megan Grosspietsch '20 Paris Sato '21
University of Southern California	Trojans 1	Paul Chyz '18 Peter Wong '18 Sarah Alexander '19	Clifford Lester '19 Lorea Mendiguren '20 Kai Otsmaa '21
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos 2	Dylan Finestone '19 Jack Holbrook '21 Julia Downey '20 Kerri Luttrell '21 Madeline Kraus '20 Sampson Reynolds '21	Olivia Beers '21 Kerri Luttrell '21 Aine Roonan '21 Jack Holbrook '21 Marina Fennell '17 Mary Toomey '22
University of California at Los Angeles	Bruins	Laura Roudebush '18 Leah Ford '19 Nicholas Lenz Lenz '19	Maddy Kuhn '20 Hallie Muller '20 Abraham Dearden '20

Conditions — 01/27/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 35% · Pressure 1022.9 hPa

Temperature

64°F

↑ 69°F ↓ 53°F

Feels like 60°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

3.0 kn

avg · max 5.4 kn

Gusts to 25.1 kn

From WSW (246°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover76% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity35% Pressure1022.9 hPa

What this breeze does at UC Santa Barbara — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at UC Santa Barbara in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at UC Santa Barbara by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (46 labelled fleet-race days at UC Santa Barbara).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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