Navigate

2017 Cardinal Invite

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 34 34
2 University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 40 40
3 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 2 47 47
4 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 76 76
5 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 1 76 76
6 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 81 81
7 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 113 113
8 Santa Clara University Santa Clara University Broncos 2 118 118
9 Santa Clara University Santa Clara University Broncos 1 120 120
10 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 121 121
11 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 121 LOP 121 LOP
12 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 2 133 133
13 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1 138 138
14 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 4 179 179
15 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 183 183
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 TOT Sailors
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 1 1 1 6 7 2 3 4 1 3 2 1 2 34 Christopher Weis '18
Robert Johnson '19
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 2 2 4 2 5 3 1 2 2 2 7 2 6 40 Brian Maclean '18
Drake Baldwin '20
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 2 9 10 2 4 1 6 2 3 4 1 1 3 1 47 Russell Clarida '19 [1-10]
William Marshall '19 [11-13]
Sarah Placek '18 [1-10]
Cassie Obel '19 [11-13]
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 3 6 11 9 3 4 5 1 11 6 4 10 3 76 Abraham Dearden '20
Zoe Hessler '18
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 1 6 4 3 7 2 9 7 12 7 7 3 4 5 76 Nestor Cano Sostre '20
Olivia Gugliemini '19
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 8 3 10 1 4 1 6 14 3 5 6 6 14 81 Nicholas Lenz Lenz '19
Marianne Simpson '19
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 12 11 5 12 9 11 8 7 5 8 8 8 9 113 Kerri Luttrell '21
Aine Roonan '21
Santa Clara University Santa Clara University Broncos 2 14 12 7 10 6 13 12 6 9 13 5 7 4 118 Peter Collins '20 [1-10]
Briggs Lalor '21 [11-13]
Lilah Foster '21 [1-10]
Santa Clara University Santa Clara University Broncos 1 11 9 8 3 13 10 9 5 8 10 10 14 10 120 Robbie Culkin '19 [1-10]
Francesca Dana '18 [11-13]
William Pollard '18 [1-10]
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 4 7 6 8 12 7 13 13 12 4 12 11 12 121 Sampson Reynolds '21
Jack Holbrook '21
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 5 8 13 5 10 5 4 11 10 9 9 5 7 121 LOP Lorea Mendiguren '20
Caroline Gay '19
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 2 10 13 12 11 11 8 10 8 6 12 11 13 8 133 Joseph Lausten '18
Sean Leddy '21
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1 7 5 9 13 8 12 11 10 15 15 13 9 11 138 Liam Hood '20
Lauren Matich '21
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 4 15 14 14 15 15 15 14 9 13 11 14 15 15 179 William Boystak '19 [1-6, 11-12]
George Kripac '21 [7-10, 13]
George Kripac '21 [1-3]
Madeline Miller '20 [4-13]
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 13 15 15 14 14 14 15 15 14 14 15 12 13 183 Jason Nideffer '20
Christopher Steefel '18
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2009 (35 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 11112223334445
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 22223334445556
Santa Clara UniversitySanta Clara University Broncos 13334445556667
Santa Clara UniversitySanta Clara University Broncos 24445556667778
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans1515151112223334
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal 15556667778889
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal 266677788899910
University of California at IrvineUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters77788899910101011
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 188899910101011111112
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 299910101011111112121213
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons10101011111112121213131314
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 111111112121213131314141415
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 21212121313131414141515151
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 31313131414141515151112
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 41414141515151112223

Conditions — 10/28/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 57%  ·  Pressure 1012.9 hPa

Temperature

70°F
↑ 79°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 70°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.2 kn
avg  ·  max 4.9 kn
Gusts to 14.2 kn
From N (2°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover3% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity57% Pressure1012.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 7 kn · NW 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Stanford: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.11)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.02 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast +0.09
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.43 ± 0.10)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 10% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stanford by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (48 labelled days at Stanford).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →