Stanford University '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.88 (fleet 2.59) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 14–3 (82%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 14–3 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (17 matches) the record is 14–3 against 12.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-02-24 | 2018 Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 1.87 | 2.57 | 14–3 | 12.6 | +0.70 | 0.7 | 27% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| PCCSC South Designate | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.2 | 2.58 |
| 2018 St. Francis Invite | Skipper | B | 16 | 5.9 | 2.34 |
| 2018 Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 17 | 82% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | D | 13 | 11.3 | 2.80 |
| 2017 Cardinal Invite | Skipper | A | 13 | 5.8 | 2.54 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| StFYC Interconference | Skipper | B | 8 | 5.5 | 2.25 |
| South Designate | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.2 | 2.63 |
| Navy Spring | Skipper | B | 15 | 12.6 | 2.05 |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 10.0 | 1.16 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
