University of California at Los Angeles '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.80 (fleet 1.11) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 4–10 (29%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 4–10 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (14 matches) the record is 4–10 against 4.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-02-10 | Cal Team Race | skipper | 0.56 | 0.49 | 4–10 | 4.1 | −0.07 | 0.0 | 68% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Rainier Cup Varsity | Crew | A | 2 | 4.5 | — |
| Rainier Cup Combined | Crew | A | 2 | 6.0 | — |
| Mustang Open JV | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.0 | 2.21 |
| Jeff Simon Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 11.8 | 0.81 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Stoney Burke JV | Skipper | B | 12 | 4.8 | 1.22 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| PCCSC South Designate | Skipper | B | 12 | 15.5 | 0.31 |
| Mustang Open | Skipper | B | 8 | 15.5 | 0.82 |
| Jeff Simon Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 10 | 14.0 | 0.89 |
| Cal Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 29% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| UCSD Frosh Soph Regatta | Skipper | B | 4 | 12.5 | 0.18 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Champs - JV | Skipper | B | 7 | 7.1 | 1.02 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Francis Interconference | Crew | B | 3 | 24.0 | — |
| South Designate | Crew | A | 5 | 21.0 | — |
| Mustang Open | Skipper | A | 6 | 20.5 | -1.17 |
| Jeff Simon Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 5 | 18.4 | -1.88 |
| Anteater Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 18.0 | -2.24 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Stoney Burke JV Regatta | Crew | A | 2 | 16.0 | — |
| Stoney Burke | Crew | B | 2 | 23.0 | — |
| Pacific Coast Champs JV | Crew | A | 2 | 14.0 | — |
| UCSD Frosh/Soph | Crew | B | 5 | 15.8 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
