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UCSD Open Regatta

Analysis
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 1 11 Andrew Solomon '18
Linda Ge '17
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 4 4 4 3 2 4 1 5 27 Peter Wong '18
Natalie Millstein '18
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 5 2 2 2 8 9 3 2 33 Brian Maclean '18
Christian Parizea '18
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 7 3 7 5 5 1 4 3 35 Laura Roudebush '18 [1-8]
Natalie Taylor '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Grace Phillips '18 [3-4]
Zoe Hessler '18 [7-8]
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 3 5 3 4 3 7 7 4 36 Joseph Lausten '18
Belle Lemoine '19
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 1 2 6 6 9 7 2 9 6 47 Samuel Rohrbach '17
Christopher Steefel '18
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 9 10 5 7 4 8 5 7 55 Alexander Brocchini '17
Gabrielle Lange '18
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Dolphins 8 7 8 8 6 5 6 8 56 Andrew Clements '17
Kinsey Cohen '17
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 2 6 8 9 6 9 10 10 9 67 Jason Barr '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Grant Lin '17 [3-4, 7-8]
Adriana Guetter '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Robyn Gillum '18 [3-4, 7-8]
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 10 9 10 10 10 6 8 10 73 Jayden Potter '21 [1-8]
Jackie Shaff '19 [1-2, 7-8]
Brianna Pinto '20 [3-6]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 1 1 2 3 1 1 6 1 16 Paul Chyz '18
Melissa Schem '18
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 3 1 4 2 2 3 3 20 Ian Markowitz '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Cole Fargo '18 [3-4, 7-8]
Alexandre Mutricy '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Tyler Hogan '17 [3-4, 7-8]
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 3 2 3 2 3 5 1 2 21 Philip Tagatac '17
Frances Liu '18
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 1 8 7 4 1 7 3 4 4 38 Yan Rui Goheen '17
Young Jeong '19
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 4 4 8 6 5 4 7 5 43 Leah Ford '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Sarah Macpherson '18 [3-4, 7-8]
Cole Caracappa '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Ryan Messick '20 [3-4, 7-8]
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 5 6 6 9 6 6 2 6 46 James Melvin '19
Francine Brownell '19
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 2 7 5 5 5 8 DNF 5 8 54 David Luu '17 [1-4]
Hayley Chong '17 [5-8]
Lauren Liu '17 [1-4]
Courtney Wing '18 [5-8]
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 6 8 7 8 4 7 8 7 55 James Kerman '17 [1-8]
Rachel Hunter '19 [1-4]
Kevin Zhang '20 [5-8]
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 9 9 9 10 9 8 10 10 74 Joseph Naro '18
Ivana Morris '17
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Dolphins 10 10 10 7 10 9 9 9 74 Justin Clements '19
Amber Meek '17
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.210+0.21
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2012 (14 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears231231231231231231231231
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang33333333
California State University Channel IslandsCalifornia State University Channel Islands Dolphins99999999
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans3737373737373737
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies4747474747474747
University of California at IrvineUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters2626262626262626
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins2727272727272727
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 12929292929292929
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 23030303030303030
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs3333333333333333

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears231231231231231231231231
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang33333333
California State University Channel IslandsCalifornia State University Channel Islands Dolphins99999999
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans3737373737373737
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies4747474747474747
University of California at IrvineUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters2626262626262626
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins2727272727272727
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 12929292929292929
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 23030303030303030
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs3333333333333333
School / Team SkipperCrew
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Joseph Lausten '18 Belle Lemoine '19
Mustang James Kerman '17 [1-8] Rachel Hunter '19 [1-4]
Kevin Zhang '20 [5-8]
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Andrew Clements '17 Kinsey Cohen '17
Dolphins Justin Clements '19 Amber Meek '17
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Andrew Solomon '18 Linda Ge '17
Bears Ian Markowitz '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Cole Fargo '18 [3-4, 7-8]		 Alexandre Mutricy '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Tyler Hogan '17 [3-4, 7-8]
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Jayden Potter '21 [1-8] Jackie Shaff '19 [1-2, 7-8]
Brianna Pinto '20 [3-6]
Aggies Joseph Naro '18 Ivana Morris '17
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Brian Maclean '18 Christian Parizea '18
Anteaters Philip Tagatac '17 Frances Liu '18
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Laura Roudebush '18 [1-8] Natalie Taylor '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Grace Phillips '18 [3-4]
Zoe Hessler '18 [7-8]
Bruins Leah Ford '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Sarah Macpherson '18 [3-4, 7-8]		 Cole Caracappa '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Ryan Messick '20 [3-4, 7-8]
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Samuel Rohrbach '17 Christopher Steefel '18
Tritons 1 Yan Rui Goheen '17 Young Jeong '19
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Jason Barr '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Grant Lin '17 [3-4, 7-8]		 Adriana Guetter '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Robyn Gillum '18 [3-4, 7-8]
Tritons 2 David Luu '17 [1-4]
Hayley Chong '17 [5-8]		 Lauren Liu '17 [1-4]
Courtney Wing '18 [5-8]
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Alexander Brocchini '17 Gabrielle Lange '18
Banana Slugs James Melvin '19 Francine Brownell '19
University of Southern California University of Southern California Peter Wong '18 Natalie Millstein '18
Trojans Paul Chyz '18 Melissa Schem '18

Conditions — 10/08/2016 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 40%  ·  Pressure 1011.4 hPa

Temperature

77°F
↑ 83°F   ↓ 61°F
Feels like 75°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.7 kn
avg  ·  max 9.3 kn
Gusts to 16.9 kn
From WNW (288°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover5% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity40% Pressure1011.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 10 kn · W 9 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at UC San Diego: an underdogs’ day (−0.09)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.01
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.28 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at UC San Diego by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (21 labelled days at UC San Diego).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →