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Midweek Firefly Regatta April 20

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 15 15
2 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 16 16
3 Boston University Boston University Terriers 2 19 19
4 Boston University Boston University Terriers 1 25 25
5 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 25 25
6 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 30 30
7 Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 1 42 42
8 Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 3 50 50
9 Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 2 55 55
10 Emmanuel College Emmanuel College Saints 1 59 59
11 Emmanuel College Emmanuel College Saints 2 60 60
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 1 1 3 1 5 4 15 John Rolander '17
Emily Shanley-Roberts '18
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 2 3 4 2 4 1 16 Alexander Tong '17
Isabelle Sennett '17
Boston University Boston University Terriers 2 3 2 6 5 1 2 19 Reed Lorimer '18
Sarah Ziobro '19
Boston University Boston University Terriers 1 4 7 5 4 2 3 25 Emily Croteau '19
Hannah Davis '19
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 5 4 1 6 3 6 25 Jackson Mccoy '19
Andrew Savage '19
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 7 6 2 3 7 5 30 Pierre Dupont '16
Tyler Paige '18
Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 1 6 5 8 9 6 8 42 Colby Vickerson '17
Regan Yeung '16
Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 3 10 8 7 7 9 9 50 Nicolas Bulgarides '17
Stephen Rondinone '16
Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 2 11 9 9 8 8 10 55 Kristina Schneider '16
Cassandra Layman '17
Emmanuel College Emmanuel College Saints 1 9 10 11 11 11 7 59 Kiley Burke '17 [1-6]
Sofia Drago '19 [1-3]
Marycatherine Dunne '16 [4-6]
Emmanuel College Emmanuel College Saints 2 8 11 10 10 10 11 60 Julia Becker '19
Mae Harrington '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2013 (15 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Bentley UniversityBentley University Falcons 1444444
Bentley UniversityBentley University Falcons 2555555
Bentley UniversityBentley University Falcons 3666666
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers 1202020202020
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers 2242424242424
Emmanuel CollegeEmmanuel College Saints 1111111111111
Emmanuel CollegeEmmanuel College Saints 2151515151515
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 1111111
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 2222222
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 3333333
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 4121212121212

Conditions — 04/20/2016 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 41%  ·  Pressure 1023.7 hPa

Temperature

51°F
↑ 56°F   ↓ 43°F
Feels like 45°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.1 kn
avg  ·  max 10.5 kn
Gusts to 25.1 kn
From NE (42°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover12% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity41% Pressure1023.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at MIT: an underdogs’ day (−0.09)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.07
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.12 ± 0.19)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at MIT by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (112 labelled days at MIT).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →