| # | School | Sailor | TOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
College of Charleston | Stefano Peschiera '18 | 15 |
| 2 |  |
Stanford University | Luke Muller '18 | 22 |
| 3 |  |
U. S. Coast Guard Academy | Avery Fanning '16 | 39 |
| 4 |  |
Yale University | Malcolm Lamphere '18 | 41 |
| 5 |  |
Georgetown University | Nevin Snow '16 | 42 |
| 6 | |
College of Charleston | Reed Baldridge '16 | 44 |
| 7 |  |
U. S. Naval Academy | Addison Hackstaff '18 | 45 |
| 8 | |
Yale University | Joseph Kiss '17 | 45 |
| 9 |  |
George Washington University | Brendan Shanahan '17 | 49 |
| 10 |  |
Washington University | James Harvey '17 | 58 |
| 11 | |
Stanford University | Kieran Chung '15 | 59 |
| 12 | |
College of Charleston | Charles Rees '16 | 62 |
| 13 |  |
Roger Williams University | Martim Anderson '18 | 65 |
| 14 |  |
Texas A&M University at Galveston | Trey Hartman '15 | 77 |
| 15 |  |
University of Wisconsin | Matthew Ripkey '17 | 81 |
| 16 |  |
Fordham University | Will Holz '17 | 86 |
| 17 |  |
Oregon State University | Brian Hickman '15 | 98 |
| 18 | |
University of Wisconsin | Nathan Jamieson '17 | 100 |
Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.
Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.
The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.
| Fin | Skipper | School | Races | Rating before |
Perf. rating |
Δ | Percentile before → perf. |
Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
Avg finish actual / exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stefano Peschiera '18 | College of Charleston Cougars 1 | 6/6 | 3.45 | 5.68 | +2.23 | 89th → 99th | 6.7 | 1% | 2.5 / 7.4 |
| 2 | Luke Muller '18 | Stanford University Cardinal 1 | 6/6 | 2.79 | 4.62 | +1.83 | 75th → 99th | 5.0 | 1% | 3.7 / 9.1 |
| 3 | Avery Fanning '16 | U. S. Coast Guard Academy | 6/6 | 3.21 | 3.37 | +0.16 | 85th → 89th | 0.1 | 34% | 6.5 / 8.0 |
| 4 | Malcolm Lamphere '18 | Yale University Bulldogs 1 | 6/6 | 2.76 | 3.14 | +0.39 | 73rd → 84th | 0.3 | 17% | 6.8 / 9.3 |
| 5 | Nevin Snow '16 | Georgetown University | 6/6 | 3.93 | 3.56 | −0.37 | 95th → 92nd | 0.3 | 68% | 7.0 / 6.2 |
| 6 | Reed Baldridge '16 | College of Charleston Cougars 2 | 6/6 | 3.21 | 2.96 | −0.24 | 85th → 81st | 0.1 | 44% | 7.3 / 8.0 |
| 7 | Addison Hackstaff '18 | U. S. Naval Academy | 6/6 | 2.77 | 3.49 | +0.72 | 74th → 90th | 1.1 | 32% | 7.5 / 9.1 |
| 7 | Joseph Kiss '17 | Yale University Bulldogs 2 | 6/6 | 3.23 | 3.38 | +0.15 | 85th → 89th | 0.0 | 47% | 7.5 / 8.0 |
| 9 | Brendan Shanahan '17 | George Washington University | 6/6 | 2.68 | 3.02 | +0.34 | 71st → 83rd | 0.2 | 33% | 8.2 / 9.4 |
| 10 | James Harvey '17 | Washington University | 6/6 | 1.65 | 2.76 | +1.10 | 41st → 73rd | 2.3 | 22% | 9.7 / 12.0 |
| 11 | Kieran Chung '15 | Stanford University Cardinal 2 | 6/6 | 3.44 | 3.31 | −0.13 | 89th → 87th | 0.0 | 84% | 9.8 / 7.4 |
| 12 | Charles Rees '16 | College of Charleston Cougars 3 | 6/6 | 2.94 | 2.04 | −0.90 | 81st → 53rd | 1.8 | 72% | 10.3 / 8.7 |
| 13 | Martim Anderson '18 | Roger Williams University | 6/6 | 2.51 | 2.49 | −0.02 | 64th → 63rd | 0.0 | 64% | 10.8 / 9.8 |
| 14 | Trey Hartman '15 | Texas A&M University at Galveston | 6/6 | 1.41 | 1.21 | −0.20 | 34th → 29th | 0.1 | 53% | 12.8 / 12.6 |
| 15 | Matthew Ripkey '17 | University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 | 6/6 | 2.29 | 1.92 | −0.37 | 59th → 48th | 0.4 | 84% | 13.5 / 10.4 |
| 16 | Will Holz '17 | Fordham University | 6/6 | 2.39 | 1.38 | −1.02 | 61st → 33rd | 2.0 | 96% | 14.3 / 10.1 |
| 17 | Brian Hickman '15 | Oregon State University | 6/6 | 1.27 | 0.75 | −0.52 | 30th → 18th | 0.6 | 92% | 16.3 / 12.7 |
| 18 | Nathan Jamieson '17 | University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 | 6/6 | 1.25 | 0.42 | −0.83 | 29th → 12th | 1.3 | 94% | 16.7 / 12.8 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
