Northeastern University '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.49 (fleet 2.06) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 5–16 (24%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 5–16 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (21 matches) the record is 5–16 against 2.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.5). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-03-19 | The Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | skipper | 2.02 | 2.93 | 5–16 | 2.5 | +0.91 | 1.8 | 9% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted Coed Showcase | Skipper | B | 10 | 10.9 | 2.67 |
| Norman Reid Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 10.8 | 1.85 |
| Harry H. Anderson Jr. Regatta | Skipper | B | 16 | 15.1 | 0.43 |
| Hewitt Trophy Division 2 | Skipper | A | 16 | 13.6 | 1.49 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Penobscot Bay Regatta | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.4 | 3.50 |
| Nicholas J Barnett Trophy | Skipper | A | 15 | 9.9 | 1.14 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | B | 3 | 18.3 | 0.42 |
| The Chris Loder Trophy | Skipper | A | 2 | 8.5 | 1.91 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Penobscot Bay Open | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.3 | 2.70 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 13.0 | 2.00 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 10.2 | 2.30 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 15 | 14.7 | 1.85 |
| Chris Loder Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 10.8 | 2.19 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Mendums Pond Invite | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.8 | 2.65 |
| The Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 21 | 24% | — |
| Central Series 3 Spring 2016 | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.7 | 2.64 |
| BC Central Series | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.3 | 2.32 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 6.9 | 2.36 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 6.7 | 2.10 |
| FJ Invitational | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.3 | 2.24 |
| Central Series6 | Skipper | A | 3 | 4.7 | 2.87 |
| Central Series 2 | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.0 | 2.10 |
| Spring 2009 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 18 | 10.7 | 1.35 |
| Fall 2008 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 8 | 12.5 | 0.58 |
| BU Invite @ MIT | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.0 | 1.89 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Chris Colbeth |  Duxbury High School |
'15 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
