BU Invite @ MIT

HostBoston University
Date10/19/2008
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Boston University	Terriers!	17	12	29
2	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Angry Beavers	7	32	39
3	Tufts University	Jumbos	53	23	76
4	Northeastern University	Huskies 1	46	30	76
5	Boston University	Terriers 2	52	29	81
6	Boston University	Terriers 1	38	45	83
7	Harvard University	Crimson	25	64	89
8	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	39	50	89
9	Tufts University	Jumbo	34	58	92
10	Tufts University	Jumber	66	38	104
11	University of Vermont	Catamounts	52	63	115
12	Amherst College	Lord Jeffs	67	60	127
13	Wesleyan University	Cardinals	54	93	147
14	Middlebury College	Panthers	75	84	159
15	Northeastern University	Huskies 2	90	79	169
16	University of New Hampshire	Wildcats	95	94	189
17	Bentley University	Falcons	107	93	200

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Angry Beavers	1	1	1	1	2	1	7	Philip Crain '13 Stephanie Tong '12
Boston University	Terriers!	4	2	2	2	1	6	17	Daniel Perkins '11 Meredith Harrington '18
Harvard University	Crimson	3	5	6	4	BKD	3	25	Arthur Bartolozzi '12 Mark Rinaldi '10
Tufts University	Jumbo	5	8	4	9	4	4	34	Reeve Dunne '10 Nereus Patel '10
Boston University	Terriers 1	2	12	5	3	7	9	38	Caroline Wilhelm '11 Elizabeth Santovasi '11
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	7	6	8	8	3	7	39	Jane Koopman '10 Audrey Hatch '10
Northeastern University	Huskies 1	12	9	3	11	6	5	46	Ainsley Price '14 Sara Abad '11
Boston University	Terriers 2	6	15	12	5	12	2	52	Matt Johnson '12 Megan Lotz '12
University of Vermont	Catamounts	9	3	11	6	13	10	52	Alden Winder '12 Courtney Crowley '12
Tufts University	Jumbos	10	7	7	12	9	8	53	John Evans '12 Sara Eisemann '12
Wesleyan University	Cardinals	11	10	9	7	5	12	54	Dylan Griffin '12 Gabriel Elder '11
Tufts University	Jumber	8	13	13	10	8	14	66	Caleb Zimmerman '11 Kaylee Lawcock '11
Amherst College	Lord Jeffs	14	4	10	14	14	11	67	Scott Thompson '11 Jane Derderian '11
Middlebury College	Panthers	13	11	14	13	11	13	75	Chandler Koglmeier '09 William Wright '12
Northeastern University	Huskies 2	15	14	15	15	15	16	90	Alexander Plum '12
University of New Hampshire	Wildcats	16	16	16	16	16	15	95	Gregory Tassinari '11
Bentley University	Falcons	17	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	107	Amy Mullen '??

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Boston University	Terriers!	5	1	1	3	1	1	12	Adrian Law '17 Veronica Kyrk '14
Tufts University	Jumbos	8	2	6	2	2	3	23	Daniel Hurwit '09 Lauren Mazel '11
Boston University	Terriers 2	7	6	4	5	3	4	29	Trevor Burd '12 Luiza Smith '12
Northeastern University	Huskies 1	3	8	3	4	6	6	30	Chris Colbeth '20 Sarah Moffitt '12
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Angry Beavers	1	5	OCS	1	5	2	32	Reguli Granger '12 Leigh Casadaban '10
Tufts University	Jumber	11	4	2	10	4	7	38	Will Pelleteri '12 Ruth Summers '12
Boston University	Terriers 1	6	9	7	6	9	8	45
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	2	7	9	14	13	5	50	Billy Rohman '11 Caitlin Beach '10
Tufts University	Jumbo	4	13	5	7	11	DNF	58	Alexander Jahncke '10 Erica Siepman '10
Amherst College	Lord Jeffs	9	10	12	9	10	10	60	Peter Noogan '11
University of Vermont	Catamounts	12	11	10	12	7	11	63	Cameron Calahan '11 Wyn Maling '12
Harvard University	Crimson	10	12	8	8	8	DNF	64	Alexandra Jumper '12 Florence On '11
Northeastern University	Huskies 2	DNF	DNF	11	11	12	9	79	Alexander Plum '12
Middlebury College	Panthers	DNF	14	13	13	14	12	84	Braden Rosenberg '11 Anna Briggs '12
Wesleyan University	Cardinals	13	15	DNF	DNF	15	14	93
Bentley University	Falcons	DNF	3	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	93	Amy Mullen '??
University of New Hampshire	Wildcats	DNF	DNF	14	15	16	13	94	Julie Sheehan '11

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.110+0.11

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2008 (20 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
Amherst College Lord Jeffs	1	1	3	3	5	5
Bentley University Falcons	15	15	17	17	2	2
Boston University Terriers 1	16	16	1	1	3	3
Boston University Terriers 2	17	17	2	2	4	4
Boston University Terriers!	3	3	5	5	7	7
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	2	2	4	4	6	6
Harvard University Crimson	4	4	6	6	8	8
Middlebury College Panthers	5	5	7	7	9	9
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Angry Beavers	6	6	8	8	10	10
University of New Hampshire Wildcats	12	12	14	14	16	16
Northeastern University Huskies 1	7	7	9	9	11	11
Northeastern University Huskies 2	8	8	10	10	12	12
Tufts University Jumber	10	10	12	12	14	14
Tufts University Jumbo	9	9	11	11	13	13
Tufts University Jumbos	11	11	13	13	15	15
University of Vermont Catamounts	13	13	15	15	17	17
Wesleyan University Cardinals	14	14	16	16	1	1

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B
Amherst College Lord Jeffs	2	2	4	4	6	6
Bentley University Falcons	16	16	1	1	3	3
Boston University Terriers 1	17	17	2	2	4	4
Boston University Terriers 2	1	1	3	3	5	5
Boston University Terriers!	4	4	6	6	8	8
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	3	3	5	5	7	7
Harvard University Crimson	5	5	7	7	9	9
Middlebury College Panthers	6	6	8	8	10	10
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Angry Beavers	7	7	9	9	11	11
University of New Hampshire Wildcats	13	13	15	15	17	17
Northeastern University Huskies 1	8	8	10	10	12	12
Northeastern University Huskies 2	9	9	11	11	13	13
Tufts University Jumber	11	11	13	13	15	15
Tufts University Jumbo	10	10	12	12	14	14
Tufts University Jumbos	12	12	14	14	16	16
University of Vermont Catamounts	14	14	16	16	1	1
Wesleyan University Cardinals	15	15	17	17	2	2

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Amherst College	Scott Thompson '11	Jane Derderian '11
Lord Jeffs	Peter Noogan '11
Bentley University	Amy Mullen '??
Falcons	Amy Mullen '??
Boston University	Caroline Wilhelm '11	Elizabeth Santovasi '11
Terriers 1
Boston University	Matt Johnson '12	Megan Lotz '12
Terriers 2	Trevor Burd '12	Luiza Smith '12
Boston University	Daniel Perkins '11	Meredith Harrington '18
Terriers!	Adrian Law '17	Veronica Kyrk '14
Bowdoin College	Jane Koopman '10	Audrey Hatch '10
Polar Bears	Billy Rohman '11	Caitlin Beach '10
Harvard University	Arthur Bartolozzi '12	Mark Rinaldi '10
Crimson	Alexandra Jumper '12	Florence On '11
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Philip Crain '13	Stephanie Tong '12
Angry Beavers	Reguli Granger '12	Leigh Casadaban '10
Middlebury College	Chandler Koglmeier '09	William Wright '12
Panthers	Braden Rosenberg '11	Anna Briggs '12
Northeastern University	Ainsley Price '14	Sara Abad '11
Huskies 1	Chris Colbeth '20	Sarah Moffitt '12
Northeastern University	Alexander Plum '12
Huskies 2	Alexander Plum '12
Tufts University	Caleb Zimmerman '11	Kaylee Lawcock '11
Jumber	Will Pelleteri '12	Ruth Summers '12
Tufts University	Reeve Dunne '10	Nereus Patel '10
Jumbo	Alexander Jahncke '10	Erica Siepman '10
Tufts University	John Evans '12	Sara Eisemann '12
Jumbos	Daniel Hurwit '09	Lauren Mazel '11
University of New Hampshire	Gregory Tassinari '11
Wildcats	Julie Sheehan '11
University of Vermont	Alden Winder '12	Courtney Crowley '12
Catamounts	Cameron Calahan '11	Wyn Maling '12
Wesleyan University	Dylan Griffin '12	Gabriel Elder '11
Cardinals

Conditions — 10/19/2008 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 59% · Pressure 1028.0 hPa

Temperature

47°F

↑ 49°F ↓ 44°F

Feels like 36°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

13.9 kn

avg · max 16.0 kn

Gusts to 30.1 kn

From NNE (34°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover87% Sunshine8.0 hrs Humidity59% Pressure1028.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 16 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Boston University: a favourites’ day (+0.08)

Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.

Fleet adjustment +0.12 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.20

Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.62 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Boston University by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (56 labelled days at Boston University).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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