| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen | 5–0 |
| 2 |  |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks | 4–1 |
| 3 |  |
George Washington University | Buff and Blue | 3–2 |
| 4 |  |
Old Dominion University | Monarchs | 2–3 |
| 5 |  |
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | Mariners | 1–4 |
| 6 |  |
SUNY Maritime College | Privateers | 0–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 19,057 team race matches sailed before 2023-03-04, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 13 of 15 matches (87%) with a log-loss of 0.229 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.46 ± 0.47: a typical event, more orderly than 91% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | U. S. Naval Academy | 9.47 | 12.47 | 5–0 | 3.9 | ≥+3.00 | 2.0 | 23% |
| 5 | U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | 5.73 | 6.23 | 1–4 | 0.8 | +0.50 | 0.1 | 65% |
| 3 | George Washington University | 8.19 | 8.59 | 3–2 | 2.7 | +0.40 | 0.1 | 59% |
| 2 | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 9.84 | 9.45 | 4–1 | 4.2 | −0.39 | 0.1 | 85% |
| 4 | Old Dominion University | 8.29 | 7.07 | 2–3 | 2.8 | −1.23 | 0.7 | 96% |
| 6 | SUNY Maritime College | 5.47 | 2.47 | 0–5 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 1.0 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Walshe | U. S. Naval Academy | 2.75 | 5.75 | 5–0 | 3.9 | ≥+3.00 | 2.0 | 23% |
| David Pearce | U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | 1.98 | 2.48 | 1–4 | 0.8 | +0.50 | 0.1 | 65% |
| Thomas Green | U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | 2.19 | 2.70 | 1–4 | 0.8 | +0.50 | 0.1 | 65% |
| Owen Hennessey | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 3.45 | 3.84 | 3–2 | 2.7 | +0.40 | 0.1 | 59% |
| Charlie Anderson | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 2.57 | 2.18 | 4–1 | 4.2 | −0.39 | 0.1 | 85% |
| Noyl Odom | Old Dominion University | 2.69 | 1.46 | 2–3 | 2.8 | −1.23 | 0.7 | 96% |
| Andrew Ciszewski | Old Dominion University | 2.42 | 1.20 | 2–3 | 2.8 | −1.23 | 0.7 | 96% |
| Ben Hosford | SUNY Maritime College | 1.49 | -1.51 | 0–5 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 1.0 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Midshipmen | Seahawks | Blue | Monarchs | Mariners | Privateers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 5–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 4–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| George Washington University Buff and Blue | 3–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs | 2–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| SUNY Maritime College Privateers | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Buff and Blue | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Buff and Blue | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Buff and Blue | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 2-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Mariners | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Privateers | 2-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Buff and Blue | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Monarchs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 1-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Privateers | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Buff and Blue | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 1-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Privateers | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Monarchs | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen | Cooper Walshe '25 Gavin Mcjones '23 Nathan Smith '26 |
Madeline Smith '24 Jonah Hatt '23 Ellie Alex '26 Ryan Wahba '25 Colin Macgillivray '23 |
|
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks | Charlie Anderson '25 Leo Boucher '22 Owen Hennessey '25 |
Katherine Shermock '24 Ellie Sekowski '23 Sam Muir '22 Dexter Mueller '24 |
|
George Washington University | Buff and Blue | Oscar Macgillivray '24 Owen Timms '23 Tyler Wood '26 |
Henry Mcpherson '25 Genevieve Mumma '24 Annabelle O'Bryan '24 |
|
Old Dominion University | Monarchs | Andrew Ciszewski '25 Noyl Odom '24 Parker Purrington '24 |
Parker Younger '24 Diogo Silva '26 Asianna Acosta '26 Grace Wright '26 |
|
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | Mariners | Cole Tillson '26 David Pearce '23 Thomas Green '23 |
Andrew Campbell '23 Rey Jacob Alino '25 Caelan Mcmichael '26 |
|
SUNY Maritime College | Privateers | Ben Hosford '25 Brooks Turcotte '26 Spencer Barnes '24 |
Rebecca Runyan '25 Shawn Tirone '25 Isabelle Gautier '26 Eva Leggett '24 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
