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2023 Rose Bowl Regatta - College — Analysis

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* This regatta is not official yet. Ratings marked * are from the last weekly update and have not absorbed this event; the performance columns use the results posted so far, and everything refreshes as scoring is finalised.

Performance rating answers one question for each skipper: holding every other skipper's rating fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? It is the maximum-likelihood rating under the same Plackett–Luce model that produces the power rankings (how accurate it is), with each opponent fixed at their rating from the last rated week before this event (2023-W01). Substitute skippers are scored only on the races they sailed, and races the boat did not finish (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out.

Percentile places a rating among the 2,548 ICSA skippers who were rated within the year before this event, so it reads as “better than X% of the skippers racing in this league right now”. The arrow shows where the sailor stood going in and where this performance would put them.

Surprise is how many bits more surprising the sailor's finishes were at their pre-event rating than at their performance rating (0 = exactly as expected). P(this good or better) simulates the regatta 3,000 times with the sailor at their pre-event rating against the actual fleet, and reports how often they would score this many points or fewer in the races they skippered. Races in one regatta are not independent, so each simulation also gives every skipper a good or bad regatta, form that drifts from race to race, and the speed of each boat the rotation puts them in (why). Low means an unusually good regatta, high means an unusually poor one. It deliberately ignores how rivals actually sailed, so it agrees with the performance rating rather than with the division finish, which also depends on everyone else's day. Ratings are shown on the rankings scale (model rating × 100). Only skippers are rated; crews are not part of the model.

  • — in the performance column means the skipper finished last in every race they sailed, so no finite least-surprisal rating exists.

Division A  18 boats · 6 races

Fin Skipper School Races Rating
before*		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.		 Rating
after*
1 Edward Cook '23 Georgetown University 6/6 394* 700+ +306 96th → 99th 11.5 <1% 1.2 / 5.1 407*
2 Madison Bashaw '24 St. Mary's College of Maryland 6/6 336* 422 +87 90th → 98th 2.0 9% 3.8 / 6.6 352*
3 Jack Roman '26 Roger Williams University 6/6 335* 391 +56 90th → 96th 0.9 20% 4.7 / 6.6 341*
4 Connell Phillipps '23 University of Vermont 6/6 338* 369 +32 90th → 94th 0.3 23% 4.8 / 6.5 339*
5 Marianna Shand '24 University of California at Los Angeles 4/6 256* 361 +105 78th → 93rd 2.0 12% 5.5 / 8.7 264*
5 Grant Janov '25 University of California at Los Angeles 2/6 281* 301 +20 82nd → 85th 0.0 47% 8.0 / 8.7 278*
6 Matthew Monts '24 Eckerd College 6/6 284* 319 +35 82nd → 88th 0.4 30% 6.5 / 8.1 289*
7 Owen Timms '23 George Washington University 6/6 330* 319 -12 89th → 88th 0.0 55% 6.8 / 6.7 336*
8 Adam Larson '24 North Carolina State University 6/6 364* 302 -61 93rd → 85th 1.5 76% 7.0 / 5.8 367*
8 Ted Mcdonough '26 University of California at Santa Barbara 6/6 326* 319 -7 89th → 88th 0.0 56% 7.0 / 6.9 326*
10 Thomas Green '23 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy 6/6 279* 203 -76 82nd → 68th 2.5 89% 11.0 / 8.2 272*
11 Aidan Boylan '24 Arizona State University 6/6 132* 190 +57 53rd → 66th 1.0 30% 11.5 / 12.6 143*
12 Nikhil Stewart '25 University of Hawaii 6/6 188* 194 +6 65th → 66th 0.0 69% 11.8 / 10.9 190*
13 Jack Farrell '23 U. S. Coast Guard Academy 4/6 60* 186 +126 36th → 65th 2.9 27% 12.5 / 14.0 132*
13 Matthew Kickhafer '23 U. S. Coast Guard Academy 2/6 357* 489 +132 92nd → 99th 0.7 93% 11.0 / 6.3 365*
14 Liam Brinton '22 Oregon State University 6/6 123* 113 -10 51st → 48th 0.0 69% 13.8 / 12.7 121*
15 Matthew Beretta '23 Northwestern University 6/6 117* 99 -18 49th → 45th 0.1 87% 15.2 / 12.9 119*
15 Edward Ansart '24 University of Southern California 2/6 161* 136 -25 60th → 54th 0.1 63% 13.5 / 12.1 162*
15 Eleanor Desai '23 University of Southern California 2/6 93* 73 -19 44th → 39th 0.0 66% 15.0 / 13.3 94*
15 Jackson Mckinley '26 University of Southern California 2/6 95* — — 44th → — 4.4 92% 17.0 / 13.1 95*
17 Will Dimaio '26 Santa Clara University 6/6 147* -4 -151 56th → 22nd 7.3 98% 16.0 / 12.1 124*
18 Tessa Greene '26 University of California at Berkeley 6/6 -53* -3 +50 13th → 22nd 0.3 59% 16.8 / 16.2 -12*

Division B  18 boats · 6 races

Fin Skipper School Races Rating
before*		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.		 Rating
after*
1 Piper Holthus '25 Georgetown University 6/6 382* 597 +215 95th → 99th 7.1 1% 1.5 / 5.0 385*
2 George Higham '23 Roger Williams University 6/6 330* 397 +67 89th → 97th 1.3 16% 4.2 / 6.4 333*
3 Jonathan Seawards '26 University of California at Santa Barbara 6/6 351* 447 +97 92nd → 99th 1.9 53% 5.7 / 5.9 360*
4 Emma Snead '23 U. S. Coast Guard Academy 6/6 328* 275 -53 89th → 81st 0.9 51% 6.2 / 6.3 332*
5 Gideon Burnes Heath '23 University of California at Los Angeles 6/6 279* 320 +41 82nd → 88th 0.5 28% 6.3 / 7.8 277*
6 Cole Tillson '26 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy 6/6 270* 282 +12 80th → 82nd 0.0 40% 7.3 / 8.1 272*
7 Davis Winsor '24 University of Southern California 4/6 292* 358 +66 84th → 92nd 0.9 22% 5.2 / 7.5 295*
7 Miles Kirkbride '26 University of Southern California 2/6 85* 68 -17 42nd → 38th 0.0 64% 14.5 / 13.0 85*
8 Jacob Usher '25 North Carolina State University 6/6 256* 234 -22 78th → 74th 0.2 51% 8.5 / 8.5 263*
9 Griffin Richardson '25 Eckerd College 6/6 237* 247 +10 74th → 76th 0.0 48% 8.8 / 9.0 241*
10 Calvin Lamosse '25 University of Vermont 6/6 232* 172 -59 73rd → 62nd 1.1 56% 9.5 / 9.2 240*
11 Delaney Smith '26 Northwestern University 6/6 269* 243 -26 80th → 76th 0.3 74% 9.7 / 8.1 266*
11 Max Kleha '25 St. Mary's College of Maryland 6/6 240* 189 -51 75th → 65th 0.8 62% 9.7 / 9.0 237*
13 Vivian Bonsager '25 University of Hawaii 6/6 271* 239 -32 81st → 75th 0.3 92% 11.2 / 8.0 279*
14 Morgan Vodzak '25 Santa Clara University 6/6 13* 158 +145 26th → 59th 5.3 20% 13.0 / 14.6 49*
15 Tryg Van Wyk '26 George Washington University 6/6 215* 143 -72 71st → 56th 2.1 95% 13.2 / 9.7 214*
16 Quincy Spurlock '24 Oregon State University 6/6 -49* -1 +48 14th → 22nd 0.5 34% 15.5 / 15.9 -41*
17 Viola Phillips Frank '26 University of California at Berkeley 6/6 -7* 13 +20 21st → 26th 0.1 66% 16.0 / 15.1 -9*
18 Sadie Hoberman '25 Arizona State University 6/6 -4* -149 -145 22nd → 1st 3.5 86% 16.8 / 15.0 -2*

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →