MAISA Women's Team Race Championship

HostGeorgetown
Date04/02/2022
TypeConference Championship
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Georgetown University	Hoyas	11–3
2	Cornell University	Big Red	11–3
3	George Washington University	Colonials	9–5
4	University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	8–6
5	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	6–8
6	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	5–9
7	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	3–11
8	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	3–11

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 17,727 team race matches sailed before 2022-04-02, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 36 of 57 matches (63%) with a log-loss of 0.627 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness +0.15 ± 0.42: a typical event, more orderly than 61% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Georgetown University Hoyas	2	7.64 school +0.25, home +0.33	Morgan Sailer / Eva Fortunato 2.14 Piper Holthus / Victoria Boatwright 2.71 Riley Kloc / Morgan Rice 2.09 7–1 Riley Kloc / Addi Harris 2.16 5–2	61%	12–3 (80%)	+2.8
2	Cornell University Big Red	3	7.58 school −0.15	Brooke Shachoy / Amelia Neumann 2.64 Bridget Green / Jana Laurendeau 2.85 Lauren Ehnot / Gabbi Delbello 2.19	59%	11–4 (73%)	+2.1
3	George Washington University Colonials	6	7.09 school +0.10	Chiara Perotti Correa / Kaleigh Morgan 2.42 Emma Aubuchon / Ana Carrasco Solla 2.44 Islay Van Dusen / Ruby Gordon 2.09	47%	9–5 (64%)	+2.4
4	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	1	7.69 school +0.30	Amanda Majernik / Amelia Popp 2.59 Madeleine Rice / Caroline Dannacher 2.06 Sofia Segalla / Ella Marsden 2.70	63%	8–6 (57%)	−0.8
5	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	4	7.44 school +0.30	Katherine Bennett / Emma Gronda 2.58 Lily Flack / Zoe Hoctor 1.88 Madison Bashaw / Anna Flynn 2.62	56%	6–8 (43%)	−1.9
6	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	8	6.22 school +0.44	Aubin Hattendorf / Faith Southwick 1.43 Eva Blauvelt / Madeline Smith Carlyn Blauvelt / Elizabeth Linsdell	25%	5–9 (36%)	+1.5
7	Old Dominion University Monarchs	5	7.18 school +0.31	Bridget Groble / Isabelle Kanach 2.90 Elizabeth Gildea / Katherine Barton 1.97 Megan Geith / Makalynne Dyer 1.96	49%	3–11 (21%)	−3.9
8	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	7	6.73 school +0.15	Ella Withington / Anna Mcbride 2.38 Heather Kerns / Frances Depke 2.38 Brook Wood / Tess Weber 1.76	38%	3–11 (21%)	−2.3

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Georgetown University	7.64	8.62	12–3	9.1	+0.97	1.9	10%
3	George Washington University	7.09	7.83	9–5	6.6	+0.74	1.3	15%
2	Cornell University	7.58	8.25	11–4	8.9	+0.67	1.0	19%
6	U. S. Naval Academy	6.22	6.74	5–9	3.5	+0.52	0.6	26%
4	University of Pennsylvania	7.69	7.43	8–6	8.8	−0.26	0.2	78%
5	St. Mary's College of Maryland	7.44	6.87	6–8	7.9	−0.57	0.8	90%
8	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	6.73	5.88	3–11	5.3	−0.85	1.3	95%
7	Old Dominion University	7.18	5.83	3–11	6.9	−1.35	3.6	99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Chiara Perotti Correa	George Washington University	2.42	3.16	9–5	6.6	+0.74	1.3	15%
Bridget Groble	Old Dominion University	2.90	3.57	11–4	8.9	+0.67	1.0	19%
Aubin Hattendorf	U. S. Naval Academy	1.43	1.95	5–9	3.5	+0.52	0.6	26%
Eva Blauvelt	U. S. Naval Academy	2.13	2.65	5–9	3.5	+0.52	0.6	26%
Amanda Majernik	University of Pennsylvania	2.59	2.33	8–6	8.8	−0.26	0.2	78%
Madeleine Rice	University of Pennsylvania	2.06	1.81	8–6	8.8	−0.26	0.2	78%
Lily Flack	St. Mary's College of Maryland	1.88	1.31	6–8	7.9	−0.57	0.8	90%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	U. S. Naval Academy	67%
1	2	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	60%
1	3	University of Pennsylvania	George Washington University	64%
1	4	Cornell University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	54%
1	5	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	70%
1	6	George Washington University	U. S. Naval Academy	73%
1	7	Old Dominion University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	44%	upset
1	8	Cornell University	University of Pennsylvania	47%	upset
1	9	George Washington University	Georgetown University	38%	upset
1	10	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	St. Mary's College of Maryland	33%	upset
1	11	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Pennsylvania	17%	upset
1	12	Cornell University	Old Dominion University	60%
1	13	George Washington University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	42%	upset
1	14	Georgetown University	University of Pennsylvania	48%	upset
1	15	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Old Dominion University	39%	upset
1	16	U. S. Naval Academy	Cornell University	20%	upset
1	17	University of Pennsylvania	St. Mary's College of Maryland	56%
1	18	George Washington University	Old Dominion University	48%	upset
1	19	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	81%
1	20	Cornell University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	70%
1	21	University of Pennsylvania	Old Dominion University	62%
1	22	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	77%
1	23	George Washington University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	59%
1	24	Georgetown University	Cornell University	52%
1	25	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	28%	upset
1	26	University of Pennsylvania	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	72%
1	27	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	56%
1	28	Cornell University	George Washington University	62%
2	29	U. S. Naval Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	38%	upset
2	30	University of Pennsylvania	Old Dominion University	62%
2	31	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Georgetown University	44%	upset
2	32	George Washington University	Cornell University	38%	upset
2	33	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	29%	upset
2	34	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	67%
2	35	Cornell University	University of Pennsylvania	47%	upset
2	36	Georgetown University	George Washington University	63%
2	37	Old Dominion University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	44%	upset
2	38	Cornell University	U. S. Naval Academy	79%
2	39	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	71%
2	40	University of Pennsylvania	George Washington University	64%
2	41	Cornell University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	53%
2	42	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	61%
2	43	University of Pennsylvania	U. S. Naval Academy	80%
2	44	George Washington University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	59%
2	45	Cornell University	Georgetown University	47%	upset
2	46	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Pennsylvania	44%	upset
2	47	Old Dominion University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	61%
2	48	George Washington University	U. S. Naval Academy	69%
2	49	Georgetown University	University of Pennsylvania	49%	upset
2	50	Cornell University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	70%
2	51	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	76%
2	52	George Washington University	Old Dominion University	48%	upset
2	53	University of Pennsylvania	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	72%
2	54	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	80%
2	55	Cornell University	Old Dominion University	60%
2	56	St. Mary's College of Maryland	George Washington University	59%
2	57	Georgetown University	Cornell University	53%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Hoyas	Red	Colonials	Quakers	Seahawks	Midshipmen	Monarchs	Statesmen
Georgetown University Hoyas	6–1	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	5–2	L	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W
George Washington University Colonials	5–2	W	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	4–3	L	L	W	✕	W	L	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	1–6	L	L	L	L	✕	W	L	L
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3–4	L	W	L	W	L	✕	W	L
Old Dominion University Monarchs	1–6	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	L
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	3–4	L	L	L	L	W	W	W	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Hoyas	Red	Colonials	Quakers	Seahawks	Midshipmen	Monarchs	Statesmen
Georgetown University Hoyas	6–2	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	6–2	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W
George Washington University Colonials	4–3	L	W	✕	L	L	W	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	4–3	L	L	W	✕	L	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	5–2	W	L	W	W	✕	W	L	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	2–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	2–5	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
2	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
3	Quakers	2-3-4	def.	Colonials	1-5-6
4	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
5	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
6	Colonials	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
7	Monarchs	2-3-4	def.	Seahawks	1-5-6
8	Big Red	1-3-4	def.	Quakers	2-5-6
9	Colonials	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
10	Statesmen	1-3-5	def.	Seahawks	2-4-6
11	Midshipmen	1-4-5	def.	Quakers	2-3-6
12	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
13	Colonials	2-3-5	def.	Seahawks	1-4-6
14	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
15	Statesmen	2-3-5	def.	Monarchs	1-4-6
16	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Big Red	3-4-5
17	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
18	Colonials	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
19	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
20	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
21	Quakers	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
22	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
23	Colonials	1-4-5	def.	Statesmen	2-3-6
24	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Big Red	3-4-5
25	Midshipmen	1-3-4	def.	Monarchs	2-5-6
26	Quakers	1-3-6	def.	Statesmen	2-4-5
27	Hoyas	1-3-6	def.	Seahawks	2-4-5
28	Big Red	1-3-5	def.	Colonials	2-4-6
29	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
30	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
31	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
32	Colonials	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
33	Midshipmen	2-3-5	def.	Monarchs	1-4-6
34	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
35	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
36	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Colonials	3-5-6
37	Monarchs	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
38	Big Red	1-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	2-5-6
39	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
40	Quakers	2-3-4	def.	Colonials	1-5-6
41	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
42	Hoyas	1-3-4	def.	Monarchs	2-5-6
43	Quakers	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
44	Colonials	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
45	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas	4-5-6 DNF
46	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
47	Monarchs	1-3-4	def.	Statesmen	2-5-6
48	Colonials	2-3-5	def.	Midshipmen	1-4-6
49	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
50	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
51	Seahawks	1-3-5	def.	Midshipmen	2-4-6
52	Colonials	1-3-4	def.	Monarchs	2-5-6
53	Quakers	2-3-5	def.	Statesmen	1-4-6
54	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
55	Big Red	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
56	Seahawks	1-3-4	def.	Colonials	2-5-6
57	Hoyas	1-3-4	def.	Big Red	2-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Morgan Sailer '22 Piper Holthus '25 Riley Kloc '23	Eva Fortunato '23 Victoria Boatwright '22 Morgan Rice '25 Addi Harris '24
Cornell University	Big Red	Bridget Green '25 Brooke Shachoy '22 Lauren Ehnot '24	Jana Laurendeau '23 Amelia Neumann '25 Gabbi Delbello '23
George Washington University	Colonials	Chiara Perotti Correa '22 Emma Aubuchon '23 Islay Van Dusen '23	Kaleigh Morgan '24 Ana Carrasco Solla '22 Ruby Gordon '23
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	Amanda Majernik '22 Madeleine Rice '24 Sofia Segalla '25	Amelia Popp '25 Caroline Dannacher '25 Ella Marsden '24
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Katherine Bennett '22 Lily Flack '25 Madison Bashaw '24	Emma Gronda '22 Zoe Hoctor '25 Anna Flynn '25
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Aubin Hattendorf '24 Carlyn Blauvelt '23 Eva Blauvelt '25	Faith Southwick '23 Elizabeth Linsdell '23 Madeline Smith '24
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Bridget Groble '22 Elizabeth Gildea '24 Megan Geith '24	Isabelle Kanach '25 Katherine Barton '23 Makalynne Dyer '22
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	Brook Wood '25 Ella Withington '22 Heather Kerns '24	Tess Weber '23 Anna Mcbride '24 Frances Depke '25

Conditions — 04/02/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 47% · Pressure 1019.6 hPa

Temperature

49°F

↑ 54°F ↓ 38°F

Feels like 44°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.2 kn

avg · max 6.9 kn

Gusts to 15.0 kn

From W (276°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover16% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity47% Pressure1019.6 hPa

What this breeze does at Georgetown — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Georgetown in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.02)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Georgetown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (27 labelled fleet-race days at Georgetown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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