MAISA Women’s Team Race Conference Championship

HostCornell
Date04/15/2023
TypeConference Championship
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Cornell University	Big Red	16–2
2	University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	15–3
3	Georgetown University	Hoyas	9–9
4	U. S. Naval Academy	Women	8–10
5	George Washington University	Buff and Blue	6–12
6	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	5–13
7	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Herons	4–14

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 21,260 team race matches sailed before 2023-04-15, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 50 of 63 matches (79%) with a log-loss of 0.473 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.02 ± 0.24: a typical event, more orderly than 44% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Cornell University Big Red	1	8.81 school −0.16, home +0.44	Bridget Green / Gabbi Delbello 3.33 Meredith Moran / Sophia Pearce 2.66 Sophia Devling / Amelia Neumann 2.50	83%	16–2 (89%)	+1.1
2	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	2	8.70 school +0.36	Torrey Chisari / Kiki Bruzzi 2.84 Madeleine Rice / Anna Hoffman 2.63 Sofia Segalla / Hannah Bast 2.83	81%	15–3 (83%)	+0.4
3	Georgetown University Hoyas	3	7.74 school +0.28	Kelly Bates / Audrey Fung 2.27 6–6 Piper Holthus / Kathryn Winters 2.79 6–6 Riley Kloc / Addi Harris 2.36 6–6 Kelly Bates / Louisa Buckingham 2.24 3–3 Piper Holthus / Eva Fortunato 2.84 3–3 Riley Kloc / Morgan Rice 2.27 3–3	64%	9–9 (50%)	−2.5
4	U. S. Naval Academy Women	4	6.69 school +0.31	Eva Blauvelt / Julia Christie 2.67 Aubin Hattendorf / Catherine Aitken 1.69 3–6 Ava Farley / Linnea Forsberg 2.01 3–6 Aubin Hattendorf / Maggie Schuler 1.71 5–4 Ava Farley / Catherine Aitken 1.94 5–4	41%	8–10 (44%)	+0.6
5	George Washington University Buff and Blue	7	5.82 school +0.05	Islay Van Dusen / Ruby Gordon 2.12 Avery Canavan / Kaleigh Morgan 1.87 Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia / Alexandra Lee 1.70	23%	6–12 (33%)	+1.9
6	Old Dominion University Monarchs	6	6.04 school +0.20	Megan Geith / Cadence Goodnight Allison Volk / Katherine Barton 1.53 Elizabeth Gildea / Isabelle Kanach 2.38	27%	5–13 (28%)	+0.1
7	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Herons	5	6.21 school +0.14	Brook Wood / Ksenia Lowry-Neufeld 1.89 Elizabeth Starck / Valyn Mogensen 1.83 Heather Kerns / Frances Depke 2.29	31%	4–14 (22%)	−1.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
5	George Washington University	5.82	6.45	6–12	4.1	+0.63	0.9	20%
1	Cornell University	8.81	9.39	16–2	14.9	+0.58	0.4	37%
4	U. S. Naval Academy	6.69	6.88	8–10	7.4	+0.19	0.1	47%
2	University of Pennsylvania	8.70	8.87	15–3	14.6	+0.17	0.0	56%
6	Old Dominion University	6.04	6.07	5–13	4.9	+0.02	0.0	59%
7	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	6.21	5.67	4–14	5.6	−0.55	0.6	88%
3	Georgetown University	7.74	6.95	9–9	11.5	−0.79	1.4	96%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Avery Canavan	George Washington University	1.87	2.50	6–12	4.1	+0.63	0.9	20%
Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia	George Washington University	1.70	2.33	6–12	4.1	+0.63	0.9	20%
Aubin Hattendorf	U. S. Naval Academy	1.69	1.88	8–10	7.4	+0.19	0.1	47%
Ava Farley	U. S. Naval Academy	2.01	2.20	8–10	7.4	+0.19	0.1	47%
Eva Blauvelt	U. S. Naval Academy	2.67	2.87	8–10	7.4	+0.19	0.1	47%
Torrey Chisari	University of Pennsylvania	2.84	3.01	15–3	14.6	+0.17	0.0	56%
Madeleine Rice	University of Pennsylvania	2.63	2.80	15–3	14.6	+0.17	0.0	56%
Megan Geith	Old Dominion University	1.85	1.87	5–13	4.9	+0.02	0.0	59%
Allison Volk	Old Dominion University	1.53	1.55	5–13	4.9	+0.02	0.0	59%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	85%
1	2	University of Pennsylvania	U. S. Naval Academy	88%
1	3	Cornell University	George Washington University	95%
1	4	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	82%
1	5	University of Pennsylvania	Old Dominion University	94%
1	6	Cornell University	U. S. Naval Academy	89%
1	7	George Washington University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	40%	upset
1	8	University of Pennsylvania	Georgetown University	72%
1	9	Cornell University	Old Dominion University	94%
1	10	U. S. Naval Academy	George Washington University	72%
1	11	University of Pennsylvania	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	92%
1	12	Cornell University	Georgetown University	74%
1	13	Old Dominion University	George Washington University	56%
1	14	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	U. S. Naval Academy	39%	upset
1	15	University of Pennsylvania	Cornell University	47%	upset
1	16	George Washington University	Georgetown University	13%	upset
1	17	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	65%
1	18	Cornell University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	93%
1	19	George Washington University	University of Pennsylvania	5%	upset
1	20	U. S. Naval Academy	Georgetown University	27%	upset
1	21	Old Dominion University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	46%	upset
2	22	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	85%
2	23	University of Pennsylvania	U. S. Naval Academy	88%
2	24	Cornell University	George Washington University	95%
2	25	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	83%
2	26	University of Pennsylvania	Old Dominion University	93%
2	27	Cornell University	U. S. Naval Academy	89%
2	28	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	George Washington University	60%
2	29	University of Pennsylvania	Georgetown University	72%
2	30	Cornell University	Old Dominion University	94%
2	31	U. S. Naval Academy	George Washington University	71%
2	32	University of Pennsylvania	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	92%
2	33	Cornell University	Georgetown University	74%
2	34	Old Dominion University	George Washington University	56%
2	35	U. S. Naval Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	61%
2	36	Cornell University	University of Pennsylvania	53%
2	37	Georgetown University	George Washington University	87%
2	38	Old Dominion University	U. S. Naval Academy	35%	upset
2	39	Cornell University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	93%
2	40	University of Pennsylvania	George Washington University	95%
2	41	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	74%
2	42	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Old Dominion University	54%
3	43	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	85%
3	44	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Pennsylvania	12%	upset
3	45	Cornell University	George Washington University	95%
3	46	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	83%
3	47	University of Pennsylvania	Old Dominion University	93%
3	48	Cornell University	U. S. Naval Academy	89%
3	49	George Washington University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	40%	upset
3	50	University of Pennsylvania	Georgetown University	72%
3	51	Cornell University	Old Dominion University	94%
3	52	George Washington University	U. S. Naval Academy	30%	upset
3	53	University of Pennsylvania	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	92%
3	54	Cornell University	Georgetown University	74%
3	55	Old Dominion University	George Washington University	56%
3	56	U. S. Naval Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	61%
3	57	University of Pennsylvania	Cornell University	47%	upset
3	58	George Washington University	Georgetown University	13%	upset
3	59	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	64%
3	60	Cornell University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	93%
3	61	University of Pennsylvania	George Washington University	95%
3	62	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	74%
3	63	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Old Dominion University	54%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Red	Quakers	Hoyas	Women	Blue	Monarchs	Herons
Cornell University Big Red	5–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	5–1	W	✕	W	W	L	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	2–4	L	L	✕	L	L	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Women	3–3	L	L	W	✕	W	W	L
George Washington University Buff and Blue	3–3	L	W	W	L	✕	L	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	2–4	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Herons	1–5	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Red	Quakers	Hoyas	Women	Blue	Monarchs	Herons
Cornell University Big Red	6–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	5–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	4–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Women	2–4	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W
George Washington University Buff and Blue	0–6	L	L	L	L	✕	L	L
Old Dominion University Monarchs	2–4	L	L	L	W	W	✕	L
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Herons	2–4	L	L	L	L	W	W	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Red	Quakers	Hoyas	Women	Blue	Monarchs	Herons
Cornell University Big Red	5–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	5–1	W	✕	W	L	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	3–3	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Women	3–3	L	W	L	✕	L	W	W
George Washington University Buff and Blue	3–3	L	L	W	W	✕	L	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	1–5	L	L	L	L	W	✕	L
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Herons	1–5	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
2	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Women	4-5-6
3	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Buff and Blue	3-4-6
4	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Herons	4-5-6
5	Quakers	1-3-4	def.	Monarchs	2-5-6
6	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Women	4-5-6
7	Buff and Blue	1-2-6	def.	Herons	3-4-5
8	Quakers	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
9	Big Red	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
10	Women	1-2-5	def.	Buff and Blue	3-4-6
11	Quakers	1-2-6	def.	Herons	3-4-5
12	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
13	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Buff and Blue	3-5-6
14	Herons	1-3-5	def.	Women	2-4-6
15	Quakers	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
16	Buff and Blue	2-3-5	def.	Hoyas	1-4-6
17	Women	2-3-5	def.	Monarchs	1-4-6
18	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Herons	3-4-6
19	Buff and Blue	1-4-5	def.	Quakers	2-3-6
20	Women	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
21	Monarchs	1-3-6	def.	Herons	2-4-5
22	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
23	Quakers	1-2-4	def.	Women	3-5-6
24	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Buff and Blue	3-4-6
25	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Herons	3-5-6
26	Quakers	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
27	Big Red	2-3-4	def.	Women	1-5-6
28	Herons	1-2-4	def.	Buff and Blue	3-5-6
29	Quakers	1-4-5	def.	Hoyas	2-3-6
30	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
31	Women	1-3-5	def.	Buff and Blue	2-4-6
32	Quakers	1-2-4	def.	Herons	3-5-6
33	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
34	Monarchs	2-3-5	def.	Buff and Blue	1-4-6
35	Women	1-2-5	def.	Herons	3-4-6
36	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
37	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Buff and Blue	1-5-6
38	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Women	3-4-6
39	Big Red	2-3-4	def.	Herons	1-5-6
40	Quakers	1-2-4	def.	Buff and Blue	3-5-6
41	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Women	3-4-6
42	Herons	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
43	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
44	Women	1-3-4	def.	Quakers	2-5-6
45	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Buff and Blue	4-5-6
46	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Herons	1-5-6
47	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
48	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Women	3-4-6
49	Buff and Blue	1-3-4	def.	Herons	2-5-6
50	Quakers	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
51	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
52	Buff and Blue	1-3-5	def.	Women	2-4-6
53	Quakers	1-2-4	def.	Herons	3-5-6
54	Big Red	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
55	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Buff and Blue	3-4-6
56	Women	1-2-5	def.	Herons	3-4-6
57	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
58	Buff and Blue	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
59	Women	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
60	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Herons	3-4-5
61	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Buff and Blue	4-5-6
62	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Women	4-5-6
63	Herons	1-3-4	def.	Monarchs	2-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Cornell University	Big Red	Bridget Green '25 Meredith Moran '23 Sophia Devling '26	Gabbi Delbello '23 Sophia Pearce '26 Amelia Neumann '25
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	Madeleine Rice '24 Sofia Segalla '25 Torrey Chisari '24	Anna Hoffman '26 Hannah Bast '25 Kiki Bruzzi '25
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Kelly Bates '26 Piper Holthus '25 Riley Kloc '23	Audrey Fung '24 Louisa Buckingham '23 Kathryn Winters '23 Eva Fortunato '23 Addi Harris '24 Morgan Rice '25
U. S. Naval Academy	Women	Aubin Hattendorf '24 Ava Farley '26 Eva Blauvelt '25	Maggie Schuler '25 Catherine Aitken '24 Linnea Forsberg '25 Julia Christie '24
George Washington University	Buff and Blue	Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia '26 Avery Canavan '25 Islay Van Dusen '23	Alexandra Lee '25 Kaleigh Morgan '24 Ruby Gordon '23
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Allison Volk '25 Elizabeth Gildea '24 Megan Geith '23	Katherine Barton '23 Isabelle Kanach '25 Cadence Goodnight '26
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Herons	Brook Wood '25 Elizabeth Starck '25 Heather Kerns '24	Ksenia Lowry-Neufeld '25 Valyn Mogensen '26 Frances Depke '25

Conditions — 04/15/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 52% · Pressure 1009.4 hPa

Temperature

73°F

↑ 79°F ↓ 60°F

Feels like 73°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.2 kn

avg · max 6.8 kn

Gusts to 17.7 kn

From SSE (159°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover73% Sunshine9.4 hrs Humidity52% Pressure1009.4 hPa Rain0.02 in

What this breeze does at Cornell — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Cornell in this breeze: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.11)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 10% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Cornell by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled fleet-race days at Cornell).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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