| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Georgetown University | Hoyas | 7–1 |
| 2 |  |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks | 4–4 |
| 3 |  |
Cornell University | Big Red | 4–4 |
| 4 |  |
Old Dominion University | Monarchs | 4–4 |
| 5 |  |
George Washington University | Revolutionaries | 1–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 22,017 team race matches sailed before 2024-03-02, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 16 of 20 matches (80%) with a log-loss of 0.503 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.12 ± 0.41: a typical event, more orderly than 31% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Georgetown University Hoyas | 1 | 10.85 school +0.20, home +0.43 | Mariner Fagan / Emily Panarella 3.65 Mateo Di Blasi / Addi Harris 3.33 Diego Escobar / Caro Gaston 3.23 | 90% | 7–1 (88%) | −0.2 |
| 2 | St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 2 | 9.37 school +0.21 | Charlie Anderson / Katherine Shermock 2.72 Madison Bashaw / Rachel O'Neill 2.90 Owen Hennessey / Zoe Hoctor 3.53 | 61% | 4–4 (50%) | −0.9 |
| 3 | Cornell University Big Red | 3 | 8.64 school −0.13 | Bridget Green / Sophia Mulvania 3.37 Winborne Majette / Amelia Neumann Sophia Devling / Sophia Pearce 2.77 | 44% | 4–4 (50%) | +0.5 |
| 4 | Old Dominion University Monarchs | 4 | 8.47 school +0.26 | Parker Purrington / Asianna Acosta 2.74 Diogo Silva / Ethan Tutt Noyl Odom / Parker Younger 2.77 | 40% | 4–4 (50%) | +0.8 |
| 5 | George Washington University Revolutionaries | 5 | 7.26 school +0.08 | Tyler Wood / Annabelle O'Bryan 2.93 Avery Canavan / Alexandra Lee 2.13 Tryg Van Wyk / Genevieve Mumma | 14% | 1–7 (12%) | −0.1 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Old Dominion University | 8.47 | 9.01 | 4–4 | 3.2 | +0.54 | 0.3 | 40% |
| 3 | Cornell University | 8.64 | 8.96 | 4–4 | 3.5 | +0.32 | 0.1 | 51% |
| 5 | George Washington University | 7.26 | 7.11 | 1–7 | 1.1 | −0.15 | 0.0 | 72% |
| 1 | Georgetown University | 10.85 | 10.58 | 7–1 | 7.2 | −0.27 | 0.0 | 82% |
| 2 | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 9.37 | 8.73 | 4–4 | 4.9 | −0.64 | 0.4 | 89% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diogo Silva | Old Dominion University | 2.67 | 3.21 | 4–4 | 3.2 | +0.54 | 0.3 | 40% |
| Noyl Odom | Old Dominion University | 2.77 | 3.31 | 4–4 | 3.2 | +0.54 | 0.3 | 40% |
| Winborne Majette | Cornell University | 2.54 | 2.86 | 4–4 | 3.5 | +0.32 | 0.1 | 51% |
| Avery Canavan | George Washington University | 2.13 | 1.97 | 1–7 | 1.1 | −0.15 | 0.0 | 72% |
| Charlie Anderson | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 2.72 | 2.08 | 4–4 | 4.9 | −0.64 | 0.4 | 89% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Hoyas | Seahawks | Red | Monarchs | Revolutionaries | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 3–1 | ✕ | W | W | L | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 3–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Cornell University Big Red | 1–3 | L | L | ✕ | L | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs | 3–1 | W | L | W | ✕ | W |
| George Washington University Revolutionaries | 0–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Hoyas | Seahawks | Red | Monarchs | Revolutionaries | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 4–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 1–3 | L | ✕ | L | W | L |
| Cornell University Big Red | 3–1 | L | W | ✕ | W | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs | 1–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| George Washington University Revolutionaries | 1–3 | L | W | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Revolutionaries | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Monarchs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Big Red | 1-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Big Red | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Revolutionaries | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Seahawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Monarchs | 1-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Revolutionaries | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Seahawks | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Big Red | 2-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Monarchs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Hoyas | 1-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Revolutionaries | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Revolutionaries | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Big Red | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Big Red | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Revolutionaries | 2-3-6 |
| 15 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Monarchs | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Hoyas | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Big Red | 1-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Monarchs | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Revolutionaries | 2-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Big Red | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Revolutionaries | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Georgetown University | Hoyas | Diego Escobar '25 Mariner Fagan '24 Mateo Di Blasi '25 |
Caro Gaston '25 Emily Panarella '24 Addi Harris '24 |
|
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks | Charlie Anderson '25 Madison Bashaw '24 Owen Hennessey '25 |
Katherine Shermock '24 Rachel O'Neill '24 Zoe Hoctor '25 |
|
Cornell University | Big Red | Bridget Green '25 Sophia Devling '26 Winborne Majette '27 |
Sophia Mulvania '26 Sophia Pearce '26 Amelia Neumann '25 |
|
Old Dominion University | Monarchs | Diogo Silva '26 Noyl Odom '24 Parker Purrington '24 |
Ethan Tutt '24 Parker Younger '24 Asianna Acosta '26 |
|
George Washington University | Revolutionaries | Avery Canavan '25 Tryg Van Wyk '26 Tyler Wood '26 |
Alexandra Lee '25 Genevieve Mumma '24 Annabelle O'Bryan '24 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
