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Faye Bennet MAISA Women's Singlehanded

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT
Cornell University Cornell University Lucija Ruzevic '24 1 1 3 1 10 5 13 2 3 1 4 1 2 2 49
Georgetown University Georgetown University Piper Holthus '25 5 4 9 5 4 1 3 6 1 2 1 4 1 5 51
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Gianna Dewey '27 6 8 BKD 2 1 10 8 1 7 5 3 11 5 3 75
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Madison Bashaw '24 4 3 4 3 8 4 1 7 11 12 8 3 3 12 83
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Kate Zurinskas '27 2 6 8 8 2 6 4 8 6 3 11 8 16 1 89
Cornell University Cornell University Lauren Ehnot '24 3 14 11 7 5 7 2 4 8 15 9 2 8 13 108
Cornell University Cornell University Pilar Cundey '27 8 7 18 4 9 2 12 18 5 11 2 6 6 8 116
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Heather Kerns '24 13 2 6 17 3 14 9 3 4 16 6 12 17 4 126
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Elizabeth Starck '25 10 12 1 11 14 12 6 13 10 8 7 7 7 9 127
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Emma Friedauer '26 14 13 10 9 12 11 5 5 2 10 10 10 10 10 131
Georgetown University Georgetown University Alexa Shea '26 11 16 5 14 6 8 7 9 9 6 12 5 15 14 137
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Katherine Shermock '24 9 17 2 10 17 13 10 14 17 7 17 9 9 6 157
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Isabella Fadullon '25 12 11 13 6 7 3 11 16 13 4 DNS DNS DNS DNS 172
Georgetown University Georgetown University Isabel Massey '27 7 18 14 13 16 9 14 10 18 9 16 16 4 16 180
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Olivia Gilmore '27 16 9 17 16 15 17 15 11 16 14 5 17 12 11 191
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Grace Watlington '26 18 10 7 15 18 16 18 15 14 17 15 13 11 7 194
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Lily Flack '25 17 5 15 18 13 15 16 12 12 18 14 15 13 17 200
Georgetown University Georgetown University Harper Cartwright '24 15 15 12 12 11 18 17 17 15 13 13 14 14 15 201

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  18 boats · 14 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Lucija Ruzevic '24Cornell University Big Red 114/143.063.68+0.6283rd → 93rd1.66%3.5 / 6.1
2Piper Holthus '25Georgetown University Hoyas 114/142.853.82+0.9778th → 94th3.94%3.6 / 6.5
3Madison Bashaw '24St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 314/142.402.83+0.4361st → 77th0.925%5.9 / 7.8
4Gianna Dewey '27Old Dominion University Monarchs 214/142.143.03+0.8956th → 83rd3.318%6.4 / 8.3
4Kate Zurinskas '27U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 214/141.372.62+1.2533rd → 69th6.52%6.4 / 10.4
6Lauren Ehnot '24Cornell University Big Red 214/142.672.18−0.4971st → 57th1.567%7.7 / 7.0
7Pilar Cundey '27Cornell University Big Red 314/141.991.69−0.3051st → 42nd0.444%8.3 / 8.8
8Heather Kerns '24Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 114/142.141.48−0.6656th → 37th2.464%9.0 / 8.3
9Elizabeth Starck '25Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 214/141.592.02+0.4339th → 53rd0.939%9.1 / 9.8
10Emma Friedauer '26Old Dominion University Monarchs 114/141.811.97+0.1644th → 51st0.152%9.4 / 9.3
11Alexa Shea '26Georgetown University Hoyas 214/141.691.72+0.0342nd → 43rd0.054%9.8 / 9.7
12Katherine Shermock '24St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 114/140.871.06+0.1921st → 25th0.241%11.2 / 11.7
13Isabella Fadullon '25U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 114/140.941.83+0.8921st → 45th2.660%12.3 / 11.5
14Isabel Massey '27Georgetown University Hoyas 414/140.990.58−0.4122nd → 15th0.972%12.9 / 11.4
15Olivia Gilmore '27Old Dominion University Monarchs 314/140.980.74−0.2422nd → 17th0.380%13.6 / 11.4
16Grace Watlington '26Christopher Newport University14/141.190.38−0.8128th → 12th3.488%13.9 / 10.8
17Lily Flack '25St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 214/141.080.38−0.7025th → 12th2.590%14.3 / 11.2
18Harper Cartwright '24Georgetown University Hoyas 314/141.10u0.68−0.4225th → 17th1.091%14.4 / 11.0

Conditions — 09/16/2023 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 53%  ·  Pressure 1015.8 hPa

Temperature

72°F
↑ 78°F   ↓ 58°F
Feels like 71°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.2 kn
avg  ·  max 5.6 kn
Gusts to 14.8 kn
From WNW (297°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity53% Pressure1015.8 hPa

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →