| # | School | Sailor | TOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Cornell University | Lucija Ruzevic '24 | 34 |
| 2 | |
Cornell University | Lauren Ehnot '24 | 55 |
| 3 |  |
Georgetown University | Piper Holthus '25 | 66 |
| 4 |  |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Madison Bashaw '24 | 67 |
| 5 | |
Georgetown University | Alexa Shea '26 | 87 |
| 6 |  |
Old Dominion University | Emma Friedauer '26 | 88 |
| 7 |  |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Heather Kerns '24 | 95 |
| 8 | |
Old Dominion University | Elizabeth Gildea '24 | 115 |
| 9 | |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Elizabeth Starck '25 | 117 |
| 10 |  |
U. S. Naval Academy | Aubin Hattendorf '24 | 129 |
| 11 | |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Lily Flack '25 | 147 |
| 12 | |
U. S. Naval Academy | Isabella Fadullon '25 | 154 |
| 13 |  |
Christopher Newport University | Grace Watlington '26 | 171 |
| 14 | |
Old Dominion University | Allison Volk '25 | 183 |
| 15 | |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Katherine Shermock '24 | 191 |
| 16 | |
Cornell University | Maya Conway '26 | 210 |
| 17 | |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Anna Flynn '25 | 218 |
| School | Sailor | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | R7 | R8 | R9 | R10 | R11 | R12 | R13 | R14 | TOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Cornell University | Lucija Ruzevic '24 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | BKD | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 34 |
|
Cornell University | Lauren Ehnot '24 | 7 | 2 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 55 |
|
Georgetown University | Piper Holthus '25 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 66 |
|
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Madison Bashaw '24 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 67 |
|
Georgetown University | Alexa Shea '26 | 13 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 87 |
|
Old Dominion University | Emma Friedauer '26 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 88 |
|
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Heather Kerns '24 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 95 |
|
Old Dominion University | Elizabeth Gildea '24 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 13 | 115 |
|
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Elizabeth Starck '25 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 117 |
|
U. S. Naval Academy | Aubin Hattendorf '24 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 15 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 129 |
|
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Lily Flack '25 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 147 |
|
U. S. Naval Academy | Isabella Fadullon '25 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 12 | 9 | 16 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 17 | 11 | 8 | 154 |
|
Christopher Newport University | Grace Watlington '26 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 17 | 16 | 10 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 11 | 171 |
|
Old Dominion University | Allison Volk '25 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 12 | 12 | 17 | 14 | 183 |
|
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Katherine Shermock '24 | 9 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 9 | 17 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 16 | 16 | 191 |
|
Cornell University | Maya Conway '26 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 13 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 210 |
|
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Anna Flynn '25 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 218 |
Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.
Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.
The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.
| Fin | Skipper | School | Races | Rating before |
Perf. rating |
Δ | Percentile before → perf. |
Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
Avg finish actual / exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lucija Ruzevic '24 | Cornell University Big Red 2 | 14/14 | 3.12 | 4.20 | +1.08 | 84th → 97th | 3.7 | 14% | 3.6 / 5.2 |
| 2 | Lauren Ehnot '24 | Cornell University Big Red 1 | 14/14 | 2.11 | 3.33 | +1.22 | 55th → 88th | 5.8 | 2% | 3.9 / 7.5 |
| 3 | Piper Holthus '25 | Georgetown University Hoyas 1 | 14/14 | 2.68 | 3.05 | +0.36 | 71st → 83rd | 0.6 | 23% | 4.7 / 6.1 |
| 4 | Madison Bashaw '24 | St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 4 | 14/14 | 2.12 | 2.57 | +0.45 | 56th → 67th | 0.8 | 11% | 4.8 / 7.5 |
| 5 | Alexa Shea '26 | Georgetown University Hoyas 2 | 14/14 | 1.73 | 2.40 | +0.67 | 43rd → 61st | 2.1 | 14% | 6.2 / 8.4 |
| 6 | Emma Friedauer '26 | Old Dominion University Monarchs 2 | 14/14 | 1.71 | 2.35 | +0.64 | 43rd → 60th | 1.9 | 19% | 6.3 / 8.5 |
| 7 | Heather Kerns '24 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1 | 14/14 | 2.26 | 2.27 | +0.01 | 59th → 59th | 0.0 | 45% | 6.8 / 7.1 |
| 8 | Elizabeth Gildea '24 | Old Dominion University Monarchs 1 | 14/14 | 1.85 | 1.79 | −0.06 | 46th → 44th | 0.0 | 53% | 8.2 / 8.1 |
| 9 | Elizabeth Starck '25 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2 | 14/14 | 1.40 | 1.85 | +0.44 | 34th → 46th | 1.0 | 37% | 8.4 / 9.2 |
| 10 | Aubin Hattendorf '24 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 | 14/14 | 1.68 | 1.51 | −0.17 | 42nd → 38th | 0.2 | 61% | 9.2 / 8.6 |
| 11 | Lily Flack '25 | St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 3 | 14/14 | 1.15 | 0.99 | −0.17 | 25th → 22nd | 0.1 | 60% | 10.5 / 9.9 |
| 12 | Isabella Fadullon '25 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 | 14/14 | 0.93 | 0.79 | −0.15 | 21st → 18th | 0.1 | 60% | 11.0 / 10.4 |
| 13 | Grace Watlington '26 | Christopher Newport University | 14/14 | 0.43 | 0.57 | +0.14 | 12th → 15th | 0.1 | 60% | 12.2 / 11.6 |
| 14 | Allison Volk '25 | Old Dominion University Monarchs 3 | 14/14 | 0.76 | 0.30 | −0.47 | 18th → 11th | 1.2 | 83% | 13.1 / 10.9 |
| 15 | Katherine Shermock '24 | St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 | 14/14 | 0.87 | 0.18 | −0.69 | 21st → 9th | 2.8 | 91% | 13.6 / 10.6 |
| 16 | Maya Conway '26 | Cornell University Big Red 3 | 14/14 | 0.74 | -0.18 | −0.91 | 17th → 4th | 5.1 | 97% | 15.0 / 10.9 |
| 17 | Anna Flynn '25 | St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 | 14/14 | 0.04 | -0.79 | −0.84 | 6th → 1st | 2.8 | 96% | 15.6 / 12.5 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
