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Women's Open Singlehanded National Championship

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Charlotte Rose '22 2 3 6 1 2 4 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 29
Stanford University Stanford University Christina Sakellaris '21 1 1 1 4 10 1 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 32
Georgetown University Georgetown University Carly Broussard '21 8 4 2 3 4 9 7 4 4 10 3 7 3 3 71
Stanford University Stanford University Grace Austin '24 3 6 5 8 3 2 10 10 5 4 5 4 4 5 74
College of Charleston College of Charleston Kelly-Ann Arrindell '20 4 2 3 6 1 3 RAF 8 10 5 9 5 9 9 89
Boston College Boston College Elizabeth Shanahan '23 5 12 13 7 8 10 5 3 3 3 6 3 6 6 90
Tufts University Tufts University Annika Fedde '23 6 7 11 11 7 11 2 6 6 7 4 6 5 8 97
Tufts University Tufts University Alexandra Talbot '22 7 13 10 5 6 8 6 5 7 9 7 10 7 4 104
University of South Florida University of South Florida Marina Barzaghi '21 9 10 7 10 9 13 8 11 8 8 8 9 10 7 127
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Maartje Van Dam '23 11 5 9 9 13 5 12 9 11 6 10 8 11 DNF 134
Connecticut College Connecticut College Aili Moffet '23 12 14 8 14 12 6 4 7 9 11 11 11 8 11 138
Tufts University Tufts University Abbie Carlson '22 14 8 4 2 5 12 13 13 12 13 13 12 13 10 144
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Bridget Groble '21 10 11 12 12 11 14 9 12 13 12 12 DNF 12 12 167
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Elizabeth Gildea '24 13 9 14 13 14 7 11 14 14 14 14 13 14 13 177

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  14 boats · 14 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Charlotte Rose '22Jacksonville University Fins 114/143.885.29+1.4094th → 99th6.11%2.1 / 4.4
2Christina Sakellaris '21Stanford University Cardinal 214/143.354.92+1.5789th → 99th7.7<1%2.3 / 5.5
3Carly Broussard '21Georgetown University14/142.843.28+0.4477th → 86th0.919%5.1 / 6.5
4Grace Austin '24Stanford University Cardinal 114/142.463.23+0.7762nd → 85th2.611%5.3 / 7.3
5Kelly-Ann Arrindell '20College of Charleston14/143.042.94−0.1083rd → 81st0.060%6.4 / 6.1
6Elizabeth Shanahan '23Boston College14/142.282.68+0.4059th → 71st0.723%6.4 / 7.7
7Annika Fedde '23Tufts University Jumbos 214/142.062.68+0.6253rd → 71st1.824%6.9 / 8.1
8Alexandra Talbot '22Tufts University Jumbos 314/142.322.49+0.1660th → 62nd0.147%7.4 / 7.6
9Marina Barzaghi '21University of South Florida14/142.362.04−0.3260th → 53rd0.677%9.1 / 7.6
10Maartje Van Dam '23Jacksonville University Fins 214/141.931.91−0.0149th → 48th0.072%9.6 / 8.4
11Aili Moffet '23Connecticut College14/141.811.47−0.3444th → 37th0.673%9.9 / 8.6
12Abbie Carlson '22Tufts University Jumbos 114/142.050.98−1.0753rd → 22nd6.290%10.3 / 8.2
13Bridget Groble '21Old Dominion University Monarchs 214/141.37u1.18−0.1933rd → 27th0.291%11.9 / 9.6
14Elizabeth Gildea '24Old Dominion University Monarchs 114/141.42-0.45−1.8734th → 3rd11.899%12.6 / 9.5

Conditions — 05/01/2021 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 46%  ·  Pressure 1008.0 hPa

Temperature

57°F
↑ 62°F   ↓ 44°F
Feels like 50°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.2 kn
avg  ·  max 12.7 kn
Gusts to 28.2 kn
From NW (309°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover11% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity46% Pressure1008.0 hPa

What this breeze does at Rhode Island — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Rhode Island in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.05)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Rhode Island by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (47 labelled fleet-race days at Rhode Island).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →