| # | School | Sailor | TOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Tufts University | Talia Toland '21 | 29 |
| 2 |  |
Boston College | Sophia Reineke '21 | 38 |
| 3 |  |
Yale University | Louisa Nordstrom '20 | 52 |
| 4 |  |
Brown University | Hannah Steadman '20 | 53 |
| 5 | |
Boston College | Elizabeth Shanahan '23 | 60 |
| 6 | |
Tufts University | Alexandra Talbot '22 | 68 |
| 7 | |
Tufts University | Annika Fedde '23 | 73 |
| 8 |  |
Boston University | Maia Agerup '20 | 80 |
| 9 |  |
Connecticut College | Aili Moffet '23 | 80 |
| 10 | |
Tufts University | Abbie Carlson '22 | 93 |
| 11 | |
Connecticut College | Analucia Clarkson '22 | 101 |
| School | Sailor | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | R7 | R8 | R9 | R10 | R11 | TOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Tufts University | Talia Toland '21 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 29 |
|
Boston College | Sophia Reineke '21 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 38 |
|
Yale University | Louisa Nordstrom '20 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 52 |
|
Brown University | Hannah Steadman '20 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 53 |
|
Boston College | Elizabeth Shanahan '23 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 60 |
|
Tufts University | Alexandra Talbot '22 | DSQ | 10 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 68 |
|
Tufts University | Annika Fedde '23 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 73 |
|
Boston University | Maia Agerup '20 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 80 |
|
Connecticut College | Aili Moffet '23 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 80 |
|
Tufts University | Abbie Carlson '22 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 93 |
|
Connecticut College | Analucia Clarkson '22 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 101 |
Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.
Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.
The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.
| Fin | Skipper | School | Races | Rating before |
Perf. rating |
Δ | Percentile before → perf. |
Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
Avg finish actual / exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Talia Toland '21 | Tufts University Jumbos 4 | 11/11 | 3.10 | 4.56 | +1.46 | 84th → 99th | 5.7 | 4% | 2.6 / 5.2 |
| 2 | Sophia Reineke '21 | Boston College Eagles 1 | 11/11 | 3.58 | 3.94 | +0.36 | 92nd → 95th | 0.4 | 27% | 3.5 / 4.3 |
| 3 | Louisa Nordstrom '20 | Yale University | 11/11 | 3.20 | 3.02 | −0.18 | 85th → 83rd | 0.1 | 46% | 4.7 / 5.0 |
| 4 | Hannah Steadman '20 | Brown University | 11/11 | 3.20 | 3.25 | +0.05 | 85th → 86th | 0.0 | 50% | 4.8 / 4.9 |
| 5 | Elizabeth Shanahan '23 | Boston College Eagles 2 | 11/11 | 2.30 | 2.81 | +0.51 | 59th → 76th | 0.9 | 25% | 5.5 / 6.4 |
| 6 | Alexandra Talbot '22 | Tufts University Jumbos 3 | 11/11 | 2.33 | 2.94 | +0.61 | 60th → 80th | 1.2 | 45% | 6.2 / 6.4 |
| 7 | Annika Fedde '23 | Tufts University Jumbos 2 | 11/11 | 2.02 | 2.34 | +0.32 | 53rd → 60th | 0.4 | 41% | 6.6 / 6.9 |
| 8 | Aili Moffet '23 | Connecticut College Camels 2 | 11/11 | 1.80 | 1.99 | +0.20 | 44th → 52nd | 0.1 | 51% | 7.3 / 7.2 |
| 8 | Maia Agerup '20 | Boston University | 11/11 | 3.00 | 1.86 | −1.14 | 82nd → 47th | 5.2 | 88% | 7.3 / 5.3 |
| 10 | Abbie Carlson '22 | Tufts University Jumbos 1 | 11/11 | 1.78 | 1.16 | −0.62 | 43rd → 26th | 1.2 | 82% | 8.5 / 7.3 |
| 11 | Analucia Clarkson '22 | Connecticut College Camels 1 | 11/11 | 1.85 | 1.18 | −0.67 | 46th → 27th | 1.6 | 91% | 9.2 / 7.1 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.14 means a rating gap counts about 12% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
