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Tyrell Trophy

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Brown University Brown University Bears 4 4 8
2 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 6 2 8
3 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2 8 10
4 Sacred Heart University Sacred Heart University Pioneers 10 6 16
5 Fairfield University Fairfield University Stags 10 11 21
6 University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 10 14 24
7 Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 14 11 25
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (7 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears1919
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears2424
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies2525
Fairfield UniversityFairfield University Stags2020
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers2121
Sacred Heart UniversitySacred Heart University Pioneers2222
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos2323

Division B

Team1B2B
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears2020
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears2525
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies1919
Fairfield UniversityFairfield University Stags2121
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers2222
Sacred Heart UniversitySacred Heart University Pioneers2323
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos2424

Conditions — 04/10/2016 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 36%  ·  Pressure 1024.7 hPa

Temperature

42°F
↑ 46°F   ↓ 33°F
Feels like 35°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.2 kn
avg  ·  max 8.2 kn
Gusts to 21.6 kn
From W (278°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity36% Pressure1024.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at U. Connecticut: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.12 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.04
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.52 ± 0.32)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at U. Connecticut by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 7 labelled days at U. Connecticut, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →