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# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 32
2 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 44
3 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 64
4 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 77
5 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 77
6 Boston University Boston University Terriers 79
7 McGill University McGill University Redbirds 85
8 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 90
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 A 1 1 1 6 9 Alp Rodopman '17
Nihal Pai '20
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson A 3 2 5 1 11 Jessica Williams '20
Lena Episalla '19
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 B 5 5 2 2 14 Tyler Paige '18
Emma Clutterbuck '20
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams A 6 3 4 4 17 Christopher Pearson '20
Caroline Rocchio '20
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 A 2 4 9 3 18 Pere Puig '19
Emily Calandrella '20
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 A 4 6 12 5 27 Andrew Savage '19
Grace Materne '20
Boston University Boston University Terriers B 7 13 6 7 33 John Wetzel '20
Skye Shepherd '20
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson B 12 10 3 8 33 Sofia Marie Mascia '20
Cara Kennedy Cuomo '17
McGill University McGill University Redbirds B 13 7 7 9 36 William Gleckner '17
Lauren Morris '17
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 B 8 11 8 10 37 John Duncan '19
Alexandra Arsenault '20
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies A 10 8 11 12 41 William Manning '18
Romain Astie '20
Boston University Boston University Terriers A 9 12 14 11 46 Samuel Wright '18
Olivia Cronin-Golomb '20
McGill University McGill University Redbirds A 11 14 10 14 49 Malich Altman '19
Emilie Macfie '17
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies B 14 9 13 13 49 Ian Campbell '19
Alaina Muchnick '21
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams B 15 15 15 15 60 Peter Gunn '20
Alyssa Hall '20
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 B DNS DNS DNS DNS 68 Fakie Mcdon'Texist '26
Waldo Can'Tbefound '26
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (40 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers5555
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson7777
McGill UniversityMcGill University Redbirds11111111
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies13131313
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams1111
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 117171717
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 219191919
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 322222222

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers6666
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson8888
McGill UniversityMcGill University Redbirds10101010
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies14141414
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams2222
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 118181818
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 220202020
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 323232323

Conditions — 10/02/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 83%  ·  Pressure 1019.4 hPa

Temperature

57°F
↑ 59°F   ↓ 55°F
Feels like 55°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.8 kn
avg  ·  max 8.4 kn
Gusts to 17.7 kn
From NNE (30°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity83% Pressure1019.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 5 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Tufts: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.06
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.08 ± 0.26)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →