Amherst College '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.83 (fleet 1.14) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 2–10 (17%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 2–10 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (12 matches) the record is 2–10 against 0.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.2). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-03-31 | Herring Pond Team Race | skipper | 0.74 | 1.88 | 2–10 | 0.8 | +1.14 | 1.1 | 18% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | A | 11 | 11.8 | 0.85 |
| NE Fall Tournament | Skipper | A | 5 | 7.4 | -3.23 |
| McGill Cup | Skipper | A | 11 | 1.6 | 1.75 |
| Fall Foliage | Skipper | A | 7 | 9.0 | -0.65 |
| 58th Donaghy Bowl | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.5 | 0.19 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Noah Brayer |  University of Massachusetts at Amherst |
'18 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
