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Fall Foliage

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 101
2 Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 106
3 University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 118
4 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 132
5 Williams College Williams College Ephs 178
6 Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 185
7 McGill University McGill University Redbirds 229
8 Bates College Bates College Bobcats 236
9 Amherst College Amherst College Lord Jeffs 257
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats A 6 1 12 2 1 4 9 2 4 41 William Dykes '15
David Mazotas '16
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers A 1 2 4 12 15 3 6 1 2 46 Ben Brown '18
Alden Cowap '17
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies A 2 3 2 7 5 9 4 6 10 48 Michael Rottier '15
Corie Fay '16
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos B 8 5 1 3 3 16 8 9 1 54 Aaron Klein '18
Pilar Bancalari '18
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats B 3 4 11 9 9 7 7 4 6 60 Ryan Gershuny '18
Daniel Lee '18
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers B 13 13 10 5 6 1 2 7 3 60 Peter Kerby-Miller '17 [1-4]
Jack Kerby-Miller '14 [5-9]
Annalisa Baratta '15 [1-4]
Ellen Sartorelli '17 [5-9]
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies B 4 9 7 4 12 10 12 5 7 70 Jennifer Lee '17
Shannon Nardi '16
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green A 7 15 6 8 13 2 3 10 12 76 John Sullivan '18
Caroline Lauer '18
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos A 14 7 5 16 2 5 17 3 9 78 Pierre Dupont '16
Julia Marshall '18
Williams College Williams College Ephs A 11 8 14 13 4 11 5 11 11 88 Jorge Castro '16
Samantha Polsky '17
Williams College Williams College Ephs B 12 11 3 10 10 15 13 8 8 90 Brent Bomkamp '15
Abraham Kirby-Galen '16
McGill University McGill University Redbirds B 15 6 8 14 11 8 10 12 16 100 Holly Mcgarr '17
Amanda Ivey '17
Amherst College Amherst College Lord Jeffs A 9 DNF DNS 1 7 14 11 16 5 101 Noah Brayer '18 [1-9]
Olivia Recht '15 [1-5]
Beatrice Genco '17 [6-9]
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green B 16 10 13 11 14 13 1 18 13 109 Oliver Engelhart '18
India Burdon Dasbach '18
Bates College Bates College Bobcats B 10 12 15 18 8 12 14 13 14 116 Hannah Goldberg '16
Madeline Bruno '17
Bates College Bates College Bobcats A 5 14 9 15 16 17 15 14 15 120 Amy Macdonald '18
Mary Ferguson '18
McGill University McGill University Redbirds A 17 16 17 6 17 6 16 17 17 129 Simon Li '14
Lauren Morris '17
Amherst College Amherst College Lord Jeffs B DNF 17 16 17 18 18 18 15 18 156 Amelia Vinciguerra '17
Jacob Cunningham '15
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2010 (40 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A
Amherst CollegeAmherst College Lord Jeffs111111111
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats222222222
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies777777777
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green333333333
McGill UniversityMcGill University Redbirds444444444
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers555555555
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats888888888
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos666666666
Williams CollegeWilliams College Ephs999999999

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B
Amherst CollegeAmherst College Lord Jeffs101010101010101010
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats111111111111111111
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies161616161616161616
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green121212121212121212
McGill UniversityMcGill University Redbirds131313131313131313
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers141414141414141414
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats171717171717171717
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos151515151515151515
Williams CollegeWilliams College Ephs181818181818181818

Conditions — 10/25/2014 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 61%  ·  Pressure 1003.7 hPa

Temperature

56°F
↑ 62°F   ↓ 45°F
Feels like 52°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.7 kn
avg  ·  max 6.5 kn
Gusts to 15.6 kn
From W (272°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover34% Sunshine10.4 hrs Humidity61% Pressure1003.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at New Hampshire: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.01
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.14 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at New Hampshire by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (22 labelled days at New Hampshire).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →