NEISA Men's Singlehanded Championships

HostBoston College
Date09/15/2018
TypeConference Championship
BoatLaser
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Harvard University	Henry Marshall '22	37
2	Boston College	Scott Rasmussen '20	47
3	Brown University	Patrick Shanahan '19	56
4	Boston University	Javier De Urdanibia Panos '21	67
5	Yale University	Nicholas Baird '19	75
6	Boston College	Loghlen Rickard '22	76
7	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Richie Gordon '21	79
8	Roger Williams University	Spencer Cartwright '22	89
9	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Gage Schoenherr '21	98
10	Roger Williams University	Peter Neal '20	101
11	Brown University	Gabriel Hannon '20	111
12	Tufts University	Matthew Keller '21	124
13	Roger Williams University	Grant Gridley '22	132
14	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Andrew Widmeier '20	153
15	Harvard University	Andrew Puopolo '19	154
16	Boston University	Michael Sabourin '20	162
17	Harvard University	Jackson Wagner '19	175
18	University of Rhode Island	Parker Colantuono '22	178
19	Boston University	Collin Alexander '20	189
20	Connecticut College	William Bedford '22	196

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	TOT
Harvard University	Henry Marshall '22	2	1	9	6	2	3	3	7	2	1	1	37
Boston College	Scott Rasmussen '20	11	9	2	7	1	2	2	1	5	5	2	47
Brown University	Patrick Shanahan '19	8	2	5	14	3	5	11	2	1	2	3	56
Boston University	Javier De Urdanibia Panos '21	1	5	6	3	11	4	14	4	9	6	4	67
Yale University	Nicholas Baird '19	3	6	1	11	6	1	7	5	13	8	14	75
Boston College	Loghlen Rickard '22	14	4	10	2	15	7	6	3	4	3	8	76
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Richie Gordon '21	7	3	12	10	4	9	1	8	8	4	13	79
Roger Williams University	Spencer Cartwright '22	10	8	4	1	5	10	9	11	10	10	11	89
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Gage Schoenherr '21	5	13	11	5	7	11	4	12	3	11	16	98
Roger Williams University	Peter Neal '20	4	7	3	12	19	8	10	6	15	12	5	101
Brown University	Gabriel Hannon '20	6	15	8	4	10	15	18	10	7	9	9	111
Tufts University	Matthew Keller '21	17	14	7	16	13	16	5	BKD	6	14	7	124
Roger Williams University	Grant Gridley '22	13	16	15	15	8	6	13	9	16	15	6	132
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Andrew Widmeier '20	18	12	18	13	9	13	8	18	12	13	19	153
Harvard University	Andrew Puopolo '19	15	10	13	18	14	18	17	13	11	7	18	154
Boston University	Michael Sabourin '20	20	11	16	8	16	17	20	14	14	16	10	162
Harvard University	Jackson Wagner '19	12	18	19	20	12	12	12	19	19	20	12	175
University of Rhode Island	Parker Colantuono '22	9	19	14	9	20	19	19	15	17	17	20	178
Boston University	Collin Alexander '20	16	17	17	17	17	20	16	16	18	18	17	189
Connecticut College	William Bedford '22	19	20	20	19	18	14	15	17	20	19	15	196

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

^u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A 20 boats · 11 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Henry Marshall '22	Harvard University Crimson 3	11/11	3.32	5.00	+1.68	88th → 99th	8.0	<1%	3.4 / 8.2
2	Scott Rasmussen '20	Boston College Eagles 1	11/11	3.29	4.50	+1.21	87th → 99th	4.6	3%	4.3 / 8.3
3	Patrick Shanahan '19	Brown University Bears 1	11/11	3.50	4.09	+0.59	90th → 95th	1.3	12%	5.1 / 7.6
4	Javier De Urdanibia Panos '21	Boston University Terriers 2	11/11	2.91	3.81	+0.91	79th → 94th	2.9	14%	6.1 / 9.3
5	Nicholas Baird '19	Yale University	11/11	3.74	3.56	−0.18	93rd → 92nd	0.1	50%	6.8 / 7.0
6	Loghlen Rickard '22	Boston College Eagles 2	11/11	1.30^u	3.55	+2.25	30th → 92nd	14.3	1%	6.9 / 14.0
7	Richie Gordon '21	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3	11/11	3.02	3.59	+0.57	83rd → 92nd	1.2	24%	7.2 / 9.0
8	Spencer Cartwright '22	Roger Williams University Hawks 3	11/11	2.78	3.39	+0.61	75th → 89th	1.4	31%	8.1 / 9.8
9	Gage Schoenherr '21	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1	11/11	3.05	3.06	+0.01	83rd → 83rd	0.0	52%	8.9 / 8.9
10	Peter Neal '20	Roger Williams University Hawks 1	11/11	2.51	2.84	+0.34	64th → 78th	0.4	27%	9.2 / 10.7
11	Gabriel Hannon '20	Brown University Bears 2	11/11	1.81	2.78	+0.97	44th → 75th	3.4	16%	10.1 / 12.6
12	Grant Gridley '22	Roger Williams University Hawks 2	11/11	2.64	2.43	−0.22	70th → 62nd	0.2	78%	12.0 / 10.2
13	Matthew Keller '21	Tufts University	11/11	1.97	2.48	+0.51	50th → 62nd	1.0	51%	12.4 / 12.2
14	Andrew Widmeier '20	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2	11/11	2.65	1.85	−0.80	70th → 46th	3.3	93%	13.9 / 10.2
15	Andrew Puopolo '19	Harvard University Crimson 1	11/11	2.29	1.99	−0.30	59th → 51st	0.4	81%	14.0 / 11.3
16	Michael Sabourin '20	Boston University Terriers 1	11/11	2.19	1.50	−0.69	57th → 38th	2.0	85%	14.7 / 11.5
17	Jackson Wagner '19	Harvard University Crimson 2	11/11	2.16	0.86	−1.29	56th → 20th	6.7	93%	15.9 / 11.6
18	Parker Colantuono '22	University of Rhode Island	11/11	2.18	1.10	−1.07	57th → 25th	5.2	97%	16.2 / 11.6
19	Collin Alexander '20	Boston University Terriers 3	11/11	2.18	1.29	−0.88	57th → 30th	4.0	98%	17.2 / 11.6
20	William Bedford '22	Connecticut College	11/11	1.14^u	0.81	−0.32	25th → 18th	0.4	91%	17.8 / 14.4

Conditions — 09/15/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 85% · Pressure 1022.7 hPa

Temperature

69°F

↑ 72°F ↓ 62°F

Feels like 72°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

3.1 kn

avg · max 5.9 kn

Gusts to 13.6 kn

From E (91°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover66% Sunshine6.2 hrs Humidity85% Pressure1022.7 hPa

What this breeze does at Boston College — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Boston College in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Boston College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (29 labelled fleet-race days at Boston College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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