Boston University '15
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 72.50 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.079 rating points from 257 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.53 (fleet 2.11) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 6–17 (26%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 1 | — | 3–12 |
| Spring 2014 | 1 | — | 3–5 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (23 matches) the record is 6–17 against 7.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.7). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-04-04 | 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | crew | 2.78 | 1.95 | 3–12 | 5.0 | −0.83 | 1.2 | 94% |
| 2014-03-08 | John Jackson Team Race Regatta | crew | 2.90 | 3.33 | 3–5 | 2.6 | +0.43 | 0.1 | 52% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | B | 5 | 11.4 | 1.67 |
| Southern Series 1 | Skipper | A | 9 | 6.3 | 1.82 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.4 | 2.46 |
| NEISA Women's Champs, Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 12.7 | 1.40 |
| Coast Guard Alumni Bowl/NE Champs | Crew | B | 5 | 7.6 | — |
| Charleston Coed | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.9 | 2.00 |
| Admiral Alymers | Skipper | B | 11 | 5.6 | 2.32 |
| 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Crew | TR | 15 | 20% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 10.7 | 2.00 |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 11.6 | 0.46 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 12.4 | 1.80 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 3 | 6.3 | 2.81 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 14.8 | 1.07 |
| Dark of Night | Skipper | B | 2 | 4.5 | 2.60 |
| Crews Regatta | Crew | B | 6 | 2.2 | — |
| Bowdoin Women's Invitational Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 8.0 | 0.56 |
| 35th Yale Women's Intersectional Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 13.7 | 1.40 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Veitor Trophy @ SRU | Crew | B | 8 | 8.2 | — |
| Reed Trophy / NEISA Women's Champs Women's | Crew | B | 17 | 6.9 | — |
| President's Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 5 | 4.8 | — |
| John Jackson Team Race Regatta | Crew | TR | 17 | 53% | — |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 14 | 9.4 | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 12 | 11.2 | — |
| Coast Guard Bowl/N.E. Dinghy Champs | Crew | A | 6 | 12.2 | — |
| Charleston Women's Women's | Crew | B | 11 | 8.4 | — |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 16.8 | 0.16 |
| Veitor Trophy @ SRU | Crew | A, B | 3 | 3.0 | — |
| NEISA Women's Champs, Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 14.5 | 0.24 |
| Owen / Mosbacher / Knapp Trophies | Crew | B | 18 | 8.4 | — |
| BU President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 10.5 | 1.14 |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.2 | 0.99 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Crew | A | 9 | 12.0 | — |
| Stu Nelson Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 18 | 10.6 | — |
| Pen Bay Open | Crew | A | 12 | 9.2 | — |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Crew | A | 16 | 8.6 | — |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Crew | A | 12 | 9.4 | — |
| 2012 Yale Women's Intersectional Women's | Crew | A | 7 | 8.6 | — |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Women's | Crew | B | 9 | 13.4 | — |
| Southern Series Two | Crew | B | 7 | 4.9 | — |
| President's Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 11 | 8.7 | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Crew | B | 19 | 12.3 | — |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Regis Bowl Women's | Crew | B | 7 | 9.4 | — |
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Crew | A | 12 | 12.8 | — |
| Pen Bay Open | Crew | B | 12 | 5.4 | — |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Crew | B | 4 | 12.5 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
