George Washington University '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.01 (fleet 2.77) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 2–8 (20%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 1 | 2–8 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (10 matches) the record is 2–8 against 2.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-03-01 | The Tom Noble Team Race | skipper | 1.99 | 1.82 | 2–8 | 2.2 | −0.16 | 0.0 | 72% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 3 | 10.7 | 2.36 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 10.0 | 2.89 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 9.2 | 3.28 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championships Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 7.9 | 2.99 |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 9.2 | 2.14 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 3 | 12.7 | 1.60 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 7 | 4.9 | 3.55 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 8.5 | 2.93 |
| Charleston Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.9 | 2.27 |
| Sperry ICSA Women’s National Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 10.5 | 2.53 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 10.3 | 2.36 |
| MAISA Women's Fall Dinghy Women's | Skipper | A | 4 | 7.5 | 2.17 |
| 35th Yale Women's Intersectional Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 12.2 | 2.22 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| The Tom Noble Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 20% | — |
| St. Mary's Women's Inter-Conference Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 10.3 | 2.29 |
| Owen, Mosbacher and Knapp Trophies | Skipper | A | 10 | 11.8 | 2.14 |
| Navy Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 12.5 | 2.03 |
| MAISA Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 7.5 | 1.91 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.5 | 2.75 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 14.5 | 1.63 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.0 | 1.97 |
| 64th Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 13.7 | 1.58 |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 12.4 | 2.02 |
| MAISA Women's Fall Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.5 | 1.73 |
| KP Dinghy Open | Skipper | A | 16 | 10.6 | 2.06 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| MAISA Women's Spring Dinghy Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.8 | 2.70 |
| MAISA/SAISA | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.9 | 2.02 |
| Charleston Spring Coed | Skipper | B | 8 | 8.6 | 2.40 |
| America Trophy | Skipper | B | 18 | 11.6 | 1.93 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 18 | 11.7 | 1.77 |
| North Fall #2 Qualifier | Skipper | A | 15 | 4.9 | 2.35 |
| MAISA Women's Fall Dinghy Champs Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.9 | 1.78 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | B | 11 | 9.7 | 1.24 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
