Washington College '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.94 (fleet 2.67) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 33–25 (57%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 3 | 19–11 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 2 | 14–14 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (46 matches) the record is 24–22 against 16.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+7.5). 3 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 11 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-03-29 | MAISA Team Race Challenge | skipper | 2.81 | 1.50 | 4–3 | 5.3 | −1.31 | 1.3 | 97% |
| 2014-03-15 | Southern New-England Team Race | skipper | 2.74 | 4.47 | 7–5 | 3.4 | +1.73 | 4.7 | 1% |
| 2014-03-01 | The Tom Noble Team Race | skipper | 2.90 | 4.47 | 8–3 | 5.5 | +1.58 | 2.8 | 5% |
| 2013-04-06 | Friis & Marchiando Trophies | skipper | 2.55 | 3.67 | 5–11 | 2.3 | +1.12 | 2.4 | 6% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| The Tom Noble Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 70% | — |
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 13.5 | 2.09 |
| Southern New-England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 58% | — |
| MAISA Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 7 | 57% | — |
| MAISA/SAISA | Skipper | B | 4 | 1.2 | 5.88 |
| Charleston Spring Co-Ed | Skipper | A | 6 | 10.8 | 2.39 |
| 79th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | C | 14 | 9.0 | 2.84 |
| America Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.1 | 2.95 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Charles Nunn |  Ocean County College |
'16 |
| ICSA | Charles Nunn |  University of Rhode Island |
'16 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
