| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
College of Charleston | Cougars | 5–1 |
| 2 |  |
University of South Florida | Bulls | 3–3 |
| 3 |  |
Eckerd College | Tritons | 1–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 5,462 team race matches sailed before 2015-04-11, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 7 of 9 matches (78%) with a log-loss of 0.517 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | College of Charleston Cougars | 1 | 12.89 school +0.38 | Jake Reynolds / Alicia Blumenthal 4.42 Ryan Davidson / Emily Stuart 4.00 Charles Rees / Tierney Driscoll 4.08 | 93% | 5–1 (83%) | −0.6 |
| 2 | University of South Florida Bulls | 2 | 10.78 school −0.18 | Benjamin Mohney / Kristen Walker 3.46 Christopher Stocke / Ali Yarbrough 4.01 Fernando Monllor / Rebecca Campbell 3.48 | 46% | 3–3 (50%) | +0.2 |
| 3 | Eckerd College Tritons | 3 | 9.29 school −0.21, home +0.25 | Jason D'Agostino / Ann Williamson 3.36 Timothy Siemers / Jessica Resnick 3.11 Andrew Schoene / William Mckenzie 2.75 | 10% | 1–5 (17%) | +0.4 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Eckerd College | 9.29 | 9.87 | 1–5 | 0.6 | +0.58 | 0.2 | 50% |
| 2 | University of South Florida | 10.78 | 11.09 | 3–3 | 2.8 | +0.31 | 0.1 | 65% |
| 1 | College of Charleston | 12.89 | 11.82 | 5–1 | 5.6 | −1.06 | 0.5 | 95% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason D'Agostino | Eckerd College | 3.36 | 3.94 | 1–5 | 0.6 | +0.58 | 0.2 | 50% |
| Timothy Siemers | Eckerd College | 3.11 | 3.69 | 1–5 | 0.6 | +0.58 | 0.2 | 50% |
| Andrew Schoene | Eckerd College | 2.75 | 3.33 | 1–5 | 0.6 | +0.58 | 0.2 | 50% |
| Benjamin Mohney | University of South Florida | 3.46 | 3.77 | 3–3 | 2.8 | +0.31 | 0.1 | 65% |
| Christopher Stocke | University of South Florida | 4.01 | 4.32 | 3–3 | 2.8 | +0.31 | 0.1 | 65% |
| Fernando Monllor | University of South Florida | 3.48 | 3.79 | 3–3 | 2.8 | +0.31 | 0.1 | 65% |
| Jake Reynolds | College of Charleston | 4.42 | 3.35 | 5–1 | 5.6 | −1.06 | 0.5 | 95% |
| Ryan Davidson | College of Charleston | 4.00 | 2.93 | 5–1 | 5.6 | −1.06 | 0.5 | 95% |
| Charles Rees | College of Charleston | 4.08 | 3.01 | 5–1 | 5.6 | −1.06 | 0.5 | 95% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Cougars | Bulls | Tritons | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| College of Charleston Cougars | 2–0 | ✕ | W | W |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 0–2 | L | ✕ | L |
| Eckerd College Tritons | 1–1 | L | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Cougars | Bulls | Tritons | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| College of Charleston Cougars | 1–1 | ✕ | L | W |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 2–0 | W | ✕ | W |
| Eckerd College Tritons | 0–2 | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Cougars | Bulls | Tritons | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| College of Charleston Cougars | 2–0 | ✕ | W | W |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 1–1 | L | ✕ | W |
| Eckerd College Tritons | 0–2 | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Cougars | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 1-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Tritons | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 1-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Cougars | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Bulls | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Bulls | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Cougars | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Bulls | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
College of Charleston | Cougars | Charles Rees '16 Jake Reynolds '16 Ryan Davidson '16 |
Tierney Driscoll '15 Alicia Blumenthal '15 Emily Stuart '16 |
|
University of South Florida | Bulls | Benjamin Mohney '15 Christopher Stocke '15 Fernando Monllor '16 |
Kristen Walker '17 Ali Yarbrough '16 Rebecca Campbell '16 |
|
Eckerd College | Tritons | Andrew Schoene '18 Jason D'Agostino '17 Timothy Siemers '16 |
William Mckenzie '17 Ann Williamson '15 Jessica Resnick '16 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
