George Washington University '15
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.94 (fleet 1.30) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 0–11 (0%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 0–11 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (11 matches) the record is 0–11 against 0.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-11-08 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 1.07 | -1.93 | 0–11 | 0.5 | ≤−3.00 | 1.0 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 18 | 15.2 | 0.85 |
| Senators Cup | Skipper | B | 16 | 7.1 | 1.39 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.3 | 1.33 |
| KP Dinghy Open | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.8 | 1.90 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Andrew Beckmann |  U. S. Military Academy |
'15 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
