| # | School | Sailor | TOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Old Dominion University | Gavin Rudolph '12 | 46 |
| 2 |  |
Georgetown University | Michael Schalka '13 | 50 |
| 3 | |
Old Dominion University | Collin Leon '13 | 58 |
| 4 |  |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | John Wallace '14 | 58 |
| 5 |  |
University of Pennsylvania | Michael Russom '13 | 69 |
| 6 |  |
U. S. Naval Academy | Taylor Vann '13 | 74 |
| 7 | |
Georgetown University | Matthew Gowell '14 | 74 |
| 8 | |
U. S. Naval Academy | Devin Laviano '13 | 76 |
| 9 | |
U. S. Naval Academy | Michael Grove '14 | 88 |
| 10 | |
Old Dominion University | Zach Runci '13 | 97 |
| 11 | |
U. S. Naval Academy | George Prieto '13 | 117 |
| 12 |  |
George Washington University | Hussain Patel '13 | 128 |
| School | Sailor | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | R7 | R8 | R9 | R10 | R11 | R12 | TOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Old Dominion University | Gavin Rudolph '12 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 46 |
|
Georgetown University | Michael Schalka '13 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 50 |
|
Old Dominion University | Collin Leon '13 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 58 |
|
St. Mary's College of Maryland | John Wallace '14 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 58 |
|
University of Pennsylvania | Michael Russom '13 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 69 |
|
U. S. Naval Academy | Taylor Vann '13 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 4 | 74 |
|
Georgetown University | Matthew Gowell '14 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 74 |
|
U. S. Naval Academy | Devin Laviano '13 | 2 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 76 |
|
U. S. Naval Academy | Michael Grove '14 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 11 | 88 |
|
Old Dominion University | Zach Runci '13 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 3 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 97 |
|
U. S. Naval Academy | George Prieto '13 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 117 |
|
George Washington University | Hussain Patel '13 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 11 | BKD | 128 |
Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.
Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.
The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.
| Fin | Skipper | School | Races | Rating before |
Perf. rating |
Δ | Percentile before → perf. |
Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
Avg finish actual / exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gavin Rudolph '12 | Old Dominion University Monarchs 2 | 12/12 | 1.81 | 3.29 | +1.48 | 44th → 86th | 7.1 | 5% | 3.8 / 6.6 |
| 2 | Michael Schalka '13 | Georgetown University Hoyas 2 | 12/12 | 1.90 | 2.96 | +1.06 | 48th → 81st | 4.0 | 10% | 4.2 / 6.5 |
| 3 | Collin Leon '13 | Old Dominion University Monarchs 1 | 12/12 | 2.00 | 2.60 | +0.60 | 52nd → 68th | 1.3 | 22% | 4.8 / 6.3 |
| 3 | John Wallace '14 | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 12/12 | 2.61 | 2.64 | +0.03 | 68th → 69th | 0.0 | 44% | 4.8 / 5.2 |
| 5 | Michael Russom '13 | University of Pennsylvania | 12/12 | 2.01 | 2.31 | +0.29 | 52nd → 60th | 0.4 | 41% | 5.8 / 6.3 |
| 6 | Matthew Gowell '14 | Georgetown University Hoyas 1 | 12/12 | 2.12 | 1.92 | −0.20 | 56th → 48th | 0.2 | 56% | 6.2 / 6.0 |
| 6 | Taylor Vann '13 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3 | 12/12 | 1.86 | 2.00 | +0.13 | 47th → 52nd | 0.1 | 44% | 6.2 / 6.5 |
| 8 | Devin Laviano '13 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 4 | 12/12 | 2.03 | 1.87 | −0.17 | 53rd → 47th | 0.1 | 55% | 6.3 / 6.2 |
| 9 | Michael Grove '14 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 | 12/12 | 1.86 | 1.55 | −0.31 | 47th → 39th | 0.4 | 68% | 7.3 / 6.5 |
| 10 | Zach Runci '13 | Old Dominion University Monarchs 3 | 12/12 | 1.83 | 1.17 | −0.65 | 45th → 27th | 1.9 | 79% | 8.1 / 6.6 |
| 11 | George Prieto '13 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 | 12/12 | 1.63 | 0.64 | −0.98 | 40th → 17th | 4.1 | 95% | 9.8 / 6.9 |
| 12 | Hussain Patel '13 | George Washington University | 12/12 | 0.78 | 0.53 | −0.25 | 18th → 14th | 0.2 | 96% | 10.8 / 8.3 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
