Carl Van Duyne Maisa Singles

HostNavy
Date10/09/2010
TypeConference Championship
BoatLaser
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Georgetown University	Charlie Buckingham '11	81
2	Cornell University	Philip Alley '12	107
3	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Samuel Blouin '12	118
4	Georgetown University	Chris Barnard '13	125
5	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Timothy Zacher '13	138
6	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Sam Padnos '11	139
7	U. S. Naval Academy	Max Lopez '14	141
8	U. S. Naval Academy	Robert Vann '11	144
9	Georgetown University	Michael Schalka '13	152
10	St. Mary's College of Maryland	John Wallace '14	156
11	Old Dominion University	Collin Leon '13	158
12	Old Dominion University	Gavin Rudolph '12	201
13	SUNY Maritime College	Randall Hartranft '12	214
14	SUNY Maritime College	Matthew Schoene '15	228
15	U. S. Naval Academy	Alejandro Ravelo '11	228
16	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Joseph Mignon '14	230
17	SUNY Maritime College	Ted Green '13	246
18	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Evan Siepert '13	275

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	R15	R16	R17	R18	TOT
Georgetown University	Charlie Buckingham '11	3	3	9	8	5	4	1	4	5	2	12	2	1	8	11	1	1	1	81
Cornell University	Philip Alley '12	2	1	3	1	18	11	5	8	8	6	4	6	3	11	3	4	4	9	107
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Samuel Blouin '12	6	6	8	2	1	14	10	1	6	14	3	12	5	9	5	7	2	7	118
Georgetown University	Chris Barnard '13	14	5	6	7	3	2	2	7	2	11	10	5	7	14	1	9	12	8	125
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Timothy Zacher '13	13	7	14	9	16	10	6	2	1	5	5	3	11	13	2	6	3	12	138
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Sam Padnos '11	7	11	17	4	12	5	16	3	10	1	8	1	6	7	4	8	8	11	139
U. S. Naval Academy	Max Lopez '14	1	10	5	5	7	13	8	15	3	9	18	13	8	1	8	2	13	2	141
U. S. Naval Academy	Robert Vann '11	5	13	1	16	15	17	17	6	4	4	2	7	9	5	6	3	9	5	144
Georgetown University	Michael Schalka '13	10	2	12	18	10	12	3	9	12	15	7	4	2	3	7	11	5	10	152
St. Mary's College of Maryland	John Wallace '14	9	8	11	6	9	7	4	12	7	8	9	DSQ	4	2	15	16	7	3	156
Old Dominion University	Collin Leon '13	15	14	2	3	6	3	9	11	9	16	6	10	12	4	13	13	6	6	158
Old Dominion University	Gavin Rudolph '12	4	4	13	10	8	15	12	13	15	7	13	8	10	12	12	14	14	17	201
SUNY Maritime College	Randall Hartranft '12	12	17	4	12	2	18	18	14	18	3	14	16	13	18	9	12	10	4	214
SUNY Maritime College	Matthew Schoene '15	11	9	15	11	14	16	14	17	16	18	1	14	16	10	10	5	15	16	228
U. S. Naval Academy	Alejandro Ravelo '11	17	18	10	15	4	1	7	10	13	13	17	11	14	16	14	10	DNS	DNS	228
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Joseph Mignon '14	8	16	7	17	13	9	13	16	11	12	11	9	15	15	18	15	11	14	230
SUNY Maritime College	Ted Green '13	16	15	18	14	17	8	11	5	14	10	16	15	18	6	16	18	16	13	246
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Evan Siepert '13	18	12	16	13	11	6	15	18	17	17	15	17	17	17	17	17	17	15	275

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

^u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A 18 boats · 18 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Charlie Buckingham '11	Georgetown University Hoyas 1	18/18	3.39	3.84	+0.45	89th → 94th	1.2	19%	4.5 / 6.5
2	Philip Alley '12	Cornell University	18/18	1.94	3.20	+1.26	50th → 85th	7.9	2%	5.9 / 10.2
3	Samuel Blouin '12	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Herons	18/18	2.66	3.11	+0.45	71st → 84th	1.3	19%	6.6 / 8.3
4	Chris Barnard '13	Georgetown University Hoyas 2	18/18	2.97	2.98	+0.01	81st → 81st	0.0	41%	6.9 / 7.5
5	Timothy Zacher '13	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2	18/18	2.01	2.79	+0.78	52nd → 75th	3.7	12%	7.7 / 10.1
6	Sam Padnos '11	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1	18/18	2.51	2.70	+0.19	64th → 72nd	0.2	36%	7.7 / 8.7
7	Max Lopez '14	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	18/18	2.31	2.57	+0.26	60th → 67th	0.4	30%	7.8 / 9.2
8	Robert Vann '11	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3	18/18	2.68	2.44	−0.24	71st → 62nd	0.4	49%	8.0 / 8.2
9	Michael Schalka '13	Georgetown University Hoyas 3	18/18	1.90	2.52	+0.62	48th → 65th	2.2	23%	8.4 / 10.3
10	John Wallace '14	St. Mary's College of Maryland	18/18	2.61	2.71	+0.10	68th → 72nd	0.1	57%	8.7 / 8.4
11	Collin Leon '13	Old Dominion University Monarchs 2	18/18	2.00	2.54	+0.54	52nd → 66th	1.8	30%	8.8 / 10.1
12	Gavin Rudolph '12	Old Dominion University Monarchs 1	18/18	1.95	1.96	+0.01	50th → 50th	0.0	66%	11.2 / 10.2
13	Randall Hartranft '12	SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1	18/18	2.10	1.31	−0.79	55th → 30th	4.2	81%	11.9 / 9.7
14	Alejandro Ravelo '11	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	18/18	2.32	1.66	−0.67	60th → 41st	3.0	91%	12.7 / 9.3
14	Matthew Schoene '15	SUNY Maritime College Privateers 3	18/18	1.59	1.49	−0.09	39th → 38th	0.1	77%	12.7 / 11.2
16	Joseph Mignon '14	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3	18/18	1.13^u	1.67	+0.53	25th → 41st	1.7	57%	12.8 / 12.3
17	Ted Green '13	SUNY Maritime College Privateers 2	18/18	2.14	1.10	−1.04	56th → 25th	8.2	95%	13.7 / 9.7
18	Evan Siepert '13	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	18/18	1.64	0.72	−0.92	40th → 17th	5.9	96%	15.3 / 11.1

Conditions — 10/09/2010 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 55% · Pressure 1014.2 hPa

Temperature

70°F

↑ 76°F ↓ 58°F

Feels like 68°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.0 kn

avg · max 7.8 kn

Gusts to 12.2 kn

From WNW (293°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.8 hrs Humidity55% Pressure1014.2 hPa

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu