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SAISA South Points #2

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 4 5 9
2 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Dolphins 7 3 10
3 University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 5 6 11
4 Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Eagles 4 8 12
5 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 10 13 23
6 Florida State University Florida State University Florida State 14 11 25
7 New College of Florida New College of Florida New College 15 11 26
8 Rollins College Rollins College Tars 10 18 28
9 University of Florida University of Florida Gators 13 15 28
SchoolTeam R1 R2 TOT Sailors
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 1 3 4 Seth Barrows '15
Morgan Engle '15
Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Eagles 2 2 4 Joel Hurley '14
William Layne '16
University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 4 1 5 Giancarlo Falconi '16
Nick Gangemi '16
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Dolphins 3 4 7 Roy Ingham '15
Victoria Caba '17
Rollins College Rollins College Tars 5 5 10 Blake Pierce '14
Ashley Siana '14
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls BYE BYE 10 Lauren Youngerman '16
Tekla Mayotte '16
University of Florida University of Florida Gators 6 7 13 Thomas Monson '14
Angela Skane '16
Florida State University Florida State University Florida State 8 6 14 Chris Mougey '15
John Sutton '16
New College of Florida New College of Florida New College 7 8 15 Sophia Schultz '17
Kaylin Saffe '16
SchoolTeam R1 R2 TOT Sailors
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Dolphins 1 2 3 Daniel Lawless '17
Mara Strobel-Lanka '17
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 4 1 5 Bradford Cederberg '15
Heidi Carlson '16
University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 3 3 6 Kevin Kahover '15
Korbin Kirk '16
Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Eagles 2 6 8 Joseph Geller '16
Trevor Johnson '16
New College of Florida New College of Florida New College 6 5 11 Michael Long '14
Margaret Swerdloff '17
Florida State University Florida State University Florida State 7 4 11 Travis White '16
Travis White '16
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 5 8 13 Dean Nixon '16
Devin Hansen '16
University of Florida University of Florida Gators 8 7 15 Daniel Davy '17
Angela Skane '16
Rollins College Rollins College Tars 9 9 18 Bernardo Pineda '16
Alexis Ryan '16
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2012 (31 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons11
Embry-Riddle UniversityEmbry-Riddle University Eagles22
University of FloridaUniversity of Florida Gators33
Florida State UniversityFlorida State University Florida State44
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Dolphins55
University of MiamiUniversity of Miami Hurricanes66
New College of FloridaNew College of Florida New College77
Rollins CollegeRollins College Tars88

Division B

Team1B2B
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons22
Embry-Riddle UniversityEmbry-Riddle University Eagles33
University of FloridaUniversity of Florida Gators44
Florida State UniversityFlorida State University Florida State55
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Dolphins66
University of MiamiUniversity of Miami Hurricanes77
New College of FloridaNew College of Florida New College88
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls11

Conditions — 09/21/2013 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 61%  ·  Pressure 1011.0 hPa

Temperature

82°F
↑ 86°F   ↓ 71°F
Feels like 89°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
1.6 kn
avg  ·  max 3.3 kn
Gusts to 10.9 kn
From ESE (120°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover53% Sunshine10.7 hrs Humidity61% Pressure1011.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 4 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Rollins: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.06
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.31 ± 0.29)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Rollins by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (20 labelled days at Rollins).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →