SAISA South Points #2

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 7 10 17
2 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Dolphins 20 22 42
3 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls Women 22 26 48
4 New College of Florida New College of Florida Nulls 27 25 52
5 Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Eagles 49 28 77
6 Rollins College Rollins College Tars 35 43 78
7 Florida State University Florida State University Florida State 36 42 78
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 7 Geoffrey Nelson '18
Amanda Smith '15
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Dolphins 2 5 2 3 2 3 3 20 Peter Hidley '17
Kelsy Waack '18
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls Women 3 3 3 4 5 2 2 22 Sara Simon '15
Tiffany Nicholson '17
New College of Florida New College of Florida Nulls 4 2 5 2 3 5 6 27 Sophia Schultz '17
James Montgomery '17
Rollins College Rollins College Tars 5 4 6 5 4 6 5 35 Nelson Millett '18
Hannah Friedle '18
Florida State University Florida State University Florida State 6 6 4 6 6 4 4 36 Curtis Woodworth '17
Beatriz Dunoyer De Segonzac '18
Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Eagles 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 49 Trevor Johnson '16
William Layne '16
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 1 3 1 1 1 1 2 10 Samuel Normington '18
Aliki Fornier '17
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Dolphins 4 4 3 4 3 3 1 22 Benjamin Tino '16
Alexandria Gagne '18
New College of Florida New College of Florida Nulls 2 1 6 5 2 6 3 25 Cornell Lee '16 [1-6]
Margaret Swerdloff '17 [7]
Francisco Perez '17 [1-6]
Jerry Stoops '18 [7]
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls Women 7 2 2 3 4 2 6 26 Delaney Caron '18
Isabella Uribe '18
Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Eagles 3 5 4 2 5 4 5 28 Joseph Geller '16
Ryan Clarke '16
Florida State University Florida State University Florida State 5 6 7 7 6 7 4 42 Rafael Melendez '17
Jaimeson Steffens '18
Rollins College Rollins College Tars 6 7 5 6 7 5 7 43 Chance Sweat '16 [1-4]
Emily Pasco-Anderson '17 [5-7]
Cayla Jordan '18 [1-4]
John Larson '19 [5-7]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2012 (31 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons1133557
Embry-Riddle UniversityEmbry-Riddle University Eagles2288664
Florida State UniversityFlorida State University Florida State3355771
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Dolphins4422886
New College of FloridaNew College of Florida Nulls5577113
Rollins CollegeRollins College Tars6644228
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls Women7711335

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons2244668
Embry-Riddle UniversityEmbry-Riddle University Eagles1177553
Florida State UniversityFlorida State University Florida State4466882
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Dolphins3311775
New College of FloridaNew College of Florida Nulls6688224
Rollins CollegeRollins College Tars5533117
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls Women8822446

Conditions — 03/07/2015 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 75%  ·  Pressure 1026.8 hPa

Temperature

63°F
↑ 68°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 61°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.1 kn
avg  ·  max 10.2 kn
Gusts to 24.5 kn
From NNE (30°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover96% Sunshine3.7 hrs Humidity75% Pressure1026.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 11 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Rollins: a typical day (−0.02)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.05
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.18 ± 0.18)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Rollins by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (20 labelled days at Rollins).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →