| # | School | Sailor | TOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
University of South Florida | Christopher Stocke '15 | 25 |
| 2 |  |
College of Charleston | Enrique Arathoon '16 | 32 |
| 3 | |
College of Charleston | Charles Rees '16 | 38 |
| 4 | |
College of Charleston | Reed Baldridge '16 | 40 |
| 5 | |
College of Charleston | William Sands '15 | 43 |
| 6 | |
University of South Florida | Paul Perry '15 | 59 |
| 7 |  |
Embry-Riddle University | Joel Hurley '14 | 79 |
| 8 | |
Embry-Riddle University | Ryan Clarke '16 | 80 |
| 9 |  |
University of Miami | Kevin Schwarm '16 | 87 |
| 10 | |
University of South Florida | Richard Romer '15 | 98 |
| 11 | |
Embry-Riddle University | Trevor Johnson '16 | 116 |
| School | Sailor | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | R7 | R8 | R9 | R10 | R11 | TOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
University of South Florida | Christopher Stocke '15 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | BYE | 1 | 3 | 25 |
|
College of Charleston | Enrique Arathoon '16 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 32 |
|
College of Charleston | Charles Rees '16 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 38 |
|
College of Charleston | Reed Baldridge '16 | 3 | BKD | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 40 |
|
College of Charleston | William Sands '15 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 43 |
|
University of South Florida | Paul Perry '15 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 6 | RDG | 4 | RDG | 5 | 7 | 5 | 59 |
|
Embry-Riddle University | Joel Hurley '14 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 79 |
|
Embry-Riddle University | Ryan Clarke '16 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 9 | BYE | 80 |
|
University of Miami | Kevin Schwarm '16 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 9 | BKD | 7 | 9 | 7 | BYE | 9 | 87 |
|
University of South Florida | Richard Romer '15 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 98 |
|
Embry-Riddle University | Trevor Johnson '16 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 116 |
Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.
Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.
The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.
| Fin | Skipper | School | Races | Rating before |
Perf. rating |
Δ | Percentile before → perf. |
Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
Avg finish actual / exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Enrique Arathoon '16 | College of Charleston Cougars 4 | 11/11 | 2.96 | 3.41 | +0.45 | 81st → 89th | 0.6 | 20% | 2.9 / 4.1 |
| 2 | Christopher Stocke '15 | University of South Florida Bulls 1 | 11/11 | 3.08 | 4.19 | +1.11 | 83rd → 97th | 2.9 | 25% | 3.2 / 4.0 |
| 3 | Charles Rees '16 | College of Charleston Cougars 3 | 11/11 | 2.92 | 3.10 | +0.19 | 79th → 84th | 0.1 | 33% | 3.5 / 4.2 |
| 4 | William Sands '15 | College of Charleston Cougars 1 | 11/11 | 2.72 | 2.55 | −0.17 | 72nd → 67th | 0.1 | 39% | 3.9 / 4.4 |
| 5 | Reed Baldridge '16 | College of Charleston Cougars 2 | 11/11 | 2.54 | 3.10 | +0.57 | 66th → 84th | 0.9 | 43% | 4.4 / 4.7 |
| 6 | Paul Perry '15 | University of South Florida Bulls 2 | 11/11 | 2.03 | 2.04 | +0.01 | 53rd → 53rd | 0.0 | 79% | 6.6 / 5.5 |
| 7 | Joel Hurley '14 | Embry-Riddle University Eagles 2 | 11/11 | 0.92 | 0.88 | −0.04 | 21st → 21st | 0.0 | 51% | 7.2 / 7.1 |
| 8 | Ryan Clarke '16 | Embry-Riddle University Eagles 3 | 11/11 | 0.06 | 1.23 | +1.17 | 6th → 29th | 3.9 | 35% | 7.7 / 8.2 |
| 9 | Kevin Schwarm '16 | University of Miami | 11/11 | 0.10 | 0.69 | +0.60 | 7th → 17th | 1.0 | 62% | 8.6 / 8.2 |
| 10 | Richard Romer '15 | University of South Florida Bulls 3 | 11/11 | 1.13 | -0.14 | −1.26 | 25th → 4th | 6.5 | 94% | 8.9 / 6.7 |
| 11 | Trevor Johnson '16 | Embry-Riddle University Eagles 1 | 11/11 | -0.52 | — | — | 2nd → — | 11.8 | 97% | 10.5 / 8.9 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
