Laser Elimination

HostNavy
Date09/24/2016
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatLaser
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Christopher Newport University	Austin Powers '17	54
2	University of Virginia	Colin Suvak '19	62
3	University of Pennsylvania	Keen Butcher '18	66
4	George Washington University	Adam Didomizio '19	67
5	Christopher Newport University	Vir Menon '20	69
6	Old Dominion University	Alec Chicoine '18	81
7	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Michael Munger '20	90
8	U. S. Naval Academy	Spencer Nora '17	107
9	Queen's University	Scott Gittens '20	119
10	U. S. Naval Academy	Tyler Fleig '19	129
11	Old Dominion University	Gray Kiger '20	144
12	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Devin Keister '18	147
13	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Philip Davis '20	154
14	Old Dominion University	George White '20	164
15	George Washington University	Marshall Mccraw '20	168
16	University of Maryland	Cole Daitch '20	186
17	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Ian Beckley '20	200
18	Old Dominion University	Brendon Wilkins '18	205

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	TOT
Christopher Newport University	Austin Powers '17	6	9	2	5	1	4	1	1	3	9	8	4	1	54
University of Virginia	Colin Suvak '19	1	7	7	2	7	7	5	2	1	3	13	2	5	62
University of Pennsylvania	Keen Butcher '18	4	2	8	1	4	2	7	6	4	10	1	11	6	66
George Washington University	Adam Didomizio '19	2	10	6	4	5	6	4	5	5	4	7	7	2	67
Christopher Newport University	Vir Menon '20	3	6	1	7	2	5	BKD	12	2	2	2	9	13	69
Old Dominion University	Alec Chicoine '18	5	4	4	8	8	12	8	3	6	1	11	1	10	81
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Michael Munger '20	11	1	5	9	9	3	3	4	12	8	10	12	3	90
U. S. Naval Academy	Spencer Nora '17	15	5	13	6	6	8	11	11	7	11	4	3	7	107
Queen's University	Scott Gittens '20	9	13	14	18	3	1	2	9	13	15	6	8	8	119
U. S. Naval Academy	Tyler Fleig '19	7	3	3	3	15	10	13	10	8	14	16	18	9	129
Old Dominion University	Gray Kiger '20	8	14	10	10	13	18	18	16	11	5	12	5	4	144
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Devin Keister '18	10	12	9	12	16	15	12	8	9	13	3	10	18	147
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Philip Davis '20	13	8	BKD	11	10	13	6	13	14	17	9	14	14	154
Old Dominion University	George White '20	16	11	12	15	14	9	17	7	18	12	5	16	12	164
George Washington University	Marshall Mccraw '20	14	15	15	13	12	16	16	14	10	7	14	6	16	168
University of Maryland	Cole Daitch '20	17	18	17	16	11	14	9	18	15	6	17	13	15	186
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Ian Beckley '20	18	16	16	14	17	11	14	17	17	16	18	15	11	200
Old Dominion University	Brendon Wilkins '18	12	17	11	17	18	17	15	15	16	18	15	17	17	205

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A 18 boats · 13 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Austin Powers '17	Christopher Newport University Captains 1	13/13	2.25	3.82	+1.57	59th → 94th	8.8	1%	4.2 / 8.7
2	Colin Suvak '19	University of Virginia	13/13	2.22	3.52	+1.30	58th → 91st	6.4	2%	4.8 / 8.9
3	Keen Butcher '18	University of Pennsylvania	13/13	2.14	3.41	+1.27	56th → 89th	6.2	3%	5.1 / 9.1
4	Adam Didomizio '19	George Washington University Colonials 1	13/13	2.03	3.50	+1.47	53rd → 90th	8.1	2%	5.2 / 9.4
5	Alec Chicoine '18	Old Dominion University Monarchs 1	13/13	2.34	3.03	+0.69	60th → 83rd	2.1	15%	6.2 / 8.5
6	Vir Menon '20	Christopher Newport University Captains 2	13/13	2.66	3.22	+0.56	71st → 85th	1.2	30%	6.4 / 7.6
7	Michael Munger '20	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1	13/13	2.38	2.81	+0.44	61st → 76th	0.9	27%	6.9 / 8.4
8	Spencer Nora '17	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	13/13	1.51	2.51	+1.00	38th → 64th	4.2	19%	8.2 / 10.8
9	Scott Gittens '20	Queen's University	13/13	1.98	1.93	−0.05	51st → 49th	0.0	47%	9.2 / 9.5
10	Tyler Fleig '19	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	13/13	1.80	1.80	+0.00	44th → 44th	0.0	49%	9.9 / 10.0
11	Gray Kiger '20	Old Dominion University Monarchs 2	13/13	2.35	1.42	−0.93	60th → 34th	4.6	83%	11.1 / 8.6
12	Devin Keister '18	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	13/13	1.55	1.65	+0.10	39th → 41st	0.0	61%	11.3 / 10.7
13	Philip Davis '20	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3	13/13	1.81	1.69	−0.12	44th → 42nd	0.1	81%	12.4 / 9.9
14	George White '20	Old Dominion University Monarchs 4	13/13	1.85	1.32	−0.53	46th → 31st	1.6	84%	12.6 / 9.9
15	Marshall Mccraw '20	George Washington University Colonials 2	13/13	1.89	1.44	−0.44	47th → 35th	1.1	88%	12.9 / 9.8
16	Cole Daitch '20	University of Maryland	13/13	1.81	0.68	−1.14	44th → 17th	6.8	95%	14.3 / 9.9
17	Ian Beckley '20	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2	13/13	1.83	0.61	−1.21	45th → 16th	8.6	>99%	15.4 / 9.9
18	Brendon Wilkins '18	Old Dominion University Monarchs 3	13/13	1.19	0.63	−0.55	28th → 17th	1.6	96%	15.8 / 11.6

Conditions — 09/24/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 77% · Pressure 1018.7 hPa

Temperature

71°F

↑ 72°F ↓ 69°F

Feels like 71°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

8.2 kn

avg · max 10.4 kn

Gusts to 21.4 kn

From NE (39°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover77% Sunshine8.0 hrs Humidity77% Pressure1018.7 hPa

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: a typical day (−0.02)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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