Navigate

Laser North

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Charles Carraway '22 1 3 1 1 1 8 8 6 29
Queen's University Queen's University Noah Collinson '22 2 5 2 10 8 1 1 2 31
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy David Pearce '23 5 2 7 3 4 2 3 7 33
Queen's University Queen's University William Bruce '21 8 6 6 2 2 4 4 4 36
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Jake Vickers '22 7 1 3 9 6 3 6 5 40
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Carrson Pearce '21 4 4 4 8 7 11 2 1 41
Queen's University Queen's University Robert Juhasz '21 3 12 5 5 5 5 7 3 45
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Luke Welker '21 6 7 8 4 9 6 9 10 59
Cornell University Cornell University Ben Rizika '23 18 9 16 11 3 7 5 8 77
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Duke Cowart '23 11 11 9 6 14 10 11 13 85
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Collin Porter '23 12 8 12 13 11 9 12 9 86
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Thomas Green '23 9 14 13 7 16 14 10 11 94
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Cormac Murphy '23 10 15 14 14 10 12 14 12 101
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Samuel Parsons '21 14 10 11 15 15 16 16 16 113
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Christian Neuman '21 13 19 15 12 13 13 15 14 114
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College William Sesack '21 16 13 10 19 12 15 13 17 115
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Finn Rauch '23 15 17 19 17 17 18 19 15 137
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Aidan Molesky '20 17 18 17 16 18 17 17 19 139
Cornell University Cornell University Max Charlamb '22 19 16 18 18 19 19 18 18 145

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  19 boats · 8 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Charles Carraway '22Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 18/83.334.09+0.7688th → 95th1.410%3.6 / 6.1
2Noah Collinson '22Queen's University Gaels 38/81.31u4.03+2.7230th → 95th13.4<1%3.9 / 11.5
3David Pearce '23U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 48/82.553.99+1.4467th → 95th4.74%4.1 / 8.1
4William Bruce '21Queen's University Gaels 18/82.163.84+1.6856th → 94th6.25%4.5 / 9.2
5Jake Vickers '22Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 48/82.903.57+0.6878th → 92nd1.217%5.0 / 7.3
6Carrson Pearce '21U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 18/83.343.39+0.0588th → 89th0.036%5.1 / 6.0
7Robert Juhasz '21Queen's University Gaels 28/81.69u3.35+1.6642nd → 89th6.15%5.6 / 10.5
8Luke Welker '21U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 28/82.432.86+0.4362nd → 78th0.536%7.4 / 8.4
9Ben Rizika '23Cornell University Big Red 18/81.711.77+0.0642nd → 43rd0.040%9.6 / 10.5
10Duke Cowart '23Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 28/81.931.99+0.0649th → 51st0.062%10.6 / 9.9
11Collin Porter '23Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 38/82.381.95−0.4261st → 50th0.683%10.8 / 8.5
12Thomas Green '23U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 58/82.061.63−0.4353rd → 40th0.779%11.8 / 9.5
13Cormac Murphy '23SUNY Maritime College Privateers 48/81.661.55−0.1141st → 39th0.076%12.6 / 10.6
14Samuel Parsons '21U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 38/80.361.17+0.8111th → 27th1.852%14.1 / 13.8
15Christian Neuman '21SUNY Maritime College Privateers 38/81.400.94−0.4734th → 21st0.784%14.2 / 11.3
16William Sesack '21SUNY Maritime College Privateers 28/81.040.78−0.2624th → 18th0.277%14.4 / 12.2
17Finn Rauch '23SUNY Maritime College Privateers 58/80.77-0.06−0.8218th → 5th2.095%17.1 / 12.8
18Aidan Molesky '20SUNY Maritime College Privateers 18/81.42-0.02−1.4434th → 6th8.099%17.4 / 11.2
19Max Charlamb '22Cornell University Big Red 28/80.94u-0.63−1.5721st → 2nd7.299%18.1 / 12.5

Conditions — 09/07/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 57%  ·  Pressure 1009.3 hPa

Temperature

70°F
↑ 75°F   ↓ 60°F
Feels like 67°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.8 kn
avg  ·  max 10.7 kn
Gusts to 21.8 kn
From NW (315°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover36% Sunshine10.3 hrs Humidity57% Pressure1009.3 hPa

What this breeze does at Kings Point — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Kings Point in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Kings Point by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (80 labelled fleet-race days at Kings Point).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →