UCSB Parents' Weekend

Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2011 (20 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 11111
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 22222
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 34444
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 45555
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 56666
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 69999
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 710101010
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 811111111
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 912121212

Conditions — 05/11/2019 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 67%  ·  Pressure 1013.3 hPa

Temperature

68°F
↑ 70°F   ↓ 63°F
Feels like 70°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.2 kn
avg  ·  max 5.1 kn
Gusts to 18.5 kn
From SSW (204°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover28% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity67% Pressure1013.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at UC Santa Barbara: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.07 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.02
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.38 ± 0.37)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at UC Santa Barbara by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (46 labelled days at UC Santa Barbara).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →