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2017 Women's PCC's

SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos A 1 1 3 3 6 6 1 1 2 10 5 3 42 Simone Staff '18
Samantha Obel '21
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans A 3 4 8 4 1 1 5 4 9 4 1 9 53 Grace Yakutis '20
Melissa Schem '18
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal A 2 2 7 11 4 11 2 3 1 11 3 6 63 Maria El-Khazindar '19
Madeline Bubb '20
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang A 8 5 11 2 10 2 7 12 5 3 13 1 79 Alyson Crowley '20
Grace Carrick '18
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows A 10 6 1 1 7 4 3 13 3 5 10 17 80 Caitlin Schadt '18
Gianna Bailey '18
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos B 12 3 13 8 3 8 12 9 8 2 8 5 91 Julia Downey '20
Marina Fennell '17
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans B 6 8 2 7 8 14 8 10 7 8 12 7 97 Sarah Alexander '19
Hope Modugno '18
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins A 4 11 6 14 17 9 9 7 10 1 4 8 100 Laura Roudebush '18
Maddy Kuhn '20
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal B 7 12 10 9 2 5 4 8 12 16 2 14 101 Christina Sakellaris '21
Meg Gerli '19
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears B 13 7 5 13 14 3 13 2 6 12 11 4 103 Josefina Ruggieri '21 [1-8]
Ciara Dorsay '21 [9-12]
Megan Grosspietsch '20 [1-8]
Ekaterina Goncharova '18 [9-12]
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows B 9 10 4 10 13 12 10 17 13 9 7 2 116 Annika Garrett '19 [1-12]
Megan Zamzow '19 [1-2, 7-12]
Danielle Ahir '20 [3-6]
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins B 16 9 18 6 9 16 14 6 14 6 6 12 132 Leah Ford '19
Hallie Muller '20
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang B 14 13 14 12 12 15 16 5 4 7 14 10 136 Josselyn Verutti '21
Maddie Roman '20
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears A 5 14 12 5 15 10 11 16 11 14 16 15 144 Whitney Ziesing '19 [1-8]
Elizabeth Hansen '19 [9-12]
Katey Hayes '20 [1-8]
Sarah Paulsen '20 [9-12]
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's A 15 16 9 16 5 7 15 14 15 13 9 13 147 Alexis Miller '20
Gabrielle Lange '18
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons A 17 17 16 15 11 13 6 11 16 15 15 16 168 Natalie Hopper '19
Robyn Gillum '18
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons B 11 15 15 17 16 17 17 15 17 17 17 11 185 Molly Rowland '21
Marie-Laure Golier '21
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's B 18 18 17 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 215 Francine Brownell '19
Nina-Katreen Hipkins '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears334455667788
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang112233445566
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows88991010111112121313
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans9910101111121213131414
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal223344556677
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins445566778899
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons55667788991010
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos6677889910101111
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's778899101011111212

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears121213131414151516161717
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang101011111212131314141515
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows1717181811223344
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans18181122334455
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal111112121313141415151616
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins131314141515161617171818
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons1414151516161717181811
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos15151616171718181122
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's161617171818112233

Conditions — 10/28/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 57%  ·  Pressure 1012.9 hPa

Temperature

70°F
↑ 79°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 70°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.2 kn
avg  ·  max 4.9 kn
Gusts to 14.2 kn
From N (2°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover3% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity57% Pressure1012.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 7 kn · NW 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Stanford: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.11)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.00 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.11
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.16 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 10% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stanford by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (48 labelled days at Stanford).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →