University of California at Santa Barbara
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.47 | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 16–11 (59%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 3 | 16–11 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (27 matches) the record is 16–11 against 9.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+6.1). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 12 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-05-28 | LaserPerformance Team Race Nationals | skipper | 1.74 | 2.77 | 5–8 | 3.9 | +1.03 | 0.8 | 26% |
| 2016-04-24 | PCCSC Team Race Championship Carter Ford Trophy | skipper | 1.59 | 4.36 | 4–1 | 2.8 | +2.77 | 2.0 | 19% |
| 2016-02-27 | 2016 Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 0.51 | 4.10 | 7–2 | 3.2 | +3.59 | 9.3 | <1% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| New Dock Party Regatta | Crew | A | 11 | 10.4 | — |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Peter Wenner Rainbow Invite | Skipper | B | 4 | 6.5 | 2.12 |
| PCCSC Team Race Championship Carter Ford Trophy | Skipper | TR | 5 | 80% | — |
| LaserPerformance Team Race Nationals | Skipper | TR | 15 | 40% | — |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinal | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.4 | 3.27 |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 11.9 | 0.92 |
| 2016 Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 78% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| UCSD Frosh-Soph | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.6 | 2.41 |
| Stoney Burke JV | Skipper | B | 8 | 1.8 | 3.81 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship JV | Skipper | A | 4 | 1.5 | 3.81 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
