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New Dock Party Regatta

SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 TOT Sailors
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 11 1 1 2 1 1 9 1 1 1 1 1 20 Christopher Weis '18
Samantha Obel '21
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 9 2 2 1 5 2 2 2 5 2 2 2 27 Neil Stapleton '18
Claire Hunt '19
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 4 8 9 3 4 4 3 2 7 6 5 55 Cameron Baxter '19
Mckenna Thomas '20
49ers 2 49ers 2 49ers 2 5 7 3 6 3 13 5 14 3 3 6 68
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 11 18 5 4 5 7 6 4 9 11 7 87 Kerri Luttrell '21
Olivia Beers '21
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 6 3 4 11 8 8 9 6 11 7 DNF 94 Laura Roudebush '18
Maddy Kuhn '20
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 10 7 14 7 14 9 11 4 10 8 5 9 98 Marina Fennell '17
Margaret Adams '20
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 8 11 10 13 6 1 18 8 16 8 3 102 Dylan Finestone '19
Bailey Clark '19
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 4 14 16 8 10 11 3 10 3 6 20 10 111
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 7 16 10 18 2 7 14 13 9 12 9 4 114 Sean Jawetz '20
No Show
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 2 3 4 17 9 20 12 16 20 4 4 15 124 Josselyn Verutti '21
Belle Lemoine '19
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 4 15 15 15 8 10 19 12 7 14 10 8 133 George Kripac '21
Olivia Montiano '18
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 6 9 5 11 16 15 18 11 12 10 16 13 136 Jack Holbrook '21
Shannie Kuo '18
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1 13 13 14 18 19 10 15 11 5 13 11 142 Joseph Lausten '18
Dallas Butler '17
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 12 6 13 12 12 5 17 17 20 18 18 150 Leah Ford '19
Hallie Muller '20
49ers 1 49ers 1 49ers 1 DNF 12 12 15 14 6 8 15 18 14 17 152
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 5 10 17 6 7 13 17 14 18 19 19 19 159 Margot Mason '21
Aine Roonan '21
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 3 18 9 19 19 16 15 7 13 15 17 16 164 Shea Walker '20
Hannah Chookaszian '21
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3 17 20 20 17 18 16 19 16 13 15 12 183 Arjun Boddu '18 [1-11]
Kristopher Wong '18 [1-6]
Georgia Potter '18 [7-11]
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 8 19 19 16 20 17 20 20 19 17 12 14 193 Noah Rockwood '20
Pyper Atkin '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2011 (20 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 3103103103103103103103103103103103
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 477777777777
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 12727272727272727272727
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 22828282828282828282828
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3128128128128128128128128128128128
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 111111111111
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 101111111111111111111111
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 111212121212121212121212
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 222222222222
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 333333333333
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 444444444444
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 566666666666
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 655555555555
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 788888888888
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 899999999999
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 91010101010101010101010

Conditions — 10/14/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 21%  ·  Pressure 1015.4 hPa

Temperature

78°F
↑ 82°F   ↓ 62°F
Feels like 74°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.4 kn
avg  ·  max 4.4 kn
Gusts to 14.6 kn
From WSW (258°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover12% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity21% Pressure1015.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 7 kn · SW 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at UC Santa Barbara: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment −0.02 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.01
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.25 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at UC Santa Barbara by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (46 labelled days at UC Santa Barbara).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →