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Fall Pacific Coast Championship JV

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 6 4 10
2 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 6 9 15
3 Vikes 2 Vikes 2 Vikes 2 20 12 32
4 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 2 18 26 44
5 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 25 25 50
6 California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Otters 19 52 71
7 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 57 16 73
8 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 1 40 43 83
9 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3 46 40 86
10 Vikes 1 Vikes 1 Vikes 1 54 33 87
11 University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 49 50 99
12 Vikings Vikings Vikings 51 56 107
13 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 3 64 50 114
14 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 72 57 129
15 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1 63 68 131
16 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 2 72 72 144
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 1 1 2 2 6 No Show
Lauren Rudnick '19
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 2 2 1 1 6 Cooper Weitz '19
Sarah Scoffone '19
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 2 5 7 3 3 18
California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Otters 4 3 7 5 19 Olivia Gibbons '17
Brian Bischoff '18
Vikes 2 Vikes 2 Vikes 2 6 4 6 4 20
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 8 5 5 7 25 Thomas Garcia '19
Susan Bean '18
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 1 DNS 6 8 8 40 Casey Bowers-Loeffler '19
Adriana Guetter '19
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3 DNS DNF 4 6 46 Alexander Daniele '18
Rui Li '19
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies DNS 11 10 10 49 Joseph Naro '18
Ken Zheng '18
Vikings Vikings Vikings 7 8 DNS DNS 51
Vikes 1 Vikes 1 Vikes 1 DNS DNF 9 9 54
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 3 DNF DNS DNS 57 Aaron Kiyotoki '19
Natalie Millstein '18
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1 DNS 9 DNS DNS 63 Belle Lemoine '19
Helen Payne '19
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 3 DNS 10 DNS DNS 64 No Show
Lauren Riddle '19
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 DNS DNF DNS DNS 72 Sarah Macpherson '18
Zoe Hessler '18
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 2 DNS DNF DNS DNS 72 David Luu '17
Lauren Liu '17
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 1 1 1 1 4 Will Dana '19
Bailey Clark '19
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 3 2 2 2 9 Kevin Leddy '17 [1-2]
Remy Margerum '17 [3-4]
Robert Johnson '19 [1-2]
Noah Congdon '19 [3-4]
Vikes 2 Vikes 2 Vikes 2 2 4 3 3 12
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 5 3 4 4 16 Emily Quirke '19
Lisa Luciano '18
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 6 5 8 6 25 Ben Gerber '19
No Show
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 2 4 7 10 5 26
Vikes 1 Vikes 1 Vikes 1 12 8 5 8 33
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3 13 12 6 9 40 Marina Lindsay '17
Anne Kleinaitis '19
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 1 9 9 7 DNS 43 Grant Lin '17
Warren Ko '19
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 3 8 6 DNS DNF 50 Christopher Steefel '18
No Show
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 11 10 11 DNS 50 Michelle Moua '17
Grace Moore '18
California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Otters DNF DNS 9 7 52 Levi Matsushima '17 [1-4]
Kelsey Trammell '17 [1-2]
Liam Morris '19 [3-4]
Vikings Vikings Vikings 7 13 DNS DNS 56
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 10 11 DNS DNS 57 Cullen Quine '18
Marianne Simpson '19
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1 DNS 14 DNS DNS 68 Benjamin Blumenberg '18 [1-4]
Rachel Hunter '19 [1-2]
Thomas Niemisto '17 [3-4]
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 2 DNS DNS DNS DNS 72 Jason Barr '17
Chase Verstuyft '17
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2011 (20 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 11111
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 2103103103103
VikingsVikings Vikings10101010
California State University Monterey BayCalifornia State University Monterey Bay Otters11111111
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans38383838
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies48484848
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1271271271271
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2281281281281
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3282282282282
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 1129129129129
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 2291291291291
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 3301301301301
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 17777
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 28888
Vikes 1Vikes 1 Vikes 188888888
Vikes 2Vikes 2 Vikes 289898989

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 11111
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 2103103103103
VikingsVikings Vikings10101010
California State University Monterey BayCalifornia State University Monterey Bay Otters11111111
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans38383838
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies48484848
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1271271271271
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2281281281281
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3282282282282
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 1129129129129
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 2291291291291
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 3301301301301
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 17777
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 28888
Vikes 1Vikes 1 Vikes 188888888
Vikes 2Vikes 2 Vikes 289898989
School / Team SkipperCrew
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Belle Lemoine '19 Helen Payne '19
Mustang 1 Benjamin Blumenberg '18 [1-4] Rachel Hunter '19 [1-2]
Thomas Niemisto '17 [3-4]
California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Olivia Gibbons '17 Brian Bischoff '18
Otters Levi Matsushima '17 [1-4] Kelsey Trammell '17 [1-2]
Liam Morris '19 [3-4]
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Joseph Naro '18 Ken Zheng '18
Aggies Michelle Moua '17 Grace Moore '18
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Thomas Garcia '19 Susan Bean '18
Bruins 1 Ben Gerber '19 No Show
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Sarah Macpherson '18 Zoe Hessler '18
Bruins 2 Cullen Quine '18 Marianne Simpson '19
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Alexander Daniele '18 Rui Li '19
Bruins 3 Marina Lindsay '17 Anne Kleinaitis '19
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Casey Bowers-Loeffler '19 Adriana Guetter '19
Tritons 1 Grant Lin '17 Warren Ko '19
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego David Luu '17 Lauren Liu '17
Tritons 2 Jason Barr '17 Chase Verstuyft '17
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego No Show Lauren Riddle '19
Tritons 3 Christopher Steefel '18 No Show
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Cooper Weitz '19 Sarah Scoffone '19
Gauchos 1 Will Dana '19 Bailey Clark '19
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara No Show Lauren Rudnick '19
Gauchos 2 Kevin Leddy '17 [1-2]
Remy Margerum '17 [3-4]		 Robert Johnson '19 [1-2]
Noah Congdon '19 [3-4]
University of Southern California University of Southern California Aaron Kiyotoki '19 Natalie Millstein '18
Trojans Emily Quirke '19 Lisa Luciano '18

Conditions — 11/14/2015 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 31%  ·  Pressure 1013.3 hPa

Temperature

68°F
↑ 74°F   ↓ 54°F
Feels like 63°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.8 kn
avg  ·  max 5.3 kn
Gusts to 13.4 kn
From SSE (167°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity31% Pressure1013.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 8 kn · NW 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at UC Santa Barbara: a favourites’ day (+0.04)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.14 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.17
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.52 ± 0.24)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at UC Santa Barbara by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (46 labelled days at UC Santa Barbara).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →