SAISA South Points #3

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 1 18 31 49
2 Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 1 28 26 54
3 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 3 16 46 62
4 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 2 40 39 79
5 Florida State University Florida State University Seminoles 40 50 90
6 University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 66 28 94
7 Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 2 66 51 117
8 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 68 57 125
9 Rollins College Rollins College Tars 63 77 140
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 3 2 3 2 3 1 1 2 1 1 16 Paula Resto '20
Madison Reynolds '21
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 1 1 1 1 1 3 3 1 5 2 18 Telmo Basterra '21 [1-4]
Chase Burwell '21 [5-9]
Shaynah True '19 [1-4]
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 1 5 2 3 2 2 4 3 4 3 28 Ian Willoughby '21
Darcy Curwen '21
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 2 3 4 5 5 5 2 4 3 9 40 Scott Hansen '21
Nathan Ikeda '21
Florida State University Florida State University Seminoles 4 5 4 4 6 5 5 2 5 40 Kurban Ali '21
Zoey Holden '20
Rollins College Rollins College Tars 6 7 7 9 9 7 8 6 4 63 Nick Baker '20
Ryan O'Donnell '20
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 2 7 9 6 6 7 6 9 9 7 66 Ainsley Parramore '20
Virginia Kilbourne '20
University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 8 6 8 7 8 8 7 8 6 66 Joseph Ricca '21 [1-9]
Alex Sidi '21 [1-4, 7-9]
Jacob Dannin '18 [5-6]
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 9 8 9 8 4 9 6 7 8 68 Kyle Runnfeldt '20
Michelle Burklund '19
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 1 1 3 2 1 3 2 5 1 8 26 Connor Ratcliff '21
Carla Szeplaki '20
University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 6 4 1 4 2 6 1 2 2 28 Andrew Scotti '20
Ariel Casaretto '21
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 1 2 2 3 2 5 1 8 7 1 31 Samuel Baker '22 [1-4]
David Perez '21 [5-9]
Gigi Arias '21 [1-4]
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 2 5 5 4 6 4 5 3 4 3 39 Ian Hunter '21
Rachel Custer '21
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 3 3 1 5 3 6 7 7 8 6 46 Kelsy Waack '18
Jessica Schwartz '18
Florida State University Florida State University Seminoles 4 6 6 7 7 4 6 6 4 50 Hannah Sellers '19
Javier Roque '18
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 2 8 7 8 8 1 3 2 5 9 51 Margaret Maccormack '21
Tatiana Chinitz '19
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 7 8 7 5 9 9 4 3 5 57 Charlotte Samson '19
Shani Scwartz '19
Rollins College Rollins College Tars 9 9 9 9 8 8 9 9 7 77 Samantha Capozzi '21 [1-9]
Rose Nadler '18 [1-4]
Oliver Santry '19 [5-9]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.130+0.13
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (7 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons 111335510109
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons 222446611111
Florida State UniversityFlorida State University Seminoles33551010992
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins 144661111113
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins 255101099224
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins 366111111335
University of MiamiUniversity of Miami Hurricanes111111335510
Rollins CollegeRollins College Tars10109922446
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls9922446611

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons 1141416161818202013
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons 2151517171919212114
Florida State UniversityFlorida State University Seminoles161618182020131315
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins 1171719192121141416
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins 2181820201313151517
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins 3191921211414161618
University of MiamiUniversity of Miami Hurricanes212114141616181820
Rollins CollegeRollins College Tars202013131515171719
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls131315151717191921

Conditions — 03/10/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 52%  ·  Pressure 1018.9 hPa

Temperature

62°F
↑ 70°F   ↓ 47°F
Feels like 59°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.8 kn
avg  ·  max 6.5 kn
Gusts to 13.8 kn
From SSW (193°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover88% Sunshine8.5 hrs Humidity52% Pressure1018.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Jacksonville: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.10)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.02 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.08
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.06 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Jacksonville by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (22 labelled days at Jacksonville).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →