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SAISA South Points #3

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 1 19 18 37
2 Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 1 27 39 66
3 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 45 33 78
4 University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 48 39 87
5 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 3 57 37 94
6 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 2 52 42 94
7 Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 2 32 63 95
8 Florida State University Florida State University Seminoles 49 52 101
9 University of Florida University of Florida Gators 48 53 101
10 Rollins College Rollins College Tars 64 76 140
11 University of North Florida University of North Florida Ospreys 88 80 168
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 1 1 1 1 6 2 1 1 6 19 Samuel Baker '22
Sara Flowerday '22
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 1 3 2 5 4 3 2 4 4 27 Ian Willoughby '21
Carla Szeplaki '20
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 2 8 10 2 3 1 4 2 2 32 Sean Tallman '22 [1-8]
Virginia Kilbourne '20 [1-6]
Liam Farese '22 [7-8]
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 2 9 4 7 5 8 3 7 45 Kelly Stukbauer '19
Virginia Ware '20
University of Florida University of Florida Gators 6 5 6 5 8 10 7 1 48 Zachary Boogaart '20 [1-2]
David Beaudry '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Anderson Brunsvold '20 [5-6]
Juliana Cromie '20 [1-2]
University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 7 6 3 11 6 3 9 3 48 Andrew Scotti '20
Alex Sidi '21
Florida State University Florida State University Seminoles 4 3 7 9 4 9 5 8 49 Trevor Stone '20
Jordan Hayes '22
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 2 10 8 8 2 7 6 6 5 52 Molly Doyle '22
Madison Reynolds '21
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 3 5 7 9 1 10 7 8 10 57 Scott Hansen '21 [1-4]
Ben Mckissick-Hawley '20 [5-8]
Charles Breath '22 [1-4]
Caroline Bourgeois '22 [5-8]
Rollins College Rollins College Tars 9 4 10 8 9 5 10 9 64 Nick Baker '20
Simon Munoz '20
University of North Florida University of North Florida Ospreys DNF 11 11 10 11 11 11 11 88 Brendan Jarboe '20
Kurt Bopst '19
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 1 2 2 1 4 1 1 1 6 18 David Perez '21
Elisabeth Bowman '22
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 1 5 7 2 8 4 2 4 33 Brett Putnam '22
Cassandra Grinstead '22
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 3 5 7 5 5 6 2 5 2 37 Ian Hunter '21 [1-4]
Nathan Ikeda '21 [5-8]
Caleb Gill '21 [1-4]
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 1 4 6 2 6 3 DNS 3 3 39 Daniel Vail '21
Anna Wohnoutka '22
University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 7 4 6 8 2 5 6 1 39 Olivia Keefe '21
Megan Wurtz '22
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 2 3 8 4 7 4 3 8 5 42 Mia Porter '22
Elizabeth Johnson '22
Florida State University Florida State University Seminoles 6 3 8 1 5 8 11 10 52 Emma Marsden '22
Lauren Moran '20
University of Florida University of Florida Gators 8 1 3 9 9 DSQ 4 7 53 Anderson Brunsvold '20 [1-2]
George Hambleton '21 [3-4]
Matthew Snyder '22 [5-6]
Zachary Boogaart '20 [7-8]
Maya Kwasniewski '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Erik Volk '22 [3-4, 7-8]
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 2 9 9 9 3 7 9 9 8 63 Joshua Cole '22 [1-8]
Liam Farese '22 [1-4]
Elle Schoonveld '22 [5-6]
Virginia Kilbourne '20 [7-8]
Rollins College Rollins College Tars 10 10 10 10 11 6 10 9 76 Harrison Fang '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Robert Anderson '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Corinne Keogh '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Fernando Herrera '20 [3-4, 7-8]
University of North Florida University of North Florida Ospreys DNS 11 11 11 10 7 7 11 80 James Mclaughlin '21
Gabriel Pridham '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons 111223344
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons 222334455
University of FloridaUniversity of Florida Gators889910101111
Florida State UniversityFlorida State University Seminoles33445566
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins 144556677
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins 255667788
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins 366778899
University of MiamiUniversity of Miami Hurricanes991010111111
University of North FloridaUniversity of North Florida Ospreys101011111122
Rollins CollegeRollins College Tars7788991010
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls1111112233

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons 12424141415151616
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons 21414151516161717
University of FloridaUniversity of Florida Gators2020212122222323
Florida State UniversityFlorida State University Seminoles1515161617171818
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins 11616171718181919
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins 21717181819192020
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins 31818191920202121
University of MiamiUniversity of Miami Hurricanes2121222223232424
University of North FloridaUniversity of North Florida Ospreys2222232324241414
Rollins CollegeRollins College Tars1919202021212222
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls2323242414141515
School / Team SkipperCrew
Eckerd College Eckerd College Ian Willoughby '21 Carla Szeplaki '20
Tritons 1 Daniel Vail '21 Anna Wohnoutka '22
Eckerd College Eckerd College Sean Tallman '22 [1-8] Virginia Kilbourne '20 [1-6]
Liam Farese '22 [7-8]
Tritons 2 Joshua Cole '22 [1-8] Liam Farese '22 [1-4]
Elle Schoonveld '22 [5-6]
Virginia Kilbourne '20 [7-8]
Florida State University Florida State University Trevor Stone '20 Jordan Hayes '22
Seminoles Emma Marsden '22 Lauren Moran '20
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Samuel Baker '22 Sara Flowerday '22
Fins 1 David Perez '21 Elisabeth Bowman '22
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Molly Doyle '22 Madison Reynolds '21
Fins 2 Mia Porter '22 Elizabeth Johnson '22
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Scott Hansen '21 [1-4]
Ben Mckissick-Hawley '20 [5-8]		 Charles Breath '22 [1-4]
Caroline Bourgeois '22 [5-8]
Fins 3 Ian Hunter '21 [1-4]
Nathan Ikeda '21 [5-8]		 Caleb Gill '21 [1-4]
Rollins College Rollins College Nick Baker '20 Simon Munoz '20
Tars Harrison Fang '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Robert Anderson '21 [3-4, 7-8]		 Corinne Keogh '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Fernando Herrera '20 [3-4, 7-8]
University of Florida University of Florida Zachary Boogaart '20 [1-2]
David Beaudry '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Anderson Brunsvold '20 [5-6]		 Juliana Cromie '20 [1-2]
Gators Anderson Brunsvold '20 [1-2]
George Hambleton '21 [3-4]
Matthew Snyder '22 [5-6]
Zachary Boogaart '20 [7-8]		 Maya Kwasniewski '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Erik Volk '22 [3-4, 7-8]
University of Miami University of Miami Andrew Scotti '20 Alex Sidi '21
Hurricanes Olivia Keefe '21 Megan Wurtz '22
University of North Florida University of North Florida Brendan Jarboe '20 Kurt Bopst '19
Ospreys James Mclaughlin '21 Gabriel Pridham '19
University of South Florida University of South Florida Kelly Stukbauer '19 Virginia Ware '20
Bulls Brett Putnam '22 Cassandra Grinstead '22

Conditions — 09/29/2018 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 75%  ·  Pressure 1019.6 hPa

Temperature

84°F
↑ 88°F   ↓ 77°F
Feels like 93°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.2 kn
avg  ·  max 8.6 kn
Gusts to 15.6 kn
From E (95°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover54% Sunshine10.1 hrs Humidity75% Pressure1019.6 hPa Rain0.10 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Jacksonville: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.14)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.02 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.12
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.10 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.14 means a rating gap counts about 12% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Jacksonville by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (22 labelled days at Jacksonville).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →