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SAISA South Points #4

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 31 17 48
2 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 1 29 23 52
3 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 41 45 86
4 University of Florida University of Florida Gators 37 50 87
5 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 2 41 46 87
6 Florida State University Florida State University Seminoles 52 38 90
7 University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 51 48 99
8 Tars Tars Tars 41 61 102
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 1 3 2 3 2 6 7 3 1 2 29 Jack Gower '20
Rachel Custer '21
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 1 3 1 6 3 6 1 6 4 31 Ian Willoughby '21 [1-9]
Geoffrey St. John '19 [1-3, 7-9]
Samantha Pynchon '20 [4-6]
University of Florida University of Florida Gators 5 4 4 3 1 2 8 3 7 37 David Beaudry '20 [1-9]
Juliana Cromie '20 [1-3, 7-9]
Elizabeth Mayes '19 [4-6]
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 2 5 5 4 8 8 4 2 3 41 Hunter Sorensen '21
Darby Capellin '19
Tars Tars Tars 4 7 2 7 4 5 2 5 5 41
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 2 6 1 6 1 5 4 6 4 8 41 Chris Kiener '21
Caleb Gill '21
University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 7 6 7 BKD 7 3 7 7 1 51 Remi Hutchins '20
Nash Whitacre '20
Florida State University Florida State University Seminoles 8 8 8 5 2 1 5 DSQ 6 52 Jeffrey Hayden '20
Javier Roque '18
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 3 3 2 1 3 1 1 1 2 17 Connor Ratcliff '21
Sage Morgan '18
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 1 1 2 1 DSQ 1 2 2 2 3 23 Chase Burwell '21
Emily Gilreath '21
Florida State University Florida State University Seminoles 5 5 6 2 2 3 5 5 5 38 Mitchell Powell '20
Kurban Ali '21
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 7 4 4 4 8 7 3 7 1 45 Kyle Runnfeldt '20 [1-6]
Preston Senior '19 [7-9]
Sara Simon '15 [1-6]
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 2 4 6 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 46 Scott Hansen '21
Ben Mckissick-Hawley '20
University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 2 1 5 5 7 4 6 DNS DNS 48 Raymond Manngiaratti '18
Frank Lizza '21
University of Florida University of Florida Gators 8 7 3 3 5 6 DSQ 3 6 50 Maya Kwasniewski '19 [1-9]
George Laibl '18 [1-3]
Taylor Brunsvold '21 [4-9]
Tars Tars Tars 6 8 8 7 4 8 7 6 7 61
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2012 (15 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons111333555
University of FloridaUniversity of Florida Gators666888222
Florida State UniversityFlorida State University Seminoles222444666
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins 1333555777
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins 2444666888
University of MiamiUniversity of Miami Hurricanes777111333
TarsTars Tars555777111
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls888222444

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons222444666
University of FloridaUniversity of Florida Gators777111333
Florida State UniversityFlorida State University Seminoles333555777
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins 1444666888
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins 2555777111
University of MiamiUniversity of Miami Hurricanes888222444
TarsTars Tars666888222
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls111333555

Conditions — 09/30/2017 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 94%  ·  Pressure 1014.5 hPa

Temperature

76°F
↑ 77°F   ↓ 74°F
Feels like 83°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.8 kn
avg  ·  max 8.8 kn
Gusts to 18.3 kn
From NNE (22°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover98% Sunshine0.3 hrs Humidity94% Pressure1014.5 hPa Rain0.23 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Florida: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.14)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.00 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.13
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.86 ± 0.22)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.14 means a rating gap counts about 12% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Florida by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at Florida, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →