| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Tulane University | Green Wave | 6–0 |
| 2 |  |
Texas A&M University | Aggies | 0–6 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 30,294 team race matches sailed before 2026-04-02, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 6 of 6 matches (100%) with a log-loss of 0.003 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tulane University Green Wave | 1 | 8.87 school +0.08, home +0.34 | Oakley Cunningham / Hope Breslin 2.63 Lola Kohl / Martha Hughes 2.37 Ava Anderson / Catherine Anderson 3.43 | 100% | 6–0 (100%) | +0.0 |
| 2 | Texas A&M University Aggies | 2 | 3.17 school −0.09 | Kate Hennig / Elisabeth Ritenour 0.98 Sofia Pando / Menya Bird 1.07 Sydney Krahulik / Evelyn Dubois 1.18 | 0% | 0–6 (0%) | −0.0 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tulane University | 8.87 | 11.87 | 6–0 | 6.0 | ≥+3.00 | 0.0 | 98% |
| 2 | Texas A&M University | 3.17 | 0.17 | 0–6 | 0.0 | ≤−3.00 | 0.0 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakley Cunningham | Tulane University | 2.63 | 5.63 | 6–0 | 6.0 | ≥+3.00 | 0.0 | 98% |
| Lola Kohl | Tulane University | 2.37 | 5.37 | 6–0 | 6.0 | ≥+3.00 | 0.0 | 98% |
| Ava Anderson | Tulane University | 3.43 | 6.43 | 6–0 | 6.0 | ≥+3.00 | 0.0 | 98% |
| Kate Hennig | Texas A&M University | 0.98 | -2.02 | 0–6 | 0.0 | ≤−3.00 | 0.0 | >99% |
| Sofia Pando | Texas A&M University | 1.07 | -1.93 | 0–6 | 0.0 | ≤−3.00 | 0.0 | >99% |
| Sydney Krahulik | Texas A&M University | 1.18 | -1.82 | 0–6 | 0.0 | ≤−3.00 | 0.0 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Tulane University | Texas A&M University | 100% | |
| 2 | 2 | Tulane University | Texas A&M University | 100% | |
| 3 | 3 | Tulane University | Texas A&M University | 100% | |
| 4 | 4 | Tulane University | Texas A&M University | 100% | |
| 5 | 5 | Tulane University | Texas A&M University | 100% | |
| 6 | 6 | Tulane University | Texas A&M University | 100% |
| Team | Rec. | Wave | Aggies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulane University Green Wave | 1–0 | ✕ | W |
| Texas A&M University Aggies | 0–1 | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Wave | Aggies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulane University Green Wave | 1–0 | ✕ | W |
| Texas A&M University Aggies | 0–1 | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Wave | Aggies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulane University Green Wave | 1–0 | ✕ | W |
| Texas A&M University Aggies | 0–1 | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Wave | Aggies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulane University Green Wave | 1–0 | ✕ | W |
| Texas A&M University Aggies | 0–1 | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Wave | Aggies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulane University Green Wave | 1–0 | ✕ | W |
| Texas A&M University Aggies | 0–1 | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Wave | Aggies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulane University Green Wave | 1–0 | ✕ | W |
| Texas A&M University Aggies | 0–1 | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Aggies | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Aggies | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Aggies | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Aggies | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Aggies | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Aggies | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Tulane University | Green Wave | Ava Anderson '27 Lola Kohl '28 Oakley Cunningham '27 |
Catherine Anderson '26 Martha Hughes '28 Hope Breslin '26 |
|
Texas A&M University | Aggies | Kate Hennig '26 Sofia Pando '29 Sydney Krahulik '27 |
Elisabeth Ritenour '27 Menya Bird '26 Evelyn Dubois '27 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
