Thompson Trophy - CGA

HostCoast Guard
Date04/12/2025
TypeCross Regional
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Harvard University	Crimson	18–3
2	Boston College	Eagles	0–0
3	College of Charleston	Cougars	10–11
4	University of Rhode Island	Rams	10–11
5	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	10–11
6	Tufts University	Jumbos	9–12
7	Tulane University	Green Wave	8–13
8	Roger Williams University	Hawks	5–16

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 27,404 team race matches sailed before 2025-04-12, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 57 of 84 matches (68%) with a log-loss of 0.607 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.22 ± 0.24: a typical event, more orderly than 22% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Harvard University Crimson	1	12.68 school +0.30	Justin Callahan / Kennedy Leehealey 4.52 Mitchell Callahan / Rosella Irfan 4.01 Robby Meek / Christina Chen 3.95 12–3 Harrison Strom / Alexandra Dorofeev 3.52 6–0	88%	18–3 (86%)	−0.4
2	Boston College Eagles	2	11.66 school +0.37	Jack Redmond / Nick Budington 3.87 12–3 Peter Busch / Brendan Peary 3.91 11–4 Michael Kirkman / Matt Budington 3.77 11–4 Peter Joslin / Lanie Ferrarone 3.45 5–1 Alex Lech / Matt Budington 3.34 3–3 Michael Kirkman / Nick Budington 3.81 0–3 Jack Redmond / Brendan Peary 3.77 0–3	67%	14–7 (67%)	−0.1
3	College of Charleston Cougars	5	10.65 school +0.33	Noah Zittrer / Aidan Iaconis 3.57 Axel Stordahl / Lucy Elvart 3.09 9–9 Benjamin Dufour / Garrett Grenauer 3.63 9–9 Axel Stordahl / Grace Beard 3.10 1–2 Benjamin Dufour / Lucy Elvart 3.65 1–2	43%	10–11 (48%)	+1.0
4	University of Rhode Island Rams	7	10.18 school −0.12	Kerem Erkmen / Abbie Chipps 4.18 Christopher Chwalk / Ursula Budd 2.76 8–10 Tyler Nash / Eric Pohl 3.39 8–10 Owen Grainger / Parker Brown 2.70 2–1 Tyler Nash / Ursula Budd 3.20 2–1	32%	10–11 (48%)	+3.2
5	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	3	11.18 school +0.13, home +0.37	Colman Schofield / Charles Pohl 3.97 Bradley Whiteway / Sarah Krajewski 3.01 Nicholas Reeser / Daniel Neville 3.69	57%	10–11 (48%)	−2.0
6	Tufts University Jumbos	6	10.41 school +0.31	Kurt Stuebe / Naomi Pedersen 3.39 Wyatt Bischoff / Cindy Wang 3.12 Ben Mueller / Kate Castleberry 3.56 7–8 Ben Mueller / Courtland Doyle 3.60 2–4	38%	9–12 (43%)	+1.1
7	Tulane University Green Wave	4	10.78 school −0.06	Hamilton Barclay / Cj Ricci 3.69 Christian Ebbin / Gabriela Vassel 3.62 Kelly Holthus / Samantha Gardner 3.50	48%	8–13 (38%)	−2.0
8	Roger Williams University Hawks	8	9.96 school +0.43	Oliver Stokke / Ethan Martin 3.24 Jack Roman / Carter Sheehan 3.04 Tristan Mcdonald / Frankie Sparrow 3.20	28%	5–16 (24%)	−0.8

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
4	University of Rhode Island	10.18	10.89	10–11	6.8	+0.71	1.7	10%
6	Tufts University	10.41	10.66	9–12	7.9	+0.25	0.2	38%
3	College of Charleston	10.65	10.88	10–11	9.0	+0.24	0.2	40%
2	Boston College	11.66	11.64	14–7	14.1	−0.02	0.0	63%
1	Harvard University	12.68	12.51	18–3	18.4	−0.17	0.1	75%
8	Roger Williams University	9.96	9.74	5–16	5.8	−0.22	0.1	74%
7	Tulane University	10.78	10.33	8–13	10.0	−0.45	0.7	88%
5	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	11.18	10.73	10–11	12.0	−0.45	0.7	89%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Kerem Erkmen	University of Rhode Island	4.18	4.89	10–11	6.8	+0.71	1.7	10%
Alex Lech	Boston College	3.34	3.73	3–3	2.6	+0.39	0.1	53%
Ben Mueller	Tufts University	3.56	3.81	9–12	7.9	+0.25	0.2	38%
Axel Stordahl	College of Charleston	3.09	3.33	10–11	9.0	+0.24	0.2	40%
Benjamin Dufour	College of Charleston	3.63	3.87	10–11	9.0	+0.24	0.2	40%
Peter Joslin	Boston College	3.45	3.14	11–4	11.8	−0.31	0.2	80%
Bradley Whiteway	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	3.01	2.56	10–11	12.0	−0.45	0.7	89%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Tulane University	Tufts University	58%
1	2	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	22%	upset
1	3	College of Charleston	Boston College	22%	upset
1	4	University of Rhode Island	Harvard University	7%	upset
1	5	Tulane University	Roger Williams University	70%
1	6	Boston College	Tufts University	82%
1	7	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Rhode Island	72%
1	8	Harvard University	College of Charleston	90%
1	9	Boston College	Roger Williams University	88%
1	10	University of Rhode Island	Tulane University	37%	upset
1	11	Tufts University	College of Charleston	44%	upset
1	12	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Harvard University	16%	upset
1	13	Boston College	University of Rhode Island	78%
1	14	College of Charleston	Roger Williams University	67%
1	15	Tulane University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	40%	upset
1	16	Harvard University	Tufts University	88%
1	17	College of Charleston	University of Rhode Island	60%
1	18	Boston College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	57%
1	19	Tufts University	Roger Williams University	61%
1	20	Harvard University	Tulane University	83%
1	21	College of Charleston	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	37%	upset
1	22	University of Rhode Island	Tufts University	45%	upset
1	23	Boston College	Tulane University	68%
1	24	Harvard University	Roger Williams University	95%
1	25	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Tufts University	69%
1	26	College of Charleston	Tulane University	47%	upset
1	27	Roger Williams University	University of Rhode Island	50%	upset
1	28	Harvard University	Boston College	82%
2	29	Tulane University	Tufts University	58%
2	30	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Roger Williams University	77%
2	31	Boston College	College of Charleston	78%
2	32	Harvard University	University of Rhode Island	93%
2	33	Roger Williams University	Tulane University	31%	upset
2	34	Boston College	Tufts University	82%
2	35	University of Rhode Island	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	28%	upset
2	36	Harvard University	College of Charleston	90%
2	37	Roger Williams University	Boston College	12%	upset
2	38	University of Rhode Island	Tulane University	36%	upset
2	39	Tufts University	College of Charleston	44%	upset
2	40	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Harvard University	16%	upset
2	41	Boston College	University of Rhode Island	79%
2	42	College of Charleston	Roger Williams University	66%
2	43	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Tulane University	60%
2	44	Harvard University	Tufts University	88%
2	45	University of Rhode Island	College of Charleston	40%	upset
2	46	Boston College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	57%
2	47	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	39%	upset
2	48	Harvard University	Tulane University	83%
2	49	College of Charleston	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	37%	upset
2	50	Tufts University	University of Rhode Island	55%
2	51	Boston College	Tulane University	67%
2	52	Harvard University	Roger Williams University	94%
2	53	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Tufts University	68%
2	54	Tulane University	College of Charleston	53%
2	55	University of Rhode Island	Roger Williams University	50%	upset
2	56	Harvard University	Boston College	82%
3	57	Tufts University	Tulane University	42%	upset
3	58	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Roger Williams University	77%
3	59	Boston College	College of Charleston	78%
3	60	Harvard University	University of Rhode Island	93%
3	61	Tulane University	Roger Williams University	69%
3	62	Tufts University	Boston College	18%	upset
3	63	University of Rhode Island	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	28%	upset
3	64	Harvard University	College of Charleston	90%
3	65	Boston College	Roger Williams University	88%
3	66	Tulane University	University of Rhode Island	64%
3	67	College of Charleston	Tufts University	56%
3	68	Harvard University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	84%
3	69	University of Rhode Island	Boston College	21%	upset
3	70	College of Charleston	Roger Williams University	66%
3	71	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Tulane University	60%
3	72	Harvard University	Tufts University	88%
3	73	College of Charleston	University of Rhode Island	61%
3	74	Boston College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	57%
3	75	Tufts University	Roger Williams University	60%
3	76	Harvard University	Tulane University	83%
3	77	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	College of Charleston	63%
3	78	Tufts University	University of Rhode Island	55%
3	79	Boston College	Tulane University	67%
3	80	Harvard University	Roger Williams University	94%
3	81	Tufts University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	32%	upset
3	82	Tulane University	College of Charleston	54%
3	83	University of Rhode Island	Roger Williams University	49%	upset
3	84	Harvard University	Boston College	82%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Crimson	Eagles	Cougars	Rams	Bears	Jumbos	Wave	Hawks
Harvard University Crimson	5–2	✕	W	W	L	L	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	5–2	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	5–2	L	W	✕	W	W	L	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	3–4	W	L	L	✕	L	W	W	L
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	3–4	W	L	L	W	✕	W	L	L
Tufts University Jumbos	2–5	L	L	W	L	L	✕	L	W
Tulane University Green Wave	3–4	L	L	L	L	W	W	✕	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	2–5	L	L	L	W	W	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Crimson	Eagles	Cougars	Rams	Bears	Jumbos	Wave	Hawks
Harvard University Crimson	6–1	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	5–2	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	L
College of Charleston Cougars	2–5	L	L	✕	L	W	L	L	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	4–3	L	L	W	✕	W	L	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	4–3	W	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	2–5	L	L	W	W	L	✕	L	L
Tulane University Green Wave	2–5	L	L	W	L	L	W	✕	L
Roger Williams University Hawks	3–4	L	W	L	L	L	W	W	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Crimson	Eagles	Cougars	Rams	Bears	Jumbos	Wave	Hawks
Harvard University Crimson	7–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	4–3	L	✕	W	L	W	L	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	3–4	L	L	✕	W	L	W	L	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	3–4	L	W	L	✕	W	L	L	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	3–4	L	L	W	L	✕	L	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	5–2	L	W	L	W	W	✕	W	W
Tulane University Green Wave	3–4	L	L	W	W	L	L	✕	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Green Wave	2-3-5	def.	Jumbos	1-4-6
2	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
3	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
4	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
5	Green Wave	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
6	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
7	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Rams	2-3-6
8	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
9	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
10	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Green Wave	3-4-5
11	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
12	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
13	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
14	Cougars	1-3-6	def.	Hawks	2-4-5
15	Green Wave	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
16	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
17	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
18	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
19	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
20	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
21	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
22	Rams	1-3-6	def.	Jumbos	2-4-5
23	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
24	Crimson	1-3-4	def.	Hawks	2-5-6
25	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
26	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
27	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6 DNF
28	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
29	Green Wave	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
30	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
31	Eagles	2-3-5	def.	Cougars	1-4-6
32	Crimson	1-4-5	def.	Rams	2-3-6
33	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
34	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
35	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
36	Crimson	3-4-5	def.	Cougars	1-2-6 DSQ
37	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
38	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
39	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
40	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
41	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
42	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
43	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Green Wave	3-4-5
44	Crimson	1-4-5	def.	Jumbos	2-3-6
45	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
46	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
47	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
48	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
49	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
50	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
51	Eagles	1-3-5	def.	Green Wave	2-4-6
52	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
53	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
54	Green Wave	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
55	Rams	1-4-5	def.	Hawks	2-3-6
56	Crimson	2-3-5	def.	Eagles	1-4-6
57	Jumbos	2-3-5	def.	Green Wave	1-4-6
58	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
59	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
60	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
61	Green Wave	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
62	Jumbos	2-4-5	def.	Eagles	1-3-6 RAF
63	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6 DNF
64	Crimson	1-4-5	def.	Cougars	2-3-6
65	Eagles	1-4-5	def.	Hawks	2-3-6
66	Green Wave	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
67	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
68	Crimson	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
69	Rams	2-3-5	def.	Eagles	1-4-6
70	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
71	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
72	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
73	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
74	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
75	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
76	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
77	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
78	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
79	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
80	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
81	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
82	Green Wave	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
83	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
84	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Harvard University	Crimson	Harrison Strom '28 Justin Callahan '26 Mitchell Callahan '26 Robby Meek '27	Alexandra Dorofeev '25 Kennedy Leehealey '26 Rosella Irfan '27 Christina Chen '27
Boston College	Eagles	Alex Lech '28 Jack Redmond '26 Michael Kirkman '25 Peter Busch '26 Peter Joslin '26	Matt Budington '25 Nick Budington '25 Brendan Peary '27 Lanie Ferrarone '28
College of Charleston	Cougars	Axel Stordahl '24 Benjamin Dufour '26 Noah Zittrer '26	Lucy Elvart '28 Grace Beard '25 Garrett Grenauer '24 Aidan Iaconis '26
University of Rhode Island	Rams	Christopher Chwalk '28 Kerem Erkmen '25 Owen Grainger '28 Tyler Nash '26	Ursula Budd '27 Abbie Chipps '25 Parker Brown '26 Eric Pohl '28
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Bradley Whiteway '26 Colman Schofield '25 Nicholas Reeser '25	Sarah Krajewski '26 Charles Pohl '26 Daniel Neville '25
Tufts University	Jumbos	Ben Mueller '26 Kurt Stuebe '27 Wyatt Bischoff '27	Courtland Doyle '27 Kate Castleberry '28 Naomi Pedersen '25 Cindy Wang '25
Tulane University	Green Wave	Christian Ebbin '28 Hamilton Barclay '27 Kelly Holthus '27	Gabriela Vassel '28 Cj Ricci '25 Samantha Gardner '27
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Jack Roman '26 Oliver Stokke '26 Tristan Mcdonald '28	Carter Sheehan '27 Ethan Martin '28 Frankie Sparrow '27

Conditions — 04/12/2025 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 80% · Pressure 1013.6 hPa

Temperature

40°F

↑ 42°F ↓ 35°F

Feels like 29°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

14.4 kn

avg · max 17.0 kn

Gusts to 36.3 kn

From NE (35°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity80% Pressure1013.6 hPa Rain0.02 in

What this breeze does at Coast Guard — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 15 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Coast Guard in this breeze: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.20)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.20 means a rating gap counts about 18% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Coast Guard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (57 labelled fleet-race days at Coast Guard).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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