| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Stanford University | Cardinal | 4–0 |
| 2 |  |
College of Charleston | Cougars | 3–1 |
| 3 |  |
Jacksonville University | Fins | 1–3 |
| 4 |  |
Tulane University | Green Wave | 1–3 |
| 5 |  |
University of South Florida | Bulls | 1–3 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 22,017 team race matches sailed before 2024-03-02, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 8 of 10 matches (80%) with a log-loss of 0.348 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.13 ± 0.56: a typical event, more orderly than 58% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stanford University Cardinal | 1 | 10.95 school +0.42 | Michelle Lahrkamp / Alice Schmid 3.56 Vanessa Lahrkamp / Gwendolyn Donahue 3.87 Ellie Harned / Grace Austin 3.09 | 95% | 4–0 (100%) | +0.2 |
| 2 | College of Charleston Cougars | 2 | 8.72 school +0.34 | Grace Squires / Chloe Hudgins 2.90 Emma Tallman / Noelle Owen 2.79 Emily Alfortish / Lucy Klempen 2.69 | 62% | 3–1 (75%) | +0.5 |
| 3 | Jacksonville University Fins | 5 | 6.60 school −0.06 | Emily Allen / Reagan Carris 2.77 Kaitlyn Liebel / Fiona Froelich 1.94 Agija Elerte / Payton Ruth 1.94 | 18% | 1–3 (25%) | +0.3 |
| 4 | Tulane University Green Wave | 3 | 8.19 school +0.12 | Ava Anderson / Catherine Anderson Mia Hanes / Ellie Spearman 2.71 Samantha Gardner / Gillian Perrell | 51% | 1–3 (25%) | −1.0 |
| 5 | University of South Florida Bulls | 4 | 6.92 school −0.06 | Kay Brunsvold / Kalea Woodard 2.74 Heidi Hicks / Madisen Hamai 1.75 Emma Shakespeare / Hannah Marsicano 2.49 | 24% | 1–3 (25%) | +0.0 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stanford University | 10.95 | 13.95 | 4–0 | 3.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.3 | 82% |
| 2 | College of Charleston | 8.72 | 9.85 | 3–1 | 2.5 | +1.12 | 0.4 | 52% |
| 3 | Jacksonville University | 6.60 | 7.13 | 1–3 | 0.7 | +0.53 | 0.1 | 58% |
| 5 | University of South Florida | 6.92 | 7.00 | 1–3 | 1.0 | +0.08 | 0.0 | 72% |
| 4 | Tulane University | 8.19 | 6.53 | 1–3 | 2.0 | −1.65 | 1.2 | 98% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ellie Harned | Stanford University | 3.09 | 6.09 | 4–0 | 3.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.3 | 82% |
| Agija Elerte | Jacksonville University | 1.94 | 2.47 | 1–3 | 0.7 | +0.53 | 0.1 | 58% |
| Ava Anderson | Tulane University | 2.42 | 0.76 | 1–3 | 2.0 | −1.65 | 1.2 | 98% |
| Mia Hanes | Tulane University | 2.71 | 1.06 | 1–3 | 2.0 | −1.65 | 1.2 | 98% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Cardinal | Cougars | Fins | Wave | Bulls | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stanford University Cardinal | 4–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| College of Charleston Cougars | 3–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Jacksonville University Fins | 1–3 | L | L | ✕ | L | W |
| Tulane University Green Wave | 1–3 | L | L | W | ✕ | L |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 1–3 | L | L | L | W | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Fins | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Green Wave | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Fins | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Bulls | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Green Wave | 2-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulls | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Fins | 3-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Cougars | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Green Wave | 1-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Fins | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Stanford University | Cardinal | Ellie Harned '26 Michelle Lahrkamp '23 Vanessa Lahrkamp '26 |
Grace Austin '24 Alice Schmid '27 Gwendolyn Donahue '24 |
|
College of Charleston | Cougars | Emily Alfortish '25 Emma Tallman '25 Grace Squires '24 |
Lucy Klempen '24 Noelle Owen '24 Chloe Hudgins '24 |
|
Jacksonville University | Fins | Agija Elerte '26 Emily Allen '25 Kaitlyn Liebel '26 |
Payton Ruth '26 Reagan Carris '26 Fiona Froelich '28 |
|
Tulane University | Green Wave | Ava Anderson '27 Mia Hanes '24 Samantha Gardner '27 |
Catherine Anderson '26 Ellie Spearman '25 Gillian Perrell '24 |
|
University of South Florida | Bulls | Emma Shakespeare '24 Heidi Hicks '25 Kay Brunsvold '25 |
Hannah Marsicano '24 Madisen Hamai '26 Kalea Woodard '24 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
