| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Roger Williams University | Hawks | 8–1 |
| 2 |  |
Yale University | Bulldogs | 7–1 |
| 3 |  |
Tufts University | Jumbos | 5–4 |
| 4 |  |
Harvard University | Crimson | 5–4 |
| 5 |  |
U. S. Coast Guard Academy | Bears | 5–4 |
| 6 |  |
Massachusetts Institute of Technology | Engineers | 4–5 |
| 7 |  |
Brown University | Bears | 3–5 |
| 7 |  |
Stanford University | Cardinal | 3–5 |
| 9 |  |
Boston College | Eagles | 3–6 |
| 10 |  |
University of Rhode Island | Rams | 0–8 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 23,158 team race matches sailed before 2024-03-23, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 26 of 43 matches (60%) with a log-loss of 0.695 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.67 ± 0.30: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 6% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tufts University | 9.30 | 11.15 | 5–4 | 1.9 | +1.85 | 4.4 | 1% |
| 1 | Roger Williams University | 11.44 | 13.12 | 8–1 | 5.8 | +1.68 | 2.4 | 9% |
| 2 | Yale University | 11.71 | 13.08 | 7–1 | 5.4 | +1.37 | 1.4 | 18% |
| 6 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology | 9.84 | 10.65 | 4–5 | 2.7 | +0.80 | 0.8 | 25% |
| 5 | U. S. Coast Guard Academy | 10.59 | 11.09 | 5–4 | 4.1 | +0.50 | 0.3 | 39% |
| 9 | Boston College | 10.20 | 10.01 | 3–6 | 3.3 | −0.19 | 0.0 | 74% |
| 4 | Harvard University | 11.91 | 10.88 | 5–4 | 6.7 | −1.03 | 1.3 | 96% |
| 7 | Brown University | 11.50 | 9.84 | 3–5 | 5.5 | −1.66 | 3.1 | 99% |
| 7 | Stanford University | 11.85 | 9.89 | 3–5 | 6.0 | −1.96 | 4.3 | >99% |
| 10 | University of Rhode Island | 9.14 | 6.14 | 0–8 | 1.5 | ≤−3.00 | 2.5 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Mueller | Tufts University | 3.28 | 5.12 | 5–4 | 1.9 | +1.85 | 4.4 | 1% |
| Aidan Hoogland | Roger Williams University | 3.50 | 5.19 | 8–1 | 5.8 | +1.68 | 2.4 | 9% |
| Carlos De Castro | Roger Williams University | 3.62 | 5.31 | 8–1 | 5.8 | +1.68 | 2.4 | 9% |
| Lachlain Mcgranahan | Harvard University | 4.17 | 5.85 | 8–1 | 5.8 | +1.68 | 2.4 | 9% |
| Peter Joslin | Boston College | 3.10 | 2.90 | 3–6 | 3.3 | −0.19 | 0.0 | 74% |
| Kerem Erkmen | University of Rhode Island | 3.44 | 0.44 | 0–8 | 1.5 | ≤−3.00 | 2.5 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Hawks | Bulldogs | Jumbos | Crimson | Bears | Engineers | Bears | Cardinal | Eagles | Rams | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 8–1 | ✕ | W | W | L | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Yale University Bulldogs | 8–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos | 5–4 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | L | L | W |
| Harvard University Crimson | 5–4 | W | L | L | ✕ | W | W | L | W | L | W |
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 5–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers | 4–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Brown University Bears | 4–5 | L | L | L | W | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Stanford University Cardinal | 3–6 | L | L | W | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Boston College Eagles | 3–6 | L | L | W | W | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| University of Rhode Island Rams | 0–9 | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Hawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Eagles | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Engineers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cardinal | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Jumbos | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Crimson | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Hawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 1-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cardinal | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Engineers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Crimson | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Bears | def. | |
Cardinal | ||
| 12 | |
Hawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rams | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Eagles | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Jumbos | 2-3-6 |
| 15 | |
Crimson | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Engineers | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cardinal | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Hawks | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Jumbos | 1-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Engineers | 1-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Eagles | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Crimson | 2-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Bulldogs | def. | |
Rams | ||
| 22 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Jumbos | 3-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Engineers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Hawks | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Eagles | 2-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Crimson | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 26 | |
Jumbos | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Rams | 1-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Engineers | 3-4-5 |
| 28 | |
Cardinal | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 2-3-6 |
| 29 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 DNF | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 30 | |
Crimson | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hawks | 4-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Engineers | 3-4-5 |
| 32 | |
Eagles | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Rams | 1-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 1-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Hawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cardinal | 4-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Crimson | 4-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Engineers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 2-4-6 |
| 37 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 38 | |
Hawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| 39 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Crimson | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Cardinal | 1-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-5 |
| 42 | |
Hawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Engineers | 3-4-6 |
| 43 | |
Jumbos | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bears | 2-4-6 |
| 44 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 45 | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Crimson | 1-4-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
